[faithfulFrank]

Hello all,
I know this subject has been talked about a lot here.....but many opinions on the Florida real estate market are very negative.

Here is a less popular opinion by a friend of mine whom I respect. I'll try to reflect accurately on how he explained his views to me. Feel free to respectfully comment......

The discussion started out on talking about the "baby boomers". He said the real baby boom didn't start until well after the war was over. Even though '46 is given (by some) as the beginning of the trend, it wasn't until cheap affordable housing was provided for all these ex-servicemen and they settled into the suburbs did the boom truly begin.

You can see this easily by looking at the birth graph:

Number of Births in the US

where the peak births are between '59 and '61, almost doubling the births at the start of '46.

He continued explaining that simple math will show that a person born in 1960 is not going to reach 55 for another eight years. And even those born earlier may not necessarily retire at 55 -- while early retirement was more common a few years ago nowadays many companies are taking the reverse tack. So many of those earlier boomers are just starting to retire.

All in all, looking at the raw numbers, it's absolutely foolish for anyone not to understand we are in for a heck of a lot of people retiring in the next 10 years, more so by a large factor than any other period in American history. If we thought there was a large influx of retirees coming to Florida before it will pale in comparison to the numbers that are yet to come.

Now -- you certainly can argue that not all of these people are heading for Florida (I sure hope not -- the sheer weight of the bodies would cause the state to break off and head out to sea :>). But it's equally silly not to assume the same sorts of numbers will be interested in Florida as in the past. Nothing has happened in any way to cause one to think that boomers won't be interested in warmer climes, in a state with no state income tax, or a state with the best beaches this side of the Mississippi.

But let's stipulate for a moment that Florida is less desirable to the boomer generation than the one before it -- even to the point of being HALF as desirable. We're STILL looking at an increase of double the numbers of people coming here than have come even five years previous. IOW, even if you somehow discount Florida being attractive to the boomers (something I do NOT agree with) we are in for a doubling of the number of homes needed here. And, of course, it is likely to be much much more (up to four or five times as much).

He said "God ain't making any more land" -- so unless the communities we are in are being speculated, say, on the order of 2 to 1 (that is to say, for every home occupied there are at least two that are up for sale) developers are going to need to build a whole lot more homes here and the homes that are here will go up in value. It's just simple numbers, folks, and really impossible to argue with.

The bottom line is that as long as Florida is warm and sunny and has no state tax, it will be a place older Americans will want to retire to.

Another friend added this to the conversation;

He said that the National Association of Homebuilders just released a study called "Profile of the +55 housing market". He said it states that by 2014, 85 million people will be over 55 years old. Many will be buying in homes specifically built for 55+ buyers, and these won’t be all that small - the average home will still have more than 2 bedrooms and over 2,000 square feet for living. Yards and other maintenance-requiring items will be downsized, however.

He said that multiple reports seem to agree that the housing market for this +55 group is much stronger then the average housing market, and less affected by the current real estate slump. Boomers tend to have more equity in their homes as well as other substantial assets. Even if they have to sell their existing home for less than it was worth 2 years ago, they can still be comfortable buying a new home. Few need to take out a mortgage or qualify for financing. Most plan on buying a better quality home than they have now.

He said that in an article he read in a Arizona newspaper backs up the conclusion that the market for active adult communities is in much better shape than the overall housing market. Insiders quoted there agree that retiring baby boomers are ready to move and they have the resources to make that happen. He said there is pent up demand for these homes, with the activities and amenities found in these new communities often more important than the homes themselves. I thought that was interesting, because for me, it seemed correct.

I found it interesting, because it semed to be a more positive outlook then I find posted here most of the time. It seemed to focus more on the differences between the "boomer-age soon to be retirees" and all people in general......something you do not read here much.

Perhaps I should post this under the "retiree" forum, but since it seems to be a popular subject here, I guess I'll post it here. I believe the link I posted here is ok. I respect these guys, and I enjoyed their viewpoints. It seemed a bit different then many things I've read here, so I thought I'd share it, hopefully being a springboard for discussion.

I know that even in the 55+ communities I've been in, the prices have dropped and there are many "For Sale" signs.....but I wonder how many of those are owned by people who own more then one, and bought for speculation. If they could, perhaps it would be better if they held out for another year or two. Buying low and selling high is always better then the other way around.

