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Old 12-15-2006, 05:55 PM
Location: WPB, FL. Dreaming of Oil city, PA
2,909 posts, read 12,971,713 times
Reputation: 991


There wont be another theme park in Orlando, the land is way too expensive now. Disney world bought lots of land 50 years ago when it was still all farmland. If theres going to be another theme park, its gonna have to be in some rural farm up north and people will have to fly there to visit the park.

My prediction is house prices will drop by a third in the next few months because hurricane insurance is set to double in March. The itll double again next year and house prices will be half of what they are today. I wouldnt buy any Florida houses anytime soon. Even if prices dont drop as much as I predict, who cares you can get nice houses much cheaper in Texas, Georgia, NC, TN, etc.
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Old 12-16-2006, 06:19 AM
944 posts, read 3,531,633 times
Reputation: 578
Originally Posted by Prichard View Post

I'm glad to see that you've accepted my challenge. But it really isn't much of a challenge unless you are willing to put your reputation on the line and make a (concise) prediction of what the housing market will be like 12 months from now. Do you have what it takes?
I was already specific in the bubble poll thread. Remember, there is always lag. I saw "bubble" last December (2005) when people were still saying "Florida real estate is hot!" I don't believe the next 12 months will reveal too much in terms of pricing. Volume will be, and already is, a totally different story. The REAL slide begins in spring when the "market recovery" goes silent. It's already being called the "Silent Spring." The doubters will have something to see then.

Do you find this 3 year prediction acceptable (Not as in "agree," but are you willing to accept a 3 year timeframe?)?

December, 15 2010: The median home price for the entire state of Florida will have decreased by at least 25%.

Last edited by Muggy; 12-16-2006 at 06:24 AM.. Reason: Clarity
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Old 12-16-2006, 07:36 PM
Location: WPB, FL. Dreaming of Oil city, PA
2,909 posts, read 12,971,713 times
Reputation: 991
a 25% drop wont make Florida affordable for me, especially if hurricane insurance keeps doubling. Other costs of living is high as well
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Old 12-17-2006, 01:30 AM
Location: western East Roman Empire
6,549 posts, read 10,620,733 times
Reputation: 5639
As I mentioned before, there are factors at the macro, statewide, regional, and local level that will impact the course of house buy prices in the next year or two.

At the macro-level, economic growth, interest rates, and the general level of indebtedness all have weights, right through to the local level. Economic growth is slowing at best while interest rates probably play a neutral role right now. There is a certain probability of a recession, but policymakers also have the necessary tools to roll-over the credit bubble and other asset price bubbles (real estate, the stock market). The overall impact on real estate prices is neutral: prices don't move much, with a slight downward bias.

Statewide the biggest issue is the insurance debacle. It is a real wild card: what if there are more hurricanes in 2007 and/or 2008? Then all bets are off. Even assuming no hurricanes and a political will to "fix" the problem, can it really be "solved" in a year or two? It seems that insurance rates are set to increase in 2007 and 2008 regardless of whether there are more hurricanes. The most likely impact on real estate prices is negative, neutral at best.

Regionally, southern Florida real estate prices have by far reached unaffordability levels for the majority of people and a significant portion of the middle class is in deep trouble or leaving. While it is true that a certain percentage of the population - from business owners, high level professionals, executives and engineers, etc. in the right sectors, politicians & bureaucrats, certain retires, and certain foreigners - can afford regardless of high prices and expenses, it was the flood of credit to the majority that expanded the bubble. This factor has been diminished at best, even if policymakers decide to continue to inflate their way out of some of the economic imbalances facing the country. Overall impact is negative or neutral at best: I just don't see how a critical mass of people can afford all the new $450,000-700,000 townhouses, for example, still being built, even within range of eyesight.

Locally, we take into account a range of issues from type of dwelling, distance from the coast, strategic location, age of building, quality of neighborhood, current wealth, the outlook for income, and, in short, the competitive position of those looking to either buy or sell, this last factor probably the ultimate arbiter of a real market. As some have alluded to on previous posts and other threads, these types of conditions are also and always important factors, regardless of macro conditions. So overall, the impact is neutral, probably on a pace with general economic growth and inflation (a so-called "normal" market).

Overall, then, I expect real estate prices in southern Florida over the next year or two to remain stagnant at current levels or drift downward, say 5%-15%. They may decline sharply if there is a recession and especially if there is another hurricane(s). They may drift upwards if economic growth remains in the 2%-3% range and if policymakers stoke up their recent inflationary policies.

Some my base-line scenario is stagnation or a downward drift of 5%-15% in real estate prices over the next year or two.

I guess a 28% chance of a sharper correction, 15%-30%, and a 20% chance of an upward drift in the next year or two. I think statistically the chances of another hurricane are actually very low (2004 and 2005 may prove to be freaks), but if another one (or ones) does occur, any correction may extend further.

Last edited by bale002; 12-17-2006 at 01:42 AM..
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Old 08-16-2007, 03:46 PM
Location: Martinique, in the Caribbean
18 posts, read 83,325 times
Reputation: 12
Prichard, why did you write:
"Melbourne went through a growth spurt in the '90's. It seems to be able to sustain itself a little better than the other towns mentioned, and it isn't a true retirement town, nor is a bedroom community to any larger town. I've allways expected big things to happen in Melbourne, but it still seems to be a bit of a sleeper."

