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Old 12-14-2006, 11:11 AM
 
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Vpcats, I agree that there are some very wealthy and successful people in Miami who are Cuban and of Cuban descent. However, most of the successful hispanics are American educated and speak English as well as anyone. Mel Martinez is a fine example. I personally know several others who still live in Miami. I don't dispute this. However, there I don't think you can dispute that the vast majority of people in the Dade area who can only speak Spanish, are minimum wage laborers. I'm not saying that there is anything wrong with them or that they are not hard workers, but without being fluent in English, their avenues for success are virtually non-existant.

I hate to point out the obvious, but fact is that Anglos are not moving to Miami. They are migrating out at a fairly rappid pace these days. In fact, I do not see any real significant migration of hispanics to Miami from other areas of Florida. So, where does this leave Miami? What will Miami look like in 5 years; 10 years, or even 20 years? Will American corporations locate to Miami over Tampa, Orlando or Jacksonville? What about non-hispanic foreign comanies? Perhaps.

I have been a lifelong resident of Orlando. Yet, I would predict that Tampa could attract the bigger companies to its area than Orlando can. I think Tampa will eventually become the largest city in Florida for a number of reasons.
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Old 12-14-2006, 11:58 AM
 
Location: Lots of sun and palm trees with occasional hurricane :)
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Prichard a lot of what you say IS true and I do agree as well as disagree with individual points. Generalizations, however, do not sit well with me. Yep, Mel Martinez and the Coca Cola guy (forget his name) and Kellogg's (maybe it's the same person???)... and a few others.
The specific people I was referring to in Miami, are actually NOT American educated and do not speak English, but thanks to the Cuban gov't (sarcasm intended), they do speak Russian, Czech, Italian, French, Portuguese....
and despite their lack of fluent English, they have made very well for themselves, but true this is a select group of people and not the majority of the hispanics here.
I guess Miami could conceivably become a very divided land but it will not disappear and it will not lose that much ground.
What's going to happen to Texas and California?
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Old 12-14-2006, 01:00 PM
 
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Post true

Quote:
Originally Posted by vpcats View Post
I beg to differ with this part of the post. Maybe Miami doesn't need all those English speaking people because there are plenty of spanish speaking people with enough money to keep buying. We have all of Latin America with lots of money at our doorstep. We have every other nationality with money who wants our sunshine.
Also, I personally happen to know quite a few business owners, big businesses, engineering contractors and so forth, who happen to not speak any English at all. But, they have smarts, and they live well, and they travel, and they blah blah blah. They have the brains to "hire" people who do speak English while the spanish only speaker has the huge pockets!
How true! We met a man recently on a trip who owns a thriving business in China. He flies over twice/month from his home in Arizona to oversee things and owns a home in China too but does not speak any Chinese. He told me he has employees who speak for him.
Which made me think two things:
1) Better trust those people.
2) Some people just have too much money.
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Old 12-14-2006, 02:09 PM
 
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You raise some great questions Vpcats! Frankly I don't know what is going to happen in the areas you mention. I speculate that the children, grandchildren, or great grandchildren will eventually learn to speak English and be integrated into the rest of the country. If not, then these regions will truly remain divided and probably become very poor. When immigrants assimilate into our country, our country becomes stronger. But, if we continue down this trend against full assimilation and intigration, we will become a weak, divided nation. No other group of immigrants, other than latinos, have resisted speaking English. Intigration and assimilation into their new country was very important to these other immigrants. Not so with the latinos. This is creating a problem and a backlash of anti-immigration sentiment that will probably cause the pendulum to swing more toward isolationism in the next 10 years. That's my prediction.
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Old 12-14-2006, 07:13 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Prichard View Post
Let's revisit this in twelve months.
Oh, we most certainly will. I accept the Prichard challenge.
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Old 12-15-2006, 06:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Oh, we most certainly will. I accept the Prichard challenge


