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Okay- I'll reply. While sea level rise is something we should all think about, you also have to think of how you want to live your life in the coming years.
I surf and my requirement is that I live within easy biking distance (5 miles) of a decent break. I appreciate all the benefits of Cocoa Beach (as compared to Titusville, Cocoa, or even Meritt Island), as I lived near the CCB Pier for a few years. My options are to live near the coast in New England (Cold, surfer-unfriendly, and ?? Jobs), California (Expensive), or Florida (Low Elevation). I prefer Florida and CCB for it's laid-back atmosphere and relative affordability. I would not move there if I had to live inland.
However, the IPCC estimates that sea levels will rise by 1/2' to 3 feet by 2100, and those could be conservative estimates. CCB lists it's elevation as 0ft, PAFB is at 12ft, and Satellite Beach is at 8ft. Since the majority of neighborhoods on the river-side of the A1A (where I can afford) are on dredged sand and mud probably not more than 5-10 feet above the mean high tide line, I'm trying to determine if it's an obviously bad idea to purchase property there or not.
Hurricanes are always a risk, of course, but usually the property is still above water once the storm is over. However, global sea level rises are forecast to eventually submerge the property. In the timeframe of 50-100 years, the rises will probably be managable, on the order of a few feet, managable through dykes and breakwaters. If I can purchase a house, live in it for 40-some years, then pass it on for my children to sell (because they'll probably want to live somewhere else), I consider that a good investment. However, if the property is going to be rendered worthless in 40 years because the barrier islands are doomed, I hesitate to dump the majority of my resources into it.
So far, apart from what BlueWillowPlate posted, the responses seem to indicate that nobody is going to worry about this as a problem until it becomes a more immediate issue. If CCB, Satellite Beach, Cape Canaveral cities do not have any sort of long-range plan for dealing with this sort of thing, that makes me think twice about moving there and purchasing a house. Perhaps a permanent rental situation is a better idea, and I should purchase property elsewhere.
So, the prevailing attitude seems to be to not worry about sea-level changes because they are tied to political environmental policies that Floridians don't like. Regardless of whether global warming is a myth or not, sea levels do change over time. Most development on the barrier islands is "brand new" in terms of even short-term erosive and environmental change--the majority of houses having been built on mud dredged up from the riverbottom in the 1950's during the space race.
While I was living in CCB, the city did take the active step to "renourish" the beach by dredging and dumping offshore sand and widening the beach by tens of yards. This was partially to restore the broad sandy beach that is the area's tourist attraction. While providing temporary protection, these repeated "renourishments" are not anywhere near the scope of the project that might be required to "permanently" (for 100-300 years) fix the populated core of the barrier islands in place and armor it against reasonable sea-level rises of a few inches to a few feet.
The "solutions" I see being implemented seem to consist of useless regulations from the "greens": Emission controls, which are desirable, but will have zero effect on short-term (100's of years) sea-level rises, even if the entire US were to crush their automobiles and switch to bicycles tomorrow. If the greens are right about CO2 and climate change, then we are locked into a cycle of climate change that will take hundreds of years to reverse.
And head-in-the-sand stubbornness from the conservatives, in reaction to being told they need to give up some luxuries by the greens.
No one seems to have a serious plan to deal with the reality of the situation; that the barrier islands are transient natural phenonoma. They are threatened by both storms and short-term sea-level change. They cannot be protected via a dyke system like Holland's sub-sea-level land, and will require a long term solution that includes current efforts like beach renourishment and dune protection, as well as more drastic measures, like major elevation increases in empty properties, coastal armor for those threatened by rising surf as used in Japan and Taiwan, and possibly raising and stilting entire neighborhoods as is done in low-lying areas and coastal marshes in the United States.
Has anyone been able to put their personal political opinions aside to just think about the future, or are snide comments about fairy tales the best response, to a serious problem, that Floridians' can manage?
So, the prevailing attitude seems to be to not worry about sea-level changes because they are tied to political environmental policies that Floridians don't like. Regardless of whether global warming is a myth or not, sea levels do change over time. Most development on the barrier islands is "brand new" in terms of even short-term erosive and environmental change--the majority of houses having been built on mud dredged up from the riverbottom in the 1950's during the space race.
While I was living in CCB, the city did take the active step to "renourish" the beach by dredging and dumping offshore sand and widening the beach by tens of yards. This was partially to restore the broad sandy beach that is the area's tourist attraction. While providing temporary protection, these repeated "renourishments" are not anywhere near the scope of the project that might be required to "permanently" (for 100-300 years) fix the populated core of the barrier islands in place and armor it against reasonable sea-level rises of a few inches to a few feet.
The "solutions" I see being implemented seem to consist of useless regulations from the "greens": Emission controls, which are desirable, but will have zero effect on short-term (100's of years) sea-level rises, even if the entire US were to crush their automobiles and switch to bicycles tomorrow. If the greens are right about CO2 and climate change, then we are locked into a cycle of climate change that will take hundreds of years to reverse.
And head-in-the-sand stubbornness from the conservatives, in reaction to being told they need to give up some luxuries by the greens.
