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Old 04-06-2008, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Pittsburgh, PA
1,303 posts, read 2,664,799 times
Reputation: 1131

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Frank,

Future retirees will move to Florida to obtain those things that they do not have in their "home" states. They will search for a better quality of life that is/will be affordable, safe, and prestigious. Being able flee the cold winter months has always been a status symbol for past generations (like the Cadillac in the two car garage). Snowbirds (including those who eventually became full-time residents) helped to build Florida, and they have been an integral part of the growth and state economy, but in some ways, have lead to its disintegration as well.

You seem to tie the lack of a state income tax as a real magnet for retirees to be drawn to Florida. Nothing could be further from the truth. The pensions that we receive are not subject to state income taxes in most, if not all, states. Most of us will be drawn to states with low property taxes... an issue for which Florida has yet to address.

Memories are still strong from the visions of all of the devastating hurricanes that have afflicted the south in general, and Florida/New Orleans specifically, that the typical boomer will at least hesitate before buying a home in Florida. The challenges of finding affordable home insurance will further emphasize a level of concern.

The retiring boomer will be living off the money earned during his/her working years. Our biggest fear is that we spend more than we have, enduring our twilight years leading a parsimonious and dependent lifestyle. If the boomer can afford the Florida economy of the future, he/she will need better odds than just sunshine and warm winters.
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Old 04-06-2008, 10:03 PM
 
