So What Happened to the Bubble???

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

I think you have to register (it's free and doesn't take long), but yes the article talks about all of this.

Here are some snippets:
"Subprime" loans are available to people who have bad credit, though they charge interest rates 2 to 3 percent higher than the rates charged to borrowers with good credit. About a fifth of the loans originated in 2006 now fall into that category, up from about 5 percent in 1999, according to the Federal Reserve."

and

"The biggest risk lurking behind all these loans is the threat of foreclosure. Last month, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage delinquencies were on the rise, particularly for costly subprime loans. Likewise, the Center for Responsible Lending said in a recent report that more than 19 percent of subprime loans made in 2005 and 2006 are at risk of foreclosure."

Here is the link:
Mortgage-Trapped

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...011300029.html

Muggy thanks for the link – I read it -nice article – great media!!. Any loan by loose definition that is not a 15 or 30 year fixed with a 20% or greater down payment is considered nontraditional by some standards. 90% financing on a thirty year fixed is nontraditional!! Piggy backs are nontraditional – subprime are nontraditional. Arms are nontraditional.

Further – I agree that subprime loans were and I do mean were [past tense] on the rise, but that was for about an 18 month period and during that period only about 20% of those NONTRADITIONAL loans were the most risky.

So what about the rest of the last 10 years of [recent] purchases and what about the remaining [80%] of the nontraditional loans over the last year and what about the all the traditional loans over the last year???? Are they all un-qualified people as you seem to suggest.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Shores9

So what about the rest of the last 10 years of [recent] purchases

I think many of those people are trying to sell and/or rent.










Look at #2 - the rent sign lists a 1/1 and a 2/1. That sounds like speculation to me.

[B.Frost]

Greetings,
Something I have noticed about the market is that its all about location,
I own a home in Port Orange and the market there has fallen for existing homes.
The value took 9yrs to double and its starting to slide down , yet I have another home in Gilchrist county on lots of acres(10+) and the value has gone up 3.5x in 4yrs and from the amount of offers we get monthly its just going up....
So its very much based on location as to how the market is going.

[Arrgh]

Overall I believe it is the particular market you are in. North Port properties dropped about 20 to 30% in the last year or so and are now stabilizing. I own many single family rentals there and the rents have alos been driven down by speculator/investors who bought high and are trying to hold on until the market starts growing again. They are renting standard 1200SF " spec " houses for about 950 to 1000 per month. Granted, most of them are on well water (yuck!) with the septic right over the well and are of FAIR construction at best.
2007 will probably see a modest increase, 3 to 5% with the following years appreciating at a more sustainable 8 to 12% PER YEAR. My Guess is that Crist will lower insurance rates by about 25% which would help immensely. The Carolinas are cheap now, but I have family up there and they say the traffic is increasing, taxes are nudging upward etc etc, the same thing that happened here a few years ago. As to people moving out Vs. in, try this......I have many friends in NY who are approaching retirement, most will have a decent pension, NYPD, Con Ed etc. They own houses with a FMV of 500K, on average with little or no mortgage. Their taxes average about 8000 per year plus a state and city income tax. To them Florida is Free! It all comes down to perspective, hurricanes V. Blizzards, sunshine V crime.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by scamutz

If you were waiting until the market hit bottom before buying, you're running out of time quickly.

That's strange. Most of the neighborhoods in St. Petersburg seem to have a lot of inventory. Here is a compilation of 'For Sale' signs in Venetian Isles.

Several of these homes in this nice community even have 'For Rent' signs.

[Floridanative2]

Originally Posted by Muggy

There are many different opinions regarding the issue of housing. This is normally where I would place 20 photos and 10 links, but today I won't do that.

The bubble is just starting to burst.

My opinion is primarily directed by the fact that my old rental, which is a beautiful, affordable house in a safe beach community, is still vacant and still for sale. It is also guided by the fact that a person who just bought a place comparable to the one I currently reside in is paying $600/month more than I am. That is too much just "to own." I also kept me eye on a St. Pete Beach auction. Nobody showed up and now there are a bunch of rental signs out front.

