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Old 01-12-2007, 12:04 PM
 
Location: St Pete -- formally LI, NY
628 posts, read 1,676,532 times
Reputation: 231

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There was a period of time when everywhere you turned all you heard or read was that the sky was falling on real estate. What Happened??? Are these stories old news, are they no longer relevant, or are they just not believable enough and no longer sell papers

Sure there are plenty of personal stories about whatís happening around the corner with a friendís house or someone posting pictures of for sale or open house signs on a street corner (always seems to be the same corner) but how come prices are not falling through the floor.

Yes activity has slowed but 2006 was the 3rd best year on record for number of sales of existing homes and although the numbers may not increase significantly 2007 is expected to be at least as good if not a bit better than 2006. In addition the average sales price and inventory have stabilized over the last 2-3 months and 2006 is expected to beat 2005 in year over year prices. Moving forward the expectation is that there will be nominal price growth to start 2007 gradually increasing towards 2008.

Another question Ė What about those trillions of dollars resetting on the ARMís. Could it be that the increasing number of refis reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association mean that many people have taken advantage of the low interest rates that have been and will be available for the foreseeable future to refinance their mortgage. Maybe they really donít care because the current [Treasury] index has not moved enough to raise their rate anyway.

Oh I forgot houses are just too expensive and on that alone they will have to come down??? Well looking at the employment data over the last several months ever increasing numbers of workers seem to be added to the nations payroll and their average wage is also increasing meaning more money and low interest rates are contributing to better/higher affordability.

Quote from Dow Jones Market Watch ďFor many residential real-estate markets in the U.S., this year started with an advantage to sellers and ended with buyers holding the upper hand. But, unlike some people had expected, the switch didn't follow the deafening "pop" of a massive real estate bubble.Ē

I do agree that there are problem areas here in FLA and around the country but after almost 20 months of market correction it does not look like we will see the 30-50% drop most of you bears are hoping for and in fact as each day passes it increasingly looks like we have seen the bottom.


PS I forgot to mention the price of oil. There has been a steady decline in the price of oil and that will eventually translate into better profits and more money for the consumer to spend. And Insurance - As for Florida the issue of insurance it yet to be determined but it looks like some positive news is on the horizon


Shores9
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o263/Shores9/DSC_0060s.jpg (broken link)

If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum

 
Old 01-12-2007, 12:19 PM
 
17,297 posts, read 25,696,687 times
Reputation: 8567
I don't think house prices will fall precipitously enough to hurt anyone except those that bought at the peak, and speculators. Even then, people who bought at peak will still see gains if they just STAY in their damn house for 10 or so years. If people who bought their houses 5 years ago make 10-20% less on a resale tomorrow than they would at bubble's peak, they're still going to come out on top, and outperform many markets elsewhere where there is little demand for homes, like Ohio or something like that.
 
Old 01-12-2007, 12:25 PM
 
68 posts, read 207,670 times
Reputation: 23
The Orlando Sentinel. “Orlando’s hot housing market lost much of its spark in the second half of 2006. The number of homes for sale in December dipped below 20,000 properties for the first time since July, to 19,537 listings. But that still represented a more than 11-month supply at the recent, more sluggish sales pace.”

“‘There’s just a lot more supply than demand out there,’ said William Weaver, a University of Central Florida finance professor and real-estate specialist. ‘Basic economics 101 tells you that prices are going to get softer.’”

“Weaver warned that, even with lower interest rates, many home buyers who bought at or near the market’s peak in 2004 or 2005 using ‘various exotic mortgages’ and adjustable loans with low ‘teaser rates’ will be trying to sell in the weaker market.”
 
Old 01-12-2007, 01:59 PM
 
43 posts, read 190,358 times
Reputation: 24
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shores9 View Post
[b]
The Tampa market also has its second best year in history!

Total residential sales were lower for 2006 at 21,583 units compared to 28,856 in 2005 but were higher than the 20,329 units sold in 2004 and the average single family home price rose 15.8% from 244,617 in 2005 to 283,381 in 2006 [/i]
And the quarter by quarter numbers show what?....my guess is a steep downward trend starting around the mid point of the year. In other words, had the first half trend continued 06' would have beaten 05', but it dropped off enough in the second half of the year to actually finish 25% below 06' in units. Go ahead....prove me wrong.
 
Old 01-12-2007, 02:06 PM
 
Location: Fort Mill, SC
269 posts, read 963,926 times
Reputation: 77
I haven't been around in a while...and I just jumped in while I had a bit of time to see how it's going. The reason I haven't been around...becuase I've been busy selling houses. If every month is like this past December, then the bubble is most assuredly gone. I've got more traffic coming through my model (I sell new homes) than I've had in a year and a half, and January is shaping up to be great.

Let people spout their doom and gloom all they want....we just had a 20k increase and things are on their way back up. wooohooo!