58 posts, read 160,998 times
Reputation: 31
You speak of stock option retiress, yes, 200,000 usa bank employees will ne laid off in 2008, and most fortunate upper middle class folks do not even feel thier 401k's IRA's and KEOGHs are safe any longer as FDIC only insures to 100,000 USD and the banks have made bad RE loans for 10 years now and can only 'write-off' so much debt 23 billion, and let go so many bank employees 200,000 nationwide.
Maybe all those rich 50% of 55 year old divorces have money, NOPE, last time I looked all the 50% of USA DIVORCED deadbeat derilict dads were heading south to Florida to EVADE CHILD SUPPORT and live in florida parks, beaches, florida forests, cars, vans, suv's and rob seniors and floridians by getting jobs as bad property managers, lying realtors, fraud mortgage brokers, crooked handymen and dishonest RV and used car salesmen. Or it is all the 60 million divorced single moms you think have great stock options and pension plans, if so, why do the 60 million divorced and single moms live on the government dole BELOW the national poverty level??????
Rich people with stock options and good retirement packages live in UNINCORPORATED AREAS and DO NOT pay GOUGER property taxes on fraudulently assessed inflated home prices, people with good retirement packages live in LOW TAX areas and build BIG GATES and FENCES around thier homes and they do NOT pay 150, 250 to 550 per month to crooked property managers for 35 dollars worth of garbage removal and 20 dollars per month worth of ineffective bug spraying.
The 55 and older crowed can not afford to air condition big homes, they get skin cancer from too much sun and esp. the rich retirees, they do not care to CATCH INFECTIOUS WATERBORN LUNG BODY AND SKIN DISEASES from sharing community pools that are not properly chlorinated nor maintained to kill waterborn infectious diseases and pathogens.
And seniors do not care to get bitten to death by no see ums, sand fleas, biting mosquitos, sand flies, scabies, tungas penetrans contagious skin disease, zoonotic transmission animal mange mites or deal with red tide on gulf coat and jellyfish and erosion on the east coast beaches. HEALTH is number 1 priority to most people over 55, rich or poor, and the rich are rich because they do NOT pay gouger fees, gouger taxes, gouger prices, gouger fees, gouger assessments, gouger rents, gouger land fees, and the poor over 55, have nothing, no money, for the gougers to rob.
So yes Florida will continue to get retirees, every homeless derilict ill broke bustout no money drowning in debt bum who can not afford a heating bill up north will arrive from NJ, NY, MA, PA, Ohio, NH, Indiana, IL, Wisc. MN, SD, ND, IA, TN, ME, KY, etc etc etc, these no money retirees over 55 will get on a Greyhound bus for 50 to 70 bucks and " retire " in Florida, especially from Oct to June, Florida will get all the no money hobos from the ALL the upper states combined.
God help you enrot gougers who think 'money from the north' will bail your good ole boy gougers out of the wringers they are in. Florida has no buses for seniors and many jails are closing making crime in Florida some of the worst crime in the nation, comparable to LA, Detroit and Chicago.
Dream on Frank, 80% of the 'rich' northerners over 55 with 'stock options' are sitting for 3 years now with NO BUYERS, they are spending down and using up thier 'retirement packages' to pay INFLATED TAXES and high cost of living and thier kids are in foreclosure, some bankers have 80% foreclosures in thier RE portfolios, due to enrot property price inflating scammers hitting ALL usa states, fraudulently inflating housing prices and property taxes.
No one will leave sound stable diversified job bases with good community services, free transportation for those over 55, good bus schedules for those over 55, affordable housing, affordable retirement housing, family, friends, adequite medical care, solid infra structures and stable hoa and rental prices to move to Florida to be GOUGED by derilict greedy money hungry swamp dwellers from lagoons, corrupt good ole boys, and trump wanna be speculators from NY PA and NJ, all waiting to ROB via fraud taxes, fraud home and condo prices, fraud hoa fees, fraud land rental rates, fraud rental prices , any newcommers and over 55 age retires that visit Florida.
Many poor people go to Nevada, AZ, SC, NC, GA, KY, NM, CA to retire and bust out there also.
The rich with stock options and retirement packages VISIT FL, CA, SC, GA, etc in winter and return home in spring fall and summer. Florida has NO INDUSTRY, NO JOBS, NO DECENT MINIMUM WAGE, NO DIVERSIFIED EMPLOYEMENT BASE and the only industry Florida has besides oranges is trying to rob elderly over 55 and visitors, thanks but no thanks, we will ALL wait for affordable low cost housing and low cost taxes hoa and sound infra structure living before buying or selling and retiring anywhere.
Keep dreaming frank, those bus loads of millions of broke bustout no money homeless dissolutes drowning in cc debt and in bk will be arriving in Florida yesterday, asap and yes, most will be over age 55 and yes, most will retire in Florida and will become permanent residents as they can not afford to pay heating bills in any other state.
Sorry I do not share your unrealistic enthusism that dummies over 55 "with money" will be parachuting into the gator state anytime soon to feed enrot vampires and price gougers.
Maybe 3-4 mexican families will continue to get together and rent or buy one unit from the GLUT of OVERPRICED houses and OVERPRICED OVER HOA condos and lot overpriced, mobile homes in florida. According to the lenders, 4 mexican families COMBINED ON ONE LEASE OR MORTGAGE can qualify and afford to pay for one overpriced 3-4 bedroom 'LUXURY FLORIDA HOME or ONE 2/2 LUXURY FLORIDA condo. that should help you get money from over 55 and under 55, rent to 4 families of 55 and over for each unit, the banks approve such loans and leases every day.
HOLA. ENJOY. KEEP SNORKING FOR RICH RETIREES PENSIONS TO ROB, LIKE PIGS SNORKING FOR TRUFFLES IN THE MUD. GOOD LUCK.
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Old 04-06-2008, 10:38 PM
 
Location: Boca Raton, FL
5,137 posts, read 8,659,414 times
Reputation: 6108
Smile Very interesting....

Quote:
Originally Posted by faithfulFrank View Post
Hello all,
I know this subject has been talked about a lot here.....but many opinions on the Florida real estate market are very negative.

Here is a less popular opinion by a friend of mine whom I respect. I'll try to reflect accurately on how he explained his views to me. Feel free to respectfully comment......

The discussion started out on talking about the "baby boomers". He said the real baby boom didn't start until well after the war was over. Even though '46 is given (by some) as the beginning of the trend, it wasn't until cheap affordable housing was provided for all these ex-servicemen and they settled into the suburbs did the boom truly begin.

You can see this easily by looking at the birth graph:

Number of Births in the US

where the peak births are between '59 and '61, almost doubling the births at the start of '46.

He continued explaining that simple math will show that a person born in 1960 is not going to reach 55 for another eight years. And even those born earlier may not necessarily retire at 55 -- while early retirement was more common a few years ago nowadays many companies are taking the reverse tack. So many of those earlier boomers are just starting to retire.