I am also listening to other "soft" factors like people discussing the Carolinas, Georgia, and Tennessee. It's not just snowbirds, but 3rd generation Floridians as well. Also, the fact that State Farm lost a major Katrina case today does not bode well for the insurance crisis.

I agree Muggy, I am one of those Florida people. I could stay here, I own a decent house, got in before the prices went through the roof, but the insurance costs just may make my affordable house,-unaffordable!
I know so many people that are moving to Georgia, and the Carolinas, it is unreal!

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

That's strange. Most of the neighborhoods in St. Petersburg seem to have a lot of inventory. Here is a compilation of 'For Sale' signs in Venetian Isles.

Several of these homes in this nice community even have 'For Rent' signs.

Muggy - in your previous you said you would post 20 pics. I count 24… 23 of which are of Venetian Isles - a very nice community as you mention. FYI there are 550+ homes in Venetian Isles and aside from 2004 and 2005 – the 20-25 or about 5% of homes for sale in this community is [at any given point in time] at or below average.

Imagine just 3 years ago you could have bought a single family home in one of Pinellas County’s best communities for 350k and you would have been on the on the water. That’s about what one would have to pay for a decent town home today in Pinellas Park.

Seems like a lot of homes you pictured in your post but when there spread out over this amount of ground (and the picture below is only half of Venetian Isles it’s really not that much –



Sorry you couldn’t get a picture with multiple for sale signs in a row that a hard one for Venetian Isles, Snell Island or any number of other nice communities Pinellas County

[firemed]

[lulu]

I heard it's getting better in some parts...though, the 2 homes within 2 blocks of me are still sitting there - and they are nice - have been reduced, too.

[jbravo]

1.Area 2.Available Inventory 3.New 4.Avg. List Price 5.Pending 6.Sales 7.Avg Sale Price 8.Median Sale Price 9.10.SP/LP 10.Avg.DOM 11.With/drawn
12. Expired 13.BOM


thus: Coral Gables 469 65 1,854,900 15 27 1,218,354 725,000 94.9 95 21 49 5

means: In Coral Gables the availavle inventory in single family homes in the MLS is 469; 65 are new listings; the avarage list price is over 1.8mil; there are 15 pending sales; THERE WERE 27 sales; the avarage sales price was over 1.2 mil; the midian sales price was 725K; the asking price selling price percentage was 94.9%; avarage days on market was 95; 21 listings were withdrawn; 49 expired; and finally 5 went back on the market.

For REAL adult entertainment check out Miami: 7,385 1,176 527,625 237 383... over 7000 listings AND 383 sales!!

here's all of them:

