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Old 07-10-2008, 09:42 AM
 
1,234 posts, read 1,064,860 times
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I do not believe that we are near or at bottom in the Fl. home market. How can we be?

I am in Pasco County Fl. and most of the homes for sale are still priced way too high and of course they are NOT selling. What is selling is Foreclosure REO properties and they are selling for about 1/3 or so of 18-24 mos. ago!

Why is anyone going to want to purchase a 2005-6 market priced home when they can steal one from a bank for 30-40% of that value? Perhaps when sellers drop their prices to reflect current actual values, (and when they do so in mass), we may see a definable bottom.

We just purchased a home for 1/3rd of 2006 prices. It took all cash and it was a foreclosure sale. This prices it at the cost of the home when it was built back in 1978 or so. To us that represents true value. The home in in very good condition with many upgrades. It took many hours of diligent searching to find the right home.

We plan to live in the home and are not overly concerned that the value will continue to drop. Short of a major depression we should do very well. Even if that occurs other prices will drop, relatively speaking. There is a real world advantage to No debt.

To us, pre-boom (1998 or earlier) pricing looks good enough to purchase. We did. We also waited for 30 months!

Consider.... When was the last time any Realtor told you that NOW is NOT a good time to buy? Wonder why?

Use your common sense and do your homework. If you need a home for your family and can afford to pay for it without breaking yourself, take advantage of this downturn and house yourselves. Wait out the downturn and pay off your homes. Good Luck.
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Old 07-10-2008, 11:42 AM
 
85 posts, read 181,676 times
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isn't there like a million foreclosures out there that haven't even hit the market
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:01 AM
 
180 posts, read 718,721 times
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I do not feel we have reached the bottom yet, but I don't think prices will continue to slide at the fast pace we have seen over the past year either. Many here on this forum have stated that prices will reach 2001-2003 prices. I think this is just false speculation. First of all, since the boom in China, concrete has doubled in cost from the 2001 prices, virgin steel has almost doubled in just the last 4 months, roofing material have doubled since the few hurricanes we had a couple years ago, and who knows how much of building material cost will increase over the next few months from soaring gas prices. Once new homes prices increase then you will see existing homes sell off their inventories. And some places such as Tampa, the rent prices per sqft have matched monthly mortgage payment. This is usually the breaking point when people ask themselves, why rent when I can have our money going towards principal.

It is my opinion that prices have started to stabilize. More people will be able to get loans once the mortgage crisis gets resolved and banks are able to free up more money for loans. I also believe the trend of baby boomer moving down to Florida will pick up again now that insurance prices have decreased considerably and the property tax have adjusted to home prices. In reality, it wasn't that bad anyways, for example, up state New Yorkers pay almost 2.5 times more in property tax then Floridians.

For those who are waiting for the deal of the century, wait till end of the year when banks auction off all those foreclosures as an end of the year tax write off. For those who are trying to sell your home, you might have to wait till those all those foreclosures sell.
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Old 07-11-2008, 11:15 AM
 
15,209 posts, read 31,178,329 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boomer View Post
I do not feel we have reached the bottom yet, but I don't think prices will continue to slide at the fast pace we have seen over the past year either. Many here on this forum have stated that prices will reach 2001-2003 prices. I think this is just false speculation. First of all, since the boom in China, concrete has doubled in cost from the 2001 prices, virgin steel has almost doubled in just the last 4 months, roofing material have doubled since the few hurricanes we had a couple years ago, and who knows how much of building material cost will increase over the next few months from soaring gas prices. Once new homes prices increase then you will see existing homes sell off their inventories. And some places such as Tampa, the rent prices per sqft have matched monthly mortgage payment. This is usually the breaking point when people ask themselves, why rent when I can have our money going towards principal.

It is my opinion that prices have started to stabilize. More people will be able to get loans once the mortgage crisis gets resolved and banks are able to free up more money for loans. I also believe the trend of baby boomer moving down to Florida will pick up again now that insurance prices have decreased considerably and the property tax have adjusted to home prices. In reality, it wasn't that bad anyways, for example, up state New Yorkers pay almost 2.5 times more in property tax then Floridians.

For those who are waiting for the deal of the century, wait till end of the year when banks auction off all those foreclosures as an end of the year tax write off. For those who are trying to sell your home, you might have to wait till those all those foreclosures sell.
I agree 100% with this post!
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Old 07-11-2008, 12:00 PM
 
17,297 posts, read 25,714,714 times
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I STILL think that people need to factor in future interest rate predictions. Since the vast vast majority of people need a mortgage to buy a house, it'll be a sad day for many when interest rates rise, causing home prices to fall, and then end up with the same payment.


Not saying it's "time to buy" now, but people need to look at more factors than just raw "prices."
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Old 07-11-2008, 05:03 PM
 
7 posts