All in all, looking at the raw numbers, it's absolutely foolish for anyone not to understand we are in for a heck of a lot of people retiring in the next 10 years, more so by a large factor than any other period in American history. If we thought there was a large influx of retirees coming to Florida before it will pale in comparison to the numbers that are yet to come.

Now -- you certainly can argue that not all of these people are heading for Florida (I sure hope not -- the sheer weight of the bodies would cause the state to break off and head out to sea :>). But it's equally silly not to assume the same sorts of numbers will be interested in Florida as in the past. Nothing has happened in any way to cause one to think that boomers won't be interested in warmer climes, in a state with no state income tax, or a state with the best beaches this side of the Mississippi.

But let's stipulate for a moment that Florida is less desirable to the boomer generation than the one before it -- even to the point of being HALF as desirable. We're STILL looking at an increase of double the numbers of people coming here than have come even five years previous. IOW, even if you somehow discount Florida being attractive to the boomers (something I do NOT agree with) we are in for a doubling of the number of homes needed here. And, of course, it is likely to be much much more (up to four or five times as much).

He said "God ain't making any more land" -- so unless the communities we are in are being speculated, say, on the order of 2 to 1 (that is to say, for every home occupied there are at least two that are up for sale) developers are going to need to build a whole lot more homes here and the homes that are here will go up in value. It's just simple numbers, folks, and really impossible to argue with.

The bottom line is that as long as Florida is warm and sunny and has no state tax, it will be a place older Americans will want to retire to.

Another friend added this to the conversation;

He said that the National Association of Homebuilders just released a study called "Profile of the +55 housing market". He said it states that by 2014, 85 million people will be over 55 years old. Many will be buying in homes specifically built for 55+ buyers, and these won’t be all that small - the average home will still have more than 2 bedrooms and over 2,000 square feet for living. Yards and other maintenance-requiring items will be downsized, however.

He said that multiple reports seem to agree that the housing market for this +55 group is much stronger then the average housing market, and less affected by the current real estate slump. Boomers tend to have more equity in their homes as well as other substantial assets. Even if they have to sell their existing home for less than it was worth 2 years ago, they can still be comfortable buying a new home. Few need to take out a mortgage or qualify for financing. Most plan on buying a better quality home than they have now.

He said that in an article he read in a Arizona newspaper backs up the conclusion that the market for active adult communities is in much better shape than the overall housing market. Insiders quoted there agree that retiring baby boomers are ready to move and they have the resources to make that happen. He said there is pent up demand for these homes, with the activities and amenities found in these new communities often more important than the homes themselves. I thought that was interesting, because for me, it seemed correct.

I found it interesting, because it semed to be a more positive outlook then I find posted here most of the time. It seemed to focus more on the differences between the "boomer-age soon to be retirees" and all people in general......something you do not read here much.

Perhaps I should post this under the "retiree" forum, but since it seems to be a popular subject here, I guess I'll post it here. I believe the link I posted here is ok. I respect these guys, and I enjoyed their viewpoints. It seemed a bit different then many things I've read here, so I thought I'd share it, hopefully being a springboard for discussion.

I know that even in the 55+ communities I've been in, the prices have dropped and there are many "For Sale" signs.....but I wonder how many of those are owned by people who own more then one, and bought for speculation. If they could, perhaps it would be better if they held out for another year or two. Buying low and selling high is always better then the other way around.

Frank D.
Frank,
You and I have "spoken" before and I agree with a lot this article says. In my own family, we were born from 1956 to 1962 so that fits. (and there were 4 of us). Most people I know have been careful and we consider ourselves the "poor" ones. But, there's always another day. My husband's and my goal - buy 2 or 3 second or investment homes (rent them out), then visit them for the next 5 years or so, get a feel for the area, and then....who knows. We like the area you are in and your comments, exactly what we are looking for. We would keep our home here in Boca Raton - at least during that time. We would have to continue to work. The 55 of 20 years ago is not the same 55 today, however, I will say that my FIL is 85 and acts 50!! He rides a 10 speed bike to Hollywood Beach (20 miles) and back to his home a few times a week.

