[Poseidon3290]

Just an offhand FYI , folks -

FLoriDUH has a pop of approx 22 million.

At a daily immunization rate of 35.7k, it will take approx 616 days to get to everyone.

Approx 20 months.

Even if we double the daily rate to 70k, it will take almost a year to get everyone inoculated.

But wait a minute, , the 35k people that they inoculated yesterday have to COME BACK for a 2nd dose in 30 days so in all actuality, they have to QUADRUPLE the rate to 140k a day to NET 70k COMPLETED 'double tap' immunizations.

Good job governor, who could have seen the need to plan ahead for this??

[logybogy]

There are some issues with your numbers. First of all the vaccine is not approved for those under 16, so that's millions of people who aren't allowed to get it anytime soon because there have been no FDA trials on safety and the under 16 population has such low death rates from COVID.

Also 50% of people are very skeptical of the vaccine, or just don't want it. Some are reluctant because the vaccine technology is new and never tried before. Others are conspiracy theorists or think COVID is a hoax or already had COVID and don't want the vaccine. Also because of allergic reactions and anaphylaxis risk, lots of people with allergies are reluctant.

So the ”pool” of people who want to get the vaccine or can get the vaccine is a lot less than you think. Probably under 10 Million. I anticipate as supply comes online that anyone who wants the get the vaccine will be able to with little trouble by April or May at Publix, CVS, or Walgreens as they go through the tranches with health care workers, seniors, high-risk, etc. They are finding 30-40% in many places of nurses and other health care workers are refusing the vaccine. That means this supply will build up and they will soon release it to anyone that wants it rather than waste it.

[Poseidon3290]

Originally Posted by logybogy

There are some issues with your numbers. First of all the vaccine is not approved for those under 16, so that's millions of people who aren't allowed to get it anytime soon because there have been no FDA trials on safety and the under 16 population has such low death rates from COVID.

Also 50% of people are very skeptical of the vaccine, or just don't want it. Some are reluctant because the vaccine technology is new and never tried before. Others are conspiracy theorists or think COVID is a hoax or already had COVID and don't want the vaccine. Also because of allergic reactions and anaphylaxis risk, lots of people with allergies are reluctant.

So the ”pool” of people who want to get the vaccine or can get the vaccine is a lot less than you think. Probably under 10 Million. I anticipate as supply comes online that anyone who wants the get the vaccine will be able to with little trouble by April or May at Publix, CVS, or Walgreens as they go through the tranches with health care workers, seniors, high-risk, etc. They are finding 30-40% in many places of nurses and other health care workers are refusing the vaccine. That means this supply will build up and they will soon release it to anyone that wants it rather than waste it.

Don't forget that snowbirds and visitors are flocking here right now and are able to get the vaccine here!

Teachers are being told June at the earliest.

[LKJ1988]

I'm not getting one anyways ray.

[ConnecticutSir]

At least we don't have such strict requirements to get the vaccine like other states, that thousands of doses are expiring before they can be used. As someone said on another forum, "we need to get vaccines in arms, any arms." The more people that get it, the closer we get to herd immunity.

[Racer46]

Originally Posted by Poseidon3290

Just an offhand FYI , folks -

FLoriDUH has a pop of approx 22 million.

At a daily immunization rate of 35.7k, it will take approx 616 days to get to everyone.

Approx 20 months.

Even if we double the daily rate to 70k, it will take almost a year to get everyone inoculated.

But wait a minute, , the 35k people that they inoculated yesterday have to COME BACK for a 2nd dose in 30 days so in all actuality, they have to QUADRUPLE the rate to 140k a day to NET 70k COMPLETED 'double tap' immunizations.

Good job governor, who could have seen the need to plan ahead for this??

Plus my sister in law in TN just advised that they already have 4 people in their area, that even after vaccination, have come down with the Virus. How this will work out over time is going to be hard to know. In testing they had a low rate, but over time that can change as even those who had it may not have extended immunity and some will still have minimal to no immunity. Then you have to get 2 shots so what happens inbetween?



Now this may be the answer, but that still is worrisome.


"It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination. That means it’s possible a person could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 just before or just after vaccination and get sick. This is because the vaccine has not had enough time to provide protection."


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...its/facts.html

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by logybogy

Also 50% of people are very skeptical of the vaccine, or just don't want it.

...so much for doctors and nurses first

about 40-50%

Some healthcare workers refuse to take COVID-19 vaccine, even with priority access

They are frontline workers with top-priority access to the COVID-19 vaccine, but they are refusing to take it.

https://www.latimes.com/california/s...vaccine-access

================

Up to 60% of US health workers are refusing to get COVID-19 vaccines over fears of side effects

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/a...-vaccines.html

[roodd279]

Interesting exercise in psychology here.
If you truly feel the virus is spreading like wildfire - then you must ALSO feel the vaccine is being injected at breakneck pace. The two (200K per day) are about the same rate.
Big difference between the two though: The vaccine will pick up speed - more distributors, better management, more manufacturers - and - critically - it's not Just about the USA. It's happening all over.
Without gory numbers here - I expect to see things tilt towards the good in dramatic fashion in 10 weeks or less - even at this pace. But I expect the pace to pick up.


Meantime - if you are truly not getting the vaccine - then please, please - run out and get infected. You'll still count towards the herd. : D


.

[logybogy]

Yeah, this is kind of dangerous thinking if people get the vaccine and the next day stop social distancing and wearing masks.

The Pfizer and Moderna vaccines only begin to give immunity 10-12 days after the first injection. Then at the 21 or 28 days they are 50-70% effective. This is when the 2nd booster is given and then another 10-12 days later is where you get the full immune response and 95% effectiveness. So the process to full immunity from Day 1 of the first shot to 12 days after the second is up to 6 weeks. Anytime within that 6 week period you are at some risk.

It's also unclear if you can still transmit the virus when infected because the vaccine will not stop infection it will just stop symptoms so there is fear half the population will be vaccinated and potential asymptomatic spreaders to the half that refuses to be vaccinated.

Originally Posted by Racer46

Plus my sister in law in TN just advised that they already have 4 people in their area, that even after vaccination, have come down with the Virus. How this will work out over time is going to be hard to know. In testing they had a low rate, but over time that can change as even those who had it may not have extended immunity and some will still have minimal to no immunity. Then you have to get 2 shots so what happens inbetween?



Now this may be the answer, but that still is worrisome.


"It typically takes a few weeks for the body to build immunity after vaccination. That means it’s possible a person could be infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 just before or just after vaccination and get sick. This is because the vaccine has not had enough time to provide protection."


https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...its/facts.html

[boy3365]

I truly think we should wait a week or two before making harsh judgments about distribution. I feel like the holiday slowdown is playing a role in this.