[Arcenal813]

Originally Posted by Travelassie

Yeah, IMO it didn't look to be Miami's storm once those tracks started taking it west, predicting a northwest, then northern and hook back to the east paths. I'm in Punta Gorda, and am starting to guardedly breathe a sigh of relief- with fingers crossed.



Still getting the party ready, though! If I stop, it'll head right back to bite us you know where.

Up here in Northern Pinellas, things aren't too bad... Yet...

I heard (and saw pics from friends) that Orlando shelves are getting barren... Which is ridiculous, but Orlando is a special place with special people, so no surprise there.

[TerraDown]

Like Travelassie, I too am beginning to breathe. It looked pretty scary yesterday and this morning, with the eye going right over downtown Ft. Myers on one model. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone, but glad to see the models shifting a bit more west for sure.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by TerraDown

Like Travelassie, I too am beginning to breathe. It looked pretty scary yesterday and this morning, with the eye going right over downtown Ft. Myers on one model. I don't wish a hurricane on anyone, but glad to see the models shifting a bit more west for sure.

You won't get jack.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by Arcenal813

Up here in Northern Pinellas, things aren't too bad... Yet...

I heard (and saw pics from friends) that Orlando shelves are getting barren... Which is ridiculous, but Orlando is a special place with special people, so no surprise there.

Hard to tell right now, but it may go north of you. As I see it, if it's a Cat 4 storm as it comes up north parallel to the FL west coast, unless it's way out there, we will experience some pretty intense effects of the storm. We'll know it's out there, with at least tropical storm force winds, maybe higher gusts, lots of rain ( generally these come in bands when you aren't right in the storm,)high wave action along the coast, flooding in vulnerable areas ( though you could also get the flooding in a heavy summer afternoon rain)

As I heard it said, seems the shelves in this neck of the woods were picked pretty bare as well. My impression was that as soon as the local news media started telling people it was time to stock up on their hurricane supplies, and listed what these included, the throngs descended on grocery stores, hardware stores, even dollar stores, and gas stations and picked them clean. To hear some our neighbors tell it, as of this morning there was no bottled water, no paper products ( toilet paper, paper towels, paper plates) and no gas left. I'm sure it was restocked, but since I do my hurricane prep in June ( been in FL for 46 years, been through a few hurricanes, and know what is needed and needs done) I had no need to get out there and fight the mobs.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

You won't get jack.

We can hope.

[sm0key]

THE LAWYERS will get most of the money.

[beachmouse]

The GFS remains a western outlier in the overnight runs as a lot of the rest of the more reliable ones seem to want to put it somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. I’m wondering if a system that stayed just offshore before land falling at Cedar Key might actually be worse than a direct hit on Tampa since it could increase funneling in Tampa Bay and a lot of the South Tampa/Davis Island area is very low-lying.

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

The GFS remains a western outlier in the overnight runs as a lot of the rest of the more reliable ones seem to want to put it somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. I’m wondering if a system that stayed just offshore before land falling at Cedar Key might actually be worse than a direct hit on Tampa since it could increase funneling in Tampa Bay and a lot of the South Tampa/Davis Island area is very low-lying.

It would be bad for all the west coast from Tampa to Cedar key magee. The track it is on now is perfect for me. Winds would be under 80mph and i would get around 5" of rain. Anymore west and i won't get jack, closer to the east it could pull up a bowl of water 12ft high since i am right on the gulf. The way the land mass is shaped the worst would be around Cedar key since the land goes to the west and would pile up water. Tampa bay ray would get some high water but nothing that bad. But way more to the east is the track jack then would be a horse of a diff color.

Way TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO early yo know bro. It's gonna flop flop.

[Travelassie]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

The GFS remains a western outlier in the overnight runs as a lot of the rest of the more reliable ones seem to want to put it somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend. I’m wondering if a system that stayed just offshore before land falling at Cedar Key might actually be worse than a direct hit on Tampa since it could increase funneling in Tampa Bay and a lot of the South Tampa/Davis Island area is very low-lying.

Very well might be.

[Corrie22]

Originally Posted by beachmouse

The GFS remains a western outlier in the overnight runs as a lot of the rest of the more reliable ones

what "more reliable ones" are you talking about?

last year the GFS out predicted them all....GFS was retuned last year....and even beat out ECMWF which had been in the #1 spot for years