If you were waiting until the market hit bottom before buying, you're running out of time quickly.
 
Old 01-12-2007, 02:25 PM
 
Location: St Pete -- formally LI, NY
628 posts, read 1,676,532 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by FLBoy View Post
And the quarter by quarter numbers show what?....my guess is a steep downward trend starting around the mid point of the year. In other words, had the first half trend continued 06' would have beaten 05', but it dropped off enough in the second half of the year to actually finish 25% below 06' in units. Go ahead....prove me wrong.
Iím not suggesting that there was not a fall off in sales [# of units] activity. It was inevitable that at some point it would have to turn downward and correct. Fact remains that unit prices are still advancing, inventory has stabilized and is starting to subside, interest rate are low and the overall economy is perking along AND we have yet to see a catastrophic drop in the real estate market by any measure.


Shores9
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o263/Shores9/DSC_0060s.jpg (broken link)

If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum
 
Old 01-12-2007, 02:35 PM
 
Location: St Pete -- formally LI, NY
628 posts, read 1,676,532 times
Reputation: 231
Quote:
Originally Posted by scamutz View Post
I haven't been around in a while...and I just jumped in while I had a bit of time to see how it's going. The reason I haven't been around...becuase I've been busy selling houses. If every month is like this past December, then the bubble is most assuredly gone. I've got more traffic coming through my model (I sell new homes) than I've had in a year and a half, and January is shaping up to be great.

Let people spout their doom and gloom all they want....we just had a 20k increase and things are on their way back up. wooohooo!

If you were waiting until the market hit bottom before buying, you're running out of time quickly.
Scamutz Ė Same for me December was a good month and January is already shaping up to be the same. Iím in general sales and keep my client base to a limited number and things have been good not only for me but many of the agents Iíve spoken with.



Shores9
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o263/Shores9/DSC_0060s.jpg (broken link)

If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum
 
Old 01-12-2007, 03:12 PM
 
94 posts, read 386,914 times
Reputation: 44
See realtors lining up to prove housing is good. "TRUST US! HOUSING IS GOOD! BUY NOW OR PRICED OUT FOREVER! THEY ARE NOT MAKING ANYMORE LAND! IT IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY! THIS HOUSE IS SPEACIAL! , GRANITE COUNTERS, STAINLESS APPLIANCES, WON'T LAST,

Well if it is all that good why do some realtors have to prove to us that it is Some of the things they say are laughable to say the least. Many people already know the situation , too late for that BS when years of inventory in some counties and sales decreasing steadily for months in a row.

For the rest of us who dont live in the lala land Florida Association of Realtors website gives the facts (well I am reluctant to quote them as I do not trust a realtor 100% but we have to start somewhere)

ORLANDO, Fla. – Jan. 2, 2007 – Sales of existing homes and condos in Florida were down in November – traditionally a slow month for the housing sector; at the same time, many markets reported that the inventory of homes available for sale continued to stabilize. A total of 11,912 existing single-family homes sold statewide last month, a decrease of 30 percent from the 17,088 homes sold during the previous November, according to the Florida Association of Realtorsģ (FAR). The statewide existing-home median price was $242,500 last month; a year ago, it was $250,400 for a decrease of 3 percent, according to FAR.

Last edited by josephhawkinson; 01-12-2007 at 03:31 PM..
 
Old 01-12-2007, 03:26 PM
 
944 posts, read 3,536,439 times
Reputation: 578
There are many different opinions regarding the issue of housing. This is normally where I would place 20 photos and 10 links, but today I won't do that.

The bubble is just starting to burst.

My opinion is primarily directed by the fact that my old rental, which is a beautiful, affordable house in a safe beach community, is still vacant and still for sale. It is also guided by the fact that a person who just bought a place comparable to the one I currently reside in is paying $600/month more than I am. That is too much just "to own." I also kept me eye on a St. Pete Beach auction. Nobody showed up and now there are a bunch of rental signs out front.

I am also listening to other "soft" factors like people discussing the Carolinas, Georgia, and Tennessee. It's not just snowbirds, but 3rd generation Floridians as well. Also, the fact that State Farm lost a major Katrina case today does not bode well for the insurance crisis.
 
Old 01-12-2007, 03:52 PM
 
Location: St Pete -- formally LI, NY
628 posts, read 1,676,532 times
Reputation: 231
Jan. 12, 2007 Ė Lawmakers could put a property tax relief measure before voters as early as this fall, Senate Finance and Taxation Committee Chairman Mike Haridopolos said Thursday

Shores9
http://i122.photobucket.com/albums/o263/Shores9/DSC_0060s.jpg (broken link)

If you have a shot of Tampa Bay or FLA and want to post it or just check out some great pictures see Florida Pic thread on the general Florida forum
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