Frank D.

[121804]

Sounds like you are wondering if every retiree moves to FL if there will be enough housing?

[NYLATINQT]

I totally agree with what your friend has said. What i didn't know was that the height of the boom started between '59-'61. I believe that although Florida is going thru a real estate correction now, and prices will likely stay flat for a couple of years, once the baby boomers start looking for retirement homes, many will flock to Florida. Many have good retirement packages, stock options, etc... that generation did pretty well overall compared to the generation X. So personally, i think if someone buys when the market tanks in FL over the next few years, they can expect there will be another boom 10 yrs down the road. I'm no psychic but let's see what happens.

[faithfulFrank]

Originally Posted by 121804

Sounds like you are wondering if every retiree moves to FL if there will be enough housing?

Not really.....what I stated above is that my friend had the opinion that even if just 1/2 the amount of people did compared to the last wave, there will be the need for additional housing.....I guess only time will tell.

I do know this.
1) Florida will ( In my opinion ) always have warmer and sunnier weather then NY
2) Senior citizens will never flock to NY so they can enjoy shoveling

I'm set whatever happens. I actually hope everyone does not flock to Florida...I need someone to still buy my home in NY in 3 years.

Frank D.

[121804]

Originally Posted by faithfulFrank

Not really.....what I stated above is that my friend had the opinion that even if just 1/2 the amount of people did compared to the last wave, there will be the need for additional housing.....I guess only time will tell.

I do know this.
1) Florida will ( In my opinion ) always have warmer and sunnier weather then NY
2) Senior citizens will never flock to NY so they can enjoy shoveling

I'm set whatever happens. I actually hope everyone does not flock to Florida...I need someone to still buy my home in NY in 3 years.

Frank D.

No offense, Frank, but isn't #1 sorta obvious based on geography alone?

And, TX & the Carolinas are giving FL a run for their money as it is many times it is the same amount of $$ to live there & not such a drastic climate change. Also, many are finding that this is where their children are moving to for those are where many of the jobs have been created the past several years. Think Austin, TX. Most I know want to be near their grandchildren rather than away.

My dad is 72 & said this was his last year shoveling (he loves it) & will hire kids to shovel on as needed basis, but they don't live in a region that receives the mammoth amounts of snow that you do. He spent his childhood through teenage years in Miami Beach & refuses to step foot back into FL.

Hey, retire where it makes you happy For my husband & I, that would be Jackson Hole, WY.

[faithfulFrank]

Originally Posted by 121804

No offense, Frank, but isn't #1 sorta obvious based on geography alone?

And, TX & the Carolinas are giving FL a run for their money as it is many times it is the same amount of $$ to live there & not such a drastic climate change. Also, many are finding that this is where their children are moving to for those are where many of the jobs have been created the past several years. Think Austin, TX. Most I know want to be near their grandchildren rather than away.

My dad is 72 & said this was his last year shoveling (he loves it) & will hire kids to shovel on as needed basis, but they don't live in a region that receives the mammoth amounts of snow that you do. He spent his childhood through teenage years in Miami Beach & refuses to step foot back into FL.

Hey, retire where it makes you happy For my husband & I, that would be Jackson Hole, WY.

Yes, it is a bit obvious...I was being a bit playful there...
You are correct.....there are many great places in this country that has much of what a retiree is looking for.
Think for a moment what a wonderful country we have....so diverse in climate, culture, etc....few countries can match our diversity....on top of that, our freedom is amazing. We can go and live anywhere in the country without asking anyone permission, no armed border crossings, no Berlin walls, no military demanding to see papers. We are indeed blessed.

Who knows? I'm not sure where my kids will settle for good. I may in the years ahead, want to move closer to them.....or they can visit us...I don't know. It is good to have a plan, even though I think sometimes we plan, God laughs.

Frank D.

[MrTudo]

Fla will bounce back just fine. Hopefully many of the "investors" will lose enough to stay out of here until they're ready to move here.

Lots of hospitals, flat terrain in which to navigate, everything close enough.

What will hurt some retirees is the tax issue.