Looking back (I am self employed), I wish I had worked for a municipality or the US government and then done the self employment stuff on the side. I would probably be more well off.

Take care!
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Old 04-06-2008, 10:40 PM
 
58 posts, read 160,998 times
Reputation: 31
By all means go to florida if you like sun, just try to avoid the 550 a month mobile park criminal lot assessments that charge 150, 250 to 550 dollars per month for 35 dollars of trash removal and 10 to 20 dollars worth of bug spraying, the rest of your hoa and park fees paid will lines the pockets of some " I hate snowbirds from the north east and west" enrot price gouger who is usually not a florida native, just another criminal hayseed gouger bum from Indiana who got 'a job' as a mobile park manager or condo hoa property or rental manager.
And try to avoid the overtaxed and the overpriced condos and houses, someone lied and told florida property tax assesors that poor retirees and poor people over 55 from the north east and west had buckets of retirement cash to throw away on INFLATED FRAUDULENTLY ASSESSED property taxes, criminal HOA fees and criminal mobile home park fees.
Everybody is dreaming there is a sucker left to rob, duh, the last sucker has been robbed blind and went bk and is on welfare and uses a red tipped cane to walk. Property price gougers and crooked tax assessors and crooked hoa and lot fee gougers and overpriced landlords and rental operators need to give it up and get a new HONEST line of work, I heard publix is hiring baggers. You may need to stand in line with the 200,000 out of work fraud mortgage lenders, fraud re inflate appraisers and fraud inflate real estate lenders who made all those bad inflated loans now in foreclosure and at auction for 10 cents on the dollar.
Good Luck.
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Old 04-06-2008, 11:07 PM
 
432 posts, read 1,718,334 times
Reputation: 135
I'm a boomer heading from NJ to the Florida panhandle. As soon as my home sells. I don't anticipate a huge problem with that, because I have underpriced it and had a lot of showing activity. It is impossible to age in place in northern NJ. Taxes alone will eat you alive.

I was born in Florida, so it is a bit like heading home for me. I know you can enjoy a much better lifestyle.

Many folks from here have assumed that poor old 50 something me is going to buy a condo and "downsize". Well, no. I have a small house here in NJ, and I am finally looking forward to life in a 3 br 2 bth house which will be more spacious. Just me. Why a house? Because I want people to come and visit me. Adult children, grandchildren, friends. I expect company.

I expect to continue working. I am self employed. So the lack of state income tax appeals to me.
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Old 04-07-2008, 02:37 AM
 
Location: The Conterminous United States
22,553 posts, read 47,241,467 times
Reputation: 13382
The demographic that you write about is different than the "Boomers" that are often referred to in the media.

The tail-end "Boomers" had a much different experience. They tend to be tentative in their financial decisions and won't be retiring with huge pensions, if they have a pension at all.

I was born in 1961. My first political memories are of Nixon resigning and lines at the gas pump. No. I won't be retiring to Florida.

"Like the older boomers, Jonesers inherited a good economy. But as they grew, that economy soured, spawning gas lines and a recession, and dashing hopes."

Who is Generation Jones?
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Old 04-07-2008, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Central Fl
2,903 posts, read 10,912,747 times
Reputation: 2859
Well, I asked for opinions and I certainly got them.....

I always enjoy a healthy discussion.

Retiredcoach, I have always enjoyed your well presented posts. I do understand what you are saying. I guess only time will tell.

As I've stated before, I started this thread to just present a less common view, one shared by a knowledgeable friend of mine who currently lives down there. I respect his opinion. I did not say I agreed with it 100%, but I thought it was interesting, and would provoke some interesting responses.

jay2007, let's try to stick to the original subject, which was simply will the influx of the "baby boomers" have a positive effect on the current real estate market in the coming years.

I know that Florida is a big state, and I have not seen 90% of it. I do know that the 10% of it I have seen, mostly around the area in which I bought, seems A LOT healthier then the picture you have painted.