What were you expecting from Melbourne really?
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Old 08-16-2007, 06:14 PM
975 posts, read 3,429,347 times
Reputation: 263
I don't know whether I hope you're right or wrong. I want to move to central Fla. and hope it expands, but at the same time I don't want to see the environment get trashed further if it turns into a megacenter.

Originally Posted by Prichard View Post
Ok. Here are my predictions. I believe that Central Florida is already seeing a slight rebound in home prices. Houses are selling, sellers haven't had to lower their prices much more to get them to sell. I think the Fence Sitters are getting a little nervous, and the pace that they have been crossing the "DON'T BUY NOW" picket line has increased a little. Anyway, I predicted about 2 months ago that the housing market (Tampa, Orlando, Daytona, Ocala, Jacksonville, Sarasota) will be well on its way to recover in 8 months; and continue to maintain the same thing for 6 months out from today.

It may be a while before Pensacola recovers. It got hit hard by Ivan, and the memory of Katrina will continue to impact that region for a couple of years, at least. Dade and Broward counties are in their own worlds. They have problems with expansion because they abbut up to the Everglades. Hurricanes are more of a worry down there, and the Hispanic dominance of Dade county may open some doors to Hispanic immigrants, but close doors to normal Anglo and other immigrant migration to that area. I see that market rebounding some, but leveling off more so than other areas of the state. Not much growth potential down there.

Ft. Myers and Naples may go into hibernation for a while. I don't have any great predictions for these areas, but hey, there may be others that know more about these areas than I do.

5-10 years out.

I predict that Tampa will become the largest City in Florida. It will have a stronger business center than Orlando or Jacksonville. This will be due to oil exploration in the Gulf and it's port. I don't think New Orleans will ever return as a major economic center, and I see Tampa becoming home to New Orleans trasplanted professionals. It may even become a super city in the oil and gas arenas.

Tampa and Orlando will become more tied together, with Lakeland providing supporting industrial and storage/warehouse for both of these cities. Tamap-Orlando will resemble Dallas - Ft. Worth, but both will be better quality cities.

Orlando will continue to spread out. My biggest fear about Orlando is when Disney "jumps the shark". At some point, I believe there will be a bigger better theme park attraction that will make Disney World "second rate". Then what Orlando? Orlando still relies too much on Disney World. I was out there recently, many of the attactions are starting to get long in the tooth. I was dissapointed at how little has been done to modernize the life-blood of Disney, it's main theme park. Take Disney out of the picture, and you will have one horribly blighted South Orlando, and a dead Kissimmee. Orlando will do just fine over the next 5 years, but in the long run, it is very vulnerable.
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Old 08-16-2007, 06:39 PM
Location: Venice, Fl
1,497 posts, read 3,090,801 times
Reputation: 1389
Prichard, I'm curious what your experience in Sarasota county is ? Are you speculating from a distance with numbers from your local paper or just guessing that 2 months ago (6 months to go) Sarasota will recover. I will take that bet, average income here is less than 42k per year and homes increased up to 62% in many areas of Sarasota. Local job market can't support the housing market. Many working in the service industry here are gone leaving for greener pastures where they can earn a living wage. If the working class continue to be forced from the market who will buy in Sarasota to make the market rebound ?? ARM's are estimated to reset in the 1st quarter of 2008, with Florida #4 in the country for forclosure already. I predict many in Sarasota are in way over their heads and when their ARMs reset we will see more foreclosure and more just walking away from the debt. In order for Sarasota to maintain, prices will have to come way down in order for average people to afford it here. I live in Sarasota and have been following the local market here for a while, things are pretty slow. Sure, realtors will tell you it's a great time to buy but prices are continuing to drop. Properties are still not selling and appreciation rates are dropping at a steady pace. A good time to buy is not when the market is inflated the way Sarasota's market was inflated. I say 2 years for Sarasota to recover and even then the market will leave many looking in other counties due to high taxes and lack of decent jobs. I may be wrong but it will be interesting to see what happens in the months to come.
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Old 08-17-2007, 03:07 PM
Location: US
3,092 posts, read 3,442,548 times
Reputation: 1639
My first home was $40,000 and was worried about making the mortgage payment. The second we bought in 1996 was $84,000 in what was then the coveted Conway area. This was before Waterford Lakes, Lake Nona, etc. We are still in a very good area in Conway with good schools, etc., but it's not the "hot" places like Oviedo and UCF area.

I was in the Waterford Lakes Super Target today looking for school uniforms (I've been to 7 Targets looking for my son's size of khaki or blue shorts in the past 2-1/2 weeks). I am amazed at how that area has grown! Two bad accidents--one was an SUV in the back seat of a Toyota--trunk disappeared
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Old 08-17-2007, 05:32 PM
975 posts, read 3,429,347 times
Reputation: 263
I don't understand why people would expect/demand that a place like Florida with so much to offer would also be the cheapest place in the country? How unrealistic.
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Old 08-17-2007, 06:56 PM
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 23,746,388 times
Reputation: 4899
Don't forget, less than 10 years ago there were places that seemed cheap. All of Florida was a good deal 100 years ago, then it started to become unrealistic. First in Miami, then the whole state. Besides the good things, don't forget about the hurricanes, heat, insects, lack of resources, low elevation, etc. It's not perfect.
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