I'm glad to see that you've accepted my challenge. But it really isn't much of a challenge unless you are willing to put your reputation on the line and make a (concise) prediction of what the housing market will be like 12 months from now. Do you have what it takes?
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Old 12-15-2006, 07:22 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,638 posts, read 10,692,938 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prichard View Post

I'm glad to see that you've accepted my challenge. But it really isn't much of a challenge unless you are willing to put your reputation on the line and make a (concise) prediction of what the housing market will be like 12 months from now. Do you have what it takes?
Which housing market in particular are you talking about, central Florida, Florida as a whole in general, the United States in general, the world, or any number of local or regional markets individually or just one?

Previously it seems you claimed that the local conditions are the driving force in the real estate market - that may indeed be the case, overriding other factors such as macroeconomic and general financial conditions - and then offered a brief analysis of some areas in central Florida in particular.

But now precisely which market do you refer to?
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Old 12-15-2006, 07:38 AM
 
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The market(s) that I am commenting on are Central Florida (Orlando, Tampa, Daytona and surrounding areas), South Florida, and on a broader basis, All of Florida.
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Old 12-15-2006, 08:16 AM
 
Location: western East Roman Empire
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Prichard View Post
The market(s) that I am commenting on are Central Florida (Orlando, Tampa, Daytona and surrounding areas), South Florida, and on a broader basis, All of Florida.
Thanks. I'll try, and perhaps a few others will join me, to come with a few precise, concise predictions for the next twelve months on one or more of these markets, in the next few days, perhaps over the weekend.

Will you do the same?
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Old 12-15-2006, 01:35 PM
 
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Ok. Here are my predictions. I believe that Central Florida is already seeing a slight rebound in home prices. Houses are selling, sellers haven't had to lower their prices much more to get them to sell. I think the Fence Sitters are getting a little nervous, and the pace that they have been crossing the "DON'T BUY NOW" picket line has increased a little. Anyway, I predicted about 2 months ago that the housing market (Tampa, Orlando, Daytona, Ocala, Jacksonville, Sarasota) will be well on its way to recover in 8 months; and continue to maintain the same thing for 6 months out from today.

It may be a while before Pensacola recovers. It got hit hard by Ivan, and the memory of Katrina will continue to impact that region for a couple of years, at least. Dade and Broward counties are in their own worlds. They have problems with expansion because they abbut up to the Everglades. Hurricanes are more of a worry down there, and the Hispanic dominance of Dade county may open some doors to Hispanic immigrants, but close doors to normal Anglo and other immigrant migration to that area. I see that market rebounding some, but leveling off more so than other areas of the state. Not much growth potential down there.

Ft. Myers and Naples may go into hibernation for a while. I don't have any great predictions for these areas, but hey, there may be others that know more about these areas than I do.

5-10 years out.

I predict that Tampa will become the largest City in Florida. It will have a stronger business center than Orlando or Jacksonville. This will be due to oil exploration in the Gulf and it's port. I don't think New Orleans will ever return as a major economic center, and I see Tampa becoming home to New Orleans trasplanted professionals. It may even become a super city in the oil and gas arenas.

Tampa and Orlando will become more tied together, with Lakeland providing supporting industrial and storage/warehouse for both of these cities. Tamap-Orlando will resemble Dallas - Ft. Worth, but both will be better quality cities.

Orlando will continue to spread out. My biggest fear about Orlando is when Disney "jumps the shark". At some point, I believe there will be a bigger better theme park attraction that will make Disney World "second rate". Then what Orlando? Orlando still relies too much on Disney World. I was out there recently, many of the attactions are starting to get long in the tooth. I was dissapointed at how little has been done to modernize the life-blood of Disney, it's main theme park. Take Disney out of the picture, and you will have one horribly blighted South Orlando, and a dead Kissimmee. Orlando will do just fine over the next 5 years, but in the long run, it is very vulnerable.
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