It is easy to misread posts, because it is the written and not spoken word, so one cannot hear the tone of voice, etc. My impression is that you seem to be ranting, and you come across as bitter, unhappy, and a bit rude and trollish. Instead of sticking to the topic, you seem to have successfully mentioned almost every bad situation Florida may have. I know that Florida has it's share of problems, and that it is not perfect, but I'll just leave it with saying that I have not found Florida to be the Florida you have described, thank God.

Frank D.
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Old 04-07-2008, 10:09 AM
 
Location: Florida
479 posts, read 1,307,221 times
Reputation: 2294
People will start returning to Florida only when some of our crises are managed better. Right now the State is cutting billions from the budget and it's affecting local governments tremendously. State budget is being slashed 10% from last May, from $72 billion to $65 billion. Teachers & other workers in education will be laid off; medical and health care costs cut; enviromental endeavors cut (Everglades); very likely major cuts going to the judicial system (State's attorneys, public defenders); Etc., Etc., etc. It's all over the Orlando Sentinel. On top of that, County and City governments were already promising cuts due to the property tax amendment approved on Jan. 29th, even though it's not really going to cut our taxes and many local gov'ts are initiating or increasing "fees" to make up for the superficial tax cut.

Florida's foreclosures are #1 in the nation now, one in every 382 households in Florida. Those that are selling have been cut 20% or more since 2006. So if anyone wants to buy, now might be a good time to look, but property taxes and insurance rates are still high for new buyers. Even some HOA's are about to go bankrupt because there are fewer homeowners left to pay the fees.

Orlando is doing well in the medical field as far as new jobs and industry is concerned - bio-medical research, new VA hospital planned, Medical School to open on the UCF campus (planned for 2009). Other than this, it's tourism, tourism, tourism and low paying service jobs. And we had a decline in tourists beginning in 2007.

Retirees with sufficient income may still consider Florida, but a huge number of younger workers are leaving so they have jobs. Last I read, it seems many of these are moving to the Atlanta and Dallas areas where there are jobs and cost of living is less. There have also been retirees and even Florida natives who've left the state because their income no longer was enough to pay the cost of living here.
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Old 04-07-2008, 10:43 AM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 23,754,287 times
Reputation: 4900
I see the Federal Reserve inflating away all the pensions of the "retired". The easiest way to eliminate debt is to inflate the money supply so high that it simply evaporates. So the "baby boomers" will not have any useable income when they are pushed out of the workforce. The inflation will continue to increase energy costs, and drive employers out of Florida. The property tax system is putting downward pressure on property prices, and cash-strapped baby boomers cannot afford to spend 6,000.00 a year leasing their 325,000.00 tract home from the State. They will be better off in a state with an income tax and low property taxes. I know a lot of people whose parents have decided to retire in Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas instead of Florida. Texas has a lot of them but with their flawed tax system, rising property values will drive them out as well. The northeasterners are going to get a rude awakening when the economy eliminates buyers for most "middle class" homes. Do not count on any more idiots driving up Florida real estate any time soon.
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Old 04-07-2008, 11:22 AM
 
3,568 posts, read 3,270,915 times
Reputation: 1364
Quote:
Originally Posted by faithfulFrank View Post
Hello all,
I know this subject has been talked about a lot here.....but many opinions on the Florida real estate market are very negative.

Here is a less popular opinion by a friend of mine whom I respect. I'll try to reflect accurately on how he explained his views to me. Feel free to respectfully comment......

The discussion started out on talking about the "baby boomers". He said the real baby boom didn't start until well after the war was over. Even though '46 is given (by some) as the beginning of the trend, it wasn't until cheap affordable housing was provided for all these ex-servicemen and they settled into the suburbs did the boom truly begin.

You can see this easily by looking at the birth graph:

Number of Births in the US

where the peak births are between '59 and '61, almost doubling the births at the start of '46.

He continued explaining that simple math will show that a person born in 1960 is not going to reach 55 for another eight years. And even those born earlier may not necessarily retire at 55 -- while early retirement was more common a few years ago nowadays many companies are taking the reverse tack. So many of those earlier boomers are just starting to retire.

All in all, looking at the raw numbers, it's absolutely foolish for anyone not to understand we are in for a heck of a lot of people retiring in the next 10 years, more so by a large factor than any other period in American history. If we thought there was a large influx of retirees coming to Florida before it will pale in comparison to the numbers that are yet to come.