Atlantis 1 0 199,999 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Aventura 79 10 1,289,537 3 4 940,875 945,000 89.3 73 3 9 0
Bal Harbour 10 0 6,197,090 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Bay Harbor Islands 17 0 1,854,053 0 2 2,375,000 2,375,000 95.1 107 0 0 0
Biscayne Park 36 8 463,548 1 2 422,500 422,500 95.5 213 3 3 1
Biscayne Gardens 22 1 373,755 1 1 415,000 415,000 88.3 24 2 4 2
Boca Raton 344 44 632,334 3 9 506,167 351,500 96.4 135 29 45 4
Boynton Beach 196 43 519,437 2 3 296,667 307,000 97.2 97 13 32 3
Un-Incorp Broward Co. 9 1 417,200 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Canal Point 2 0 324,500 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 1 0
Cloud Lake 1 0 149,900 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Coconut Creek 317 46 427,822 5 25 387,952 369,000 97.2 99 16 31 2
Coconut Grove 142 13 1,589,347 4 5 1,228,000 1,484,000 92.1 66 5 10 2
Cooper City 277 56 526,978 11 21 402,699 379,000 96.8 103 13 27 2
Coral Gables 469 65 1,854,900 15 27 1,218,354 725,000 94.9 95 21 49 5
Coral Springs 971 129 535,369 28 60 458,202 447,450 96.0 79 39 104 15
Unincorp Dade Co. 99 9 479,665 1 5 363,800 340,000 95.6 124 7 16 1
Dania 253 35 341,256 7 5 200,680 165,000 92.4 122 8 25 3
Davie 848 103 749,534 26 47 598,074 492,500 95.3 94 30 96 8
Deerfield Beach 381 50 496,082 7 21 375,733 325,000 95.6 87 15 51 2
Delray Beach 97 18 603,948 2 2 299,569 299,568 63.2 47 8 10 0
Doral 225 38 706,172 13 6 639,000 542,500 95.0 127 7 24 5
Eastern Shores 10 1 2,294,500 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
El Portal 44 5 512,373 0 2 363,750 363,750 98.5 74 0 2 3
Florida City 107 15 242,918 2 2 164,150 164,150 92.8 59 2 16 2
Fort Lauderdale 2,182 326 980,505 40 97 548,933 339,500 94.6 100 119 233 27
Fort Pierce 49 12 385,600 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 1 6 0
Golden Beach 66 5 4,719,924 0 1 4,355,000 4,355,000 83.8 729 2 7 0
Goulds 3 0 303,666 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Green Acres 18 3 378,156 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2 0
Gulfstream 1 0 895,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Gulfview 1 1 345,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Hallandale 144 22 852,802 1 3 308,333 285,000 96.1 65 12 21 0
Hialeah 369 67 373,440 18 28 337,314 339,000 96.2 89 16 48 3
Hialeah Gardens 45 9 423,217 2 4 453,500 452,000 91.7 70 1 3 0
Highland Beach 4 1 5,142,498 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Hillsboro Beach 7 2 7,794,143 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 1 0 0
Hobe Sound 6 0 559,617 0 1 349,900 349,900 100.3 32 1 1 0
Hollywood 1,437 236 446,046 52 66 395,048 304,000 95.4 85 83 185 12
Homestead 1,280 175 377,320 29 60 339,788 304,938 97.6 103 60 146 10
Hypoluxo 1 0 2,800,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Indian Creek 5 0 17,340,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Islands/Caribbean 6 0 2,532,500 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2 0
Jensen Beach 3 1 383,233 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Juno Beach 2 1 573,950 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Jupiter 29 5 759,751 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 1 5 0
Kendall 49 8 441,203 2 2 541,000 541,000 93.4 80 2 10 0
Key Biscayne 96 11 3,555,427 5 2 1,810,000 1,810,000 92.6 150 0 5 2
Lake Park 2 1 232,450 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Lakeworth 182 23 443,604 2 1 265,000 265,000 98.2 36 13 31 1
Lantana 22 1 336,963 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 5 2 0
Lauderdale By The Sea 67 15 1,138,967 1 2 573,000 573,000 94.5 188 0 7 0
Lauderhill 227 51 354,749 5 21 298,158 279,000 90.7 85 11 27 4
Lauderdale Lakes 109 22 292,251 6 11 277,000 280,000 98.5 72 6 12 4
Lazy Lake 1 0 735,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 0 0
Lighthouse Point 251 35 1,457,426 2 6 1,146,583 1,005,000 97.1 223 18 20 2
Loxahatchee 54 7 494,033 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 7 6 0
Margate 506 83 319,968 14 31 299,977 310,000 97.1 72 16 60 6
Medley 2 0 445,000 0 0 0 0 0.0 0 0 2 0
Miami 7,385 1,176 527,625 237 383 395,430 357,000 96.6 82 372 858 112
West Palm Beach 180 19 376,277 3 1 399,000 399,000 100.0 40 7 34 2
Total 32,037 4,785 716,647 902 1,541 469,034 365,000 96.4 91 1,585 3,807 408

Is that enough data? I have more(condo sales are really bad by comparison)
It only allows 5000 characters