[compelled to reply]

The problem is that there is some form of a tax issue everywhere. If it's the property taxes here, it's the income tax somewhere else. If it's the income tax issue there, it's the high sales tax elsewhere. They are always going to rob you one way or another. As a whole we aren't even that bad. I.E Texas has no income tax but the property tax situation is even worse. Tennessee also has no income tax but they have a 7% sales tax and 5.5% on food items.

[jay2007]

Frank, no boomers will retire to florida if no one buys thier existing homes, FIGURE THAT, and if boomers sell at a loss they will have LESS money to pay for a florida place. Any read of the obits in florida you will see it is Gods waiting room with Florida homeowners are passing on in droves to the pearly white condo in the sky that has NO FRAUDULENTLY INFLATED TAXES, NO JACKED HOA FEES, NO CRIMINALLY INFLATED LAND RENTAL FEES AND NO ENROT JACKED UTILITIES.
The kids who inherit these homes CAN NOT afford to pay 2 SETS OF TAXES, 2 SETS OF INS. 2 SETS OF LAND RENTALS, 2 SETS OF HOA FEES, so they are dumping FL. places like hotcakes and hot potatoes at a low price. No one wants to be a landlord for a property more then 7 miles away, it is not economically feasable.
Also 1/3rd to 1/2 of all retiring boomers will retire below the poverty level on 1000 a month, the wealthier boomers have all thier money tied up in thier depreciating homes that no one will buy until prices and taxes drop considerably.
Old boomers are stubborn, they like routine and will not be selling at a loss to pay GOUGER prices in florida, arkansas, tenn, ga, hawaii or anywhere else. Most retired boomers living on 1000 a month retirement income can not afford to pay anything but very very low and affordable housing costs and many boomers have very HIGH MEDICAL AND HEALTH INS COSTS.
The enrot boyz over shot thier mark when hopeing for a glut of rich retired boomers to fleece. 12,000 a year is no money to fleece, it is below poverty level living, haven't you heard, seniors must choose between food and medicine, an inflated gouger enrot priced joint in buggy florida with 120 degree heat in August and no infrastructure caps appeals to NO SENIORS except to the HOMELESS BUMS WITH NO MONEY that flood florida by greyhound bus every year and rob floridians and sleep in the forests beach areas parks streets and in SUVs and vans down there, a TRANSIENT hobo population does not buy anything or pay for anything, they just lower the property values further and create crime.
So to answer your question, yes florida will get some retirees who can sell thier homes at reasonable price and buy AFFORDABLE florida housing. And, no, florida nor CA, nor TX, nor GA, nor SC, nor NC, nor AK, nor any sunny state will not sell anything to anyone at inflated enrot gouger prices.
yes there are retirees but as many are passing away as are retiring. read some health statistics, there are 49 million disabled children over age 5 now in USA, out of 78 million kids, 49 million usa kids over 5 are disabled, disabled children live below poverty levels in any state.
Moms and dads grandmoms and grandpops now pay to help the 60 million single parent mom headed households in usa, as these are thier daughters and grandkids living below the poverty levels. So there is no rich retirees heading for Florida, just more NO MONEY HOMELESS BUMS that can't afford to pay heating costs north of GA, TX and AL.
Have fun selling overpriced housing to that group, they NEED more help then anyone and have NO MONEY, NO CREDIT, NOTHING to offer or pay anyone.

[jay2007]

BTW- Enrot developers thought Sears tower high rise would bring in money, Sears tower has been 60% vacant for over 15 years. Biz men moved to AFFORDABLE LOW COST office locations.
Just like retiring boomers will stay put or move to and live in AFFORDABLE retirement low cost housing..... and bypass all the inflated white elephant overpriced lots and lot rentals and overtaxed overpriced inflated homes and overpriced inflated fraud hoa fees and inflated overtaxed over assessed condo's in florida. There is a glut of housing all over usa, esp florida, and only price corrections in usa as a whole will facilitate lateral across the board sales and new purchases.
Condos in florida sold for 18,000 cost and 39,000 high end, 15 years ago, all the units have done is depreciate over the years, pipes rust, electric wires get bugs running on the electric lines, drywall rots, mold and mildew grows behind walls, roofs go bad, etc etc, 3-4 bedroom houses in florida sold for 69,000, 10,000 over cost, 15 years ago, all those houses have aged and depreciated in 15 years of use, same for housing all across USA.