Now -- you certainly can argue that not all of these people are heading for Florida (I sure hope not -- the sheer weight of the bodies would cause the state to break off and head out to sea :>). But it's equally silly not to assume the same sorts of numbers will be interested in Florida as in the past. Nothing has happened in any way to cause one to think that boomers won't be interested in warmer climes, in a state with no state income tax, or a state with the best beaches this side of the Mississippi.

But let's stipulate for a moment that Florida is less desirable to the boomer generation than the one before it -- even to the point of being HALF as desirable. We're STILL looking at an increase of double the numbers of people coming here than have come even five years previous. IOW, even if you somehow discount Florida being attractive to the boomers (something I do NOT agree with) we are in for a doubling of the number of homes needed here. And, of course, it is likely to be much much more (up to four or five times as much).

He said "God ain't making any more land" -- so unless the communities we are in are being speculated, say, on the order of 2 to 1 (that is to say, for every home occupied there are at least two that are up for sale) developers are going to need to build a whole lot more homes here and the homes that are here will go up in value. It's just simple numbers, folks, and really impossible to argue with.

The bottom line is that as long as Florida is warm and sunny and has no state tax, it will be a place older Americans will want to retire to.

Another friend added this to the conversation;

He said that the National Association of Homebuilders just released a study called "Profile of the +55 housing market". He said it states that by 2014, 85 million people will be over 55 years old. Many will be buying in homes specifically built for 55+ buyers, and these won’t be all that small - the average home will still have more than 2 bedrooms and over 2,000 square feet for living. Yards and other maintenance-requiring items will be downsized, however.

He said that multiple reports seem to agree that the housing market for this +55 group is much stronger then the average housing market, and less affected by the current real estate slump. Boomers tend to have more equity in their homes as well as other substantial assets. Even if they have to sell their existing home for less than it was worth 2 years ago, they can still be comfortable buying a new home. Few need to take out a mortgage or qualify for financing. Most plan on buying a better quality home than they have now.

He said that in an article he read in a Arizona newspaper backs up the conclusion that the market for active adult communities is in much better shape than the overall housing market. Insiders quoted there agree that retiring baby boomers are ready to move and they have the resources to make that happen. He said there is pent up demand for these homes, with the activities and amenities found in these new communities often more important than the homes themselves. I thought that was interesting, because for me, it seemed correct.

I found it interesting, because it semed to be a more positive outlook then I find posted here most of the time. It seemed to focus more on the differences between the "boomer-age soon to be retirees" and all people in general......something you do not read here much.

Perhaps I should post this under the "retiree" forum, but since it seems to be a popular subject here, I guess I'll post it here. I believe the link I posted here is ok. I respect these guys, and I enjoyed their viewpoints. It seemed a bit different then many things I've read here, so I thought I'd share it, hopefully being a springboard for discussion.

I know that even in the 55+ communities I've been in, the prices have dropped and there are many "For Sale" signs.....but I wonder how many of those are owned by people who own more then one, and bought for speculation. If they could, perhaps it would be better if they held out for another year or two. Buying low and selling high is always better then the other way around.

Frank D.
Because of its size the baby boomer generation has had an inordinate effect on schools, housing, the job market, etc. And it is tempting to imagine that they will have the same effect in retirement. And to a large extent they will. But it is difficult to extrapolate from that fact how they will affect Florida. First of all where are the boomers? There has been a huge migration of people from the northeast and the rust belt to the south, west and southwest. Many of those people already live in a fairly warm climate and the attraction of the Florida climate is not as strong as it is for people in the northest and upper midwest. Moreover, as someone has already pointed out, there are now many states competing with Florida for the retirees. That wasn't the case for the parents of the boomers. And, frankly, the economics of the boomers is not as favorable as it was for their parents who thought nothing of selling a home and buying a moblie home in Florida. Recent hurricanes have made that option less and less attractive. Not to mention that Florida has seen a huge cost of living jump in recent years that puts it out of reach to many.

Like your friends, I used to think that the retirement of the boomers would have a huge impact on Florida. Now I'm not so sure.
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