[sunrico90]

Here is the link to the previous one: http://www.city-data.com/forum/flori...hread-jan.html

[hiknapster]

Okay! I'll start.

Here's a very dire prediction.

"I believe that this mess may not play itself out until 2011. That's several years further out than most housing prognosticators suggest, but I think the inventory of unsold houses is greater than anybody says -- or knows -- because there are several layers of unsold houses that are not even on the market yet. One layer is comprised of the group of would-be sellers who haven't put their homes up for sale because they know nothing is moving. Another is made up of investors, whose houses are sitting empty or are rented. These guys want to get out, too, but they can't sell, so they are making the best of a bad situation. Then there is another group which I'll call future foreclosures, or soon-to-be lender-owned properties."

Housing market slump may last longer than most predict - MarketWatch

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by hiknapster

Okay! I'll start.

Here's a very dire prediction.

"I believe that this mess may not play itself out until 2011. That's several years further out than most housing prognosticators suggest, but I think the inventory of unsold houses is greater than anybody says -- or knows -- because there are several layers of unsold houses that are not even on the market yet. One layer is comprised of the group of would-be sellers who haven't put their homes up for sale because they know nothing is moving. Another is made up of investors, whose houses are sitting empty or are rented. These guys want to get out, too, but they can't sell, so they are making the best of a bad situation. Then there is another group which I'll call future foreclosures, or soon-to-be lender-owned properties."

Housing market slump may last longer than most predict - MarketWatch

Will the current situation evolve in a way that might prevent the same cycle from taken place?

Do we need greater GOV involvement? Big brother looking out for our best interesr...

[Wild Style]

^^

Well, it could always happen again IF the govt. does not prevent banks from offering exotic loans of any type to the public sector. It should be federal law that only 30 yr fixed loans are available. It should become law that at least 20% down is needed and the person(s) applying for the loan can not buy a house that is more than 2.5 to 3 times their annual income. That would stop this from ever happening again. I am sure there are SOME cases where it could be more beneficial to take out a exotic type loan. But the it isn't worth it considering what could happen again.

[Mike Peterson]

Why not go a step further and make it that you can not get a loan for a home?
You have to pay cash.

And you can only buy a home if you make over $100,000 a year.

Of course I am being sarcastic here but you can not put those types of restrictions on home purchases it is just not realistic.

[bellasmom]

in that there is only so much land to be lived upon? Even though Broward County has seen a population decrease in the past two years, don't you all think just by the global human population increase at 85 million people added to the planet/year that more and more people will want/need to reside here in South Florida? Did you know that 50% of the human population lives within 50 miles of a coastline? And, here in South Florida we are all within that boundary and again, there is only so much land.....

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Why not go a step further and make it that you can not get a loan for a home?
You have to pay cash.

And you can only buy a home if you make over $100,000 a year.

Of course I am being sarcastic here but you can not put those types of restrictions on home purchases it is just not realistic.

30 yr fixed has worked for YEARS with absolutely no problem so why can't they make that the standard again? What you are saying defies history. It was all fine until these exotic loans came into play, and those should be out lawed.

Originally Posted by bellasmom

in that there is only so much land to be lived upon? Even though Broward County has seen a population decrease in the past two years, don't you all think just by the global human population increase at 85 million people added to the planet/year that more and more people will want/need to reside here in South Florida? Did you know that 50% of the human population lives within 50 miles of a coastline? And, here in South Florida we are all within that boundary and again, there is only so much land.....

There are many towns along the costs of America that have seen huge, sustained population decreases. It is not just about living along a coast line. The cost of living, along with good job opportunities must be in place as well. For Broward county, those factors are not there, so people are leaving and will continue to leave. Until Broward can figure out how to fix its economy thats pretty much how its gonna stay.

great article on jumbo arms (Exotic loans for the rich). As has been said before, sub prime was just the appetizer to this entire mess. You may have to register with NYT to read it, not sure

link

[compelled to reply]

Originally Posted by bellasmom

in that there is only so much land to be lived upon? Even though Broward County has seen a population decrease in the past two years, don't you all think just by the global human population increase at 85 million people added to the planet/year that more and more people will want/need to reside here in South Florida? Did you know that 50% of the human population lives within 50 miles of a coastline? And, here in South Florida we are all within that boundary and again, there is only so much land.....

The economy isn't sustainable enough to attract new residents, so people are leaving instead. No room= no growth in the first place. Just an aging population/families with graduating kids/etc can cause a significant population decrease in a place that is "built out". Prices will keep on going down as long as demand keeps on going down and income levels don't dramatically increase, no matter how much or how little land.

[crystalblue]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

^^

Well, it could always happen again IF the govt. does not prevent banks from offering exotic loans of any type to the public sector. It should be federal law that only 30 yr fixed loans are available. It should become law that at least 20% down is needed and the person(s) applying for the loan can not buy a house that is more than 2.5 to 3 times their annual income. That would stop this from ever happening again. I am sure there are SOME cases where it could be more beneficial to take out a exotic type loan. But the it isn't worth it considering what could happen again.

that would prevent many non-homeowners from ever buying a place in many of Americas larger cities.

in Cali, 20% of 600k is 120k, just for a downpayment

and if the avg family in Cali is making 100k a yr (to be very generous), then they could only afford a home for 300k tops.

not many of those left.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by crystalblue

that would prevent many non-homeowners from ever buying a place in many of Americas larger cities.

in Cali, 20% of 600k is 120k, just for a downpayment

and if the avg family in Cali is making 100k a yr (to be very generous), then they could only afford a home for 300k tops.

not many of those left.

First if the people in a given neighborhood or area are not making 200,000 dollars annually then that home is over priced. Hence the prices will fall.

Secondly no where is it written that everyone should own a home. If you can not afford a home then rent, period.

Lastly, as said before, 20% down and 3 times annual income (price of house) is the historical measure of qualifying for a mortgage. Once that is back in place, prices will be pushed down. That is natural supply and demand given income.

But as I said again and I want to stress this. Not everyone is supposed to own a home. No where is it written in stone that everyone should own a home. Again if people can not buy, homes will sit and prices will depreciate until they come back in line with the above mentioned formula.