No one seems to have a serious plan to deal with the reality of the situation; that the barrier islands are transient natural phenonoma. They are threatened by both storms and short-term sea-level change. They cannot be protected via a dyke system like Holland's sub-sea-level land, and will require a long term solution that includes current efforts like beach renourishment and dune protection, as well as more drastic measures, like major elevation increases in empty properties, coastal armor for those threatened by rising surf as used in Japan and Taiwan, and possibly raising and stilting entire neighborhoods as is done in low-lying areas and coastal marshes in the United States.
Has anyone been able to put their personal political opinions aside to just think about the future, or are snide comments about fairy tales the best response, to a serious problem, that Floridians' can manage?
There is some beach renourishment and dune protection that I have seen in the North part of Palm Beach County and points North, Martin....
Some stilts not many. (actually Tallrick was ahead of many, by many years)
But, to give you a "serious" answer that is not snide, let's see.
This is Fl. How about fresh water as a bigger issue? (search Fl forum, many posted as the biggest problem in Fl in the coming years. And, the issues are tied i.e. salt water intrusion.)
No, that does not answer your question. So, no, there is no long term comprehensive plan that I know of.
The uber rich in Jupiter Island certainly do not seem to care.
The populace is uninformed.
Something 30-50 years out is just not planned for here.
Look at the IRAQ invasion. It's not snide, cynical, yes.
If you post links, organizations ... etc I'll look at them.
Funny how this morning I was at one of the most beautiful, secluded, beaches in all Fl: Blowing Rocks Preserve.
All of three people in a 4 mile stretch of beach.
Information posts at the entrance said dredging, and sea walls make the situation worse.
_
Dredging, armor, seawalls will harm the barrier island ecosystem, no doubt. The most natural thing would be to let the islands migrate, enlarge, or sink. Of course, that means the houses will eventually fall into the sea or the river (and rising sea levels mean you might want to think twice about a 30-odd year investment.
I am not passing judgement on which is best, I just really want to know what people plan to do. If the answer is "nobody's thought about it." That's fine, but I did hope to lead into the next question of: what do you think we should think/do about it and will it be possible to save a piece of property or a home on the barrier islands if, 50 years from now, sea levels are 2 feet higher.
However, if there are more pressing concerns, then I'll just keep talking to myself.
Nooooo, there are no more pressing concerns. And, yes, I have thought about it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sponger42
Thanks jbravo.
Dredging, armor, seawalls will harm the barrier island ecosystem, no doubt. The most natural thing would be to let the islands migrate, enlarge, or sink. Of course, that means the houses will eventually fall into the sea or the river (and rising sea levels mean you might want to think twice about a 30-odd year investment.
I am not passing judgement on which is best, I just really want to know what people plan to do. If the answer is "nobody's thought about it." That's fine, but I did hope to lead into the next question of: what do you think we should think/do about it and will it be possible to save a piece of property or a home on the barrier islands if, 50 years from now, sea levels are 2 feet higher.
However, if there are more pressing concerns, then I'll just keep talking to myself.
This was my estimate also!
I trust the IPCC estimates IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
For those that are smarter than me: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-re...r4_syr_spm.pdf
I've known those from the far left that tell me Florida will all but disappear in 50 years and I've known those on the right that poh poh it.
But 2' in 50 years makes sense (although with Global dimming NOVA | Dimming the Sun | PBS who knows for sure, if they clean up the exhausts it could be more than 2')
Anyways, I did think about it and came to the conclusion that you could buy on the beach and unload the property in 10-15 years (not altruistic no humanity involved)
What to do?
Stilts.
This is no sarcasm. Those that have grown up and lived close to Biscayne Bay in Miami have seen houses in the middle of the Ocean for years.
Really, this is the only solution that I see.
I may or may not be around in 50 years but a 2' rise would mean that the barrier Islands would be the LEAST of our problems.
_
Dredging, armor, seawalls will harm the barrier island ecosystem, no doubt. The most natural thing would be to let the islands migrate, enlarge, or sink. Of course, that means the houses will eventually fall into the sea or the river (and rising sea levels mean you might want to think twice about a 30-odd year investment.
I am not passing judgement on which is best, I just really want to know what people plan to do. If the answer is "nobody's thought about it." That's fine, but I did hope to lead into the next question of: what do you think we should think/do about it and will it be possible to save a piece of property or a home on the barrier islands if, 50 years from now, sea levels are 2 feet higher.
However, if there are more pressing concerns, then I'll just keep talking to myself.
The highest estimates I have seen have been about 12 inches over the next 100 years.
Conservative estimates check in somewhere around 1-2 inches.
Taking those 2 numbers and going in the middle somewhere you could be looking at 6 inch rise. That is unless it doesn't rise.
I personally don't think it is going to be an issue.
That being said, I don't expect the government to be paying (and in reality taxpayers paying) to raise up or move all the beachfront homes.
Rising water levels is just speculation. If it happens so be it. It's not like it is going to happen ovenight. Most of us will be dead in 50 years anyway and those that are not have plenty of time to move further inland.
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Nooooo, there are no more pressing concerns. And, yes, I have thought about it.
