[hiknapster]

Regarding the oil prices:

The low prices are boosting the economy, which would be sluggish due to the real estate slowdown.

Price per barrel is down because of the unusually warm winter. Trees are blooming in Central Park, that wouldn't normally bloom until April or May. People that work there say they've never seen anything like it.

Be careful.

If that same heat lasts until the summer, Florida's gulf and Atlantic are going to start getting really hot again, like 2004 and 2005.

I wouldn't celebrate that just yet.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

There are many different opinions regarding the issue of housing. This is normally where I would place 20 photos and 10 links, but today I won't do that.

The bubble is just starting to burst.

My opinion is primarily directed by the fact that my old rental, which is a beautiful, affordable house in a safe beach community, is still vacant and still for sale. It is also guided by the fact that a person who just bought a place comparable to the one I currently reside in is paying $600/month more than I am. That is too much just "to own." I also kept me eye on a St. Pete Beach auction. Nobody showed up and now there are a bunch of rental signs out front.

I am also listening to other "soft" factors like people discussing the Carolinas, Georgia, and Tennessee. It's not just snowbirds, but 3rd generation Floridians as well. Also, the fact that State Farm lost a major Katrina case today does not bode well for the insurance crisis.

Of course as I said at the beginning of this thread I do agree that there are problem areas here in FLA and around the country. That does NOT make the entire area or country a problem. Sure you can post pics of ST Pete Beach – it has a high concentration of non-owner occupant housing of which many are being considered for sale. On top of which the beach went overboard in new construction. No surprise there are more than average units for sale. But that doesn’t mean anything to the guy in Palm Harbor who is in a neighborhood with homes selling and inventory going lower. Also don’t be in denial that the economy is looking good interest rates are low and local factors like taxes and insurance are being seriously worked on. Employment is up as are wages and yes so are sales of homes starting to pick up.

Moderator cut: inflamatory
Shores9


If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum

[Shores9]

PROPERTY INSURANCE

Thursday was a busy day in the insurance reform arena as Gov. Charlie Crist applauded legislative leaders for the commitment they're already making to "providing immediate relief" to property owners struggling with the high costs of insurance.

Shores9


If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum

[Need_affordable_home]

The bubble is still deflating. Realtors predict a 9% drop in Florida house prices for 2007 but if a big hurricane comes, drops could be over 50%. I wish my parents had sold their house in the peak. The price drops will wipe their equity, maybe they wont even bother selling if prices drop too low.

[tallrick]

It's a standoff, prices will go up and down a long time before the crash. Tell me how real estate prices can stay he same or go up if incomes are stagnant? Or is it not necessary to work for a living anymore?

[Prichard]

prices will go up and down a long time before the crash.

Moderator cut: cut
See, sooner or later there probably will be a crash - could be one month, one year, 10 years, or 50 years. What's a "long time" anyway? And, it's a guaranty that prices will go up and down prior to the crash, they always do!

The truth is that there wasn't a crash, and it doesn't look like there is going to be one in the near future either. Personally, I still think condo sales in and around Orlando will be depressed for the next year to three years. That is a different market than single family residential, and it was, and is still being, way overbuilt. As far as new construction for single family residential in and around Central Florida, it came to a screaching stop about a year ago, and very little new product is coming on the market, or is even in the planning stages. It will take one to two years for the builders to get ramped up again to where they are entitling new land and creating new neighborhoods. Supply (other than high-priced condos) is definitely decreasing, not rappidly, but it is decreasing nevertheless.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Shores9

No surprise there are more than average units for sale. But that doesn’t mean anything to the guy in Palm Harbor

I think it means something for this guy in Palm Harbor.

[wacahootaman]

The number of listings for sale in many North Florida Markets that I have tracked have more than doubled in a year. And there are far fewer sales too. When supply soars and demand falls, it is basic folks. Prices will have to come down.

However real estate is a lot different than most products. Because most sellers wont lower their prices until forced to by personal circumstances the price drop is delayed but it is comming.

Every real estate market has a price appreciation trend line. Prices increase above that line in boom times and below that line in slow times. If you look at most Florida real estate trend lines, you see that the last big fall off in prices below that trend line happened in the early 90s and the slump lasted up to 10 years in some markets.

Prices more than doubled in most Fla markets in the last 5 years. A price increase this fast and this broad has never happened before so this slump will also be even longer and deeper than those before too..

I do think there my be a small spring bounce to the market but it will fall again soon afterward and stay down for years to come.

The huge issues with home owners insurance and the abusive property taxes demanded of new property owners by the county will further retard the market.

A bad hurricane season or a spike in interest rates could really cause it to fall even worse.

If I had cash and wanted to buy I would wait a year as the wave of forclosures hasnt hit yet.

[brian_2]

housingbubbleblog.blogspot.com

Optimist or pessimist regarding the direction of real estate values? Whichever it is, you can still have a little fun kicking around this blog. Don't miss the photo gallery!

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by wacahootaman

The number of listings for sale in many North Florida Markets that I have tracked have more than doubled in a year. And there are far fewer sales too. When supply soars and demand falls, it is basic folks. Prices will have to come down.

However real estate is a lot different than most products. Because most sellers wont lower their prices until forced to by personal circumstances the price drop is delayed but it is comming.

Every real estate market has a price appreciation trend line. Prices increase above that line in boom times and below that line in slow times. If you look at most Florida real estate trend lines, you see that the last big fall off in prices below that trend line happened in the early 90s and the slump lasted up to 10 years in some markets.

Prices more than doubled in most Fla markets in the last 5 years. A price increase this fast and this broad has never happened before so this slump will also be even longer and deeper than those before too..

I do think there my be a small spring bounce to the market but it will fall again soon afterward and stay down for years to come.

The huge issues with home owners insurance and the abusive property taxes demanded of new property owners by the county will further retard the market.

A bad hurricane season or a spike in interest rates could really cause it to fall even worse.

If I had cash and wanted to buy I would wait a year as the wave of forclosures hasnt hit yet.

Could it be that the number of listings doubled in a year because the previous year's number was so low and now things are returning to normal. Well maybe it’s not that cut and dry but the scenario does go along those lines. And talking about trend lines please point out for my [our] benefit when in the past aside from the depression did the nation or Florida experience a year over year decline in home prices.

Sure there have been past run-ups followed by long periods of slower growth but the trends are UP. And to compare our current economy to anything else in the past is also a problem for [too] many reasons to discuss here.

As you point out sellers will wait. And while they wait incomes increase as does population and demand.

Taxes and insurance are being addressed in every Town Hall around the country. States are not waiting for the federal government to lead the way they are taking measures into their own hands and solving problems specific to their areas.

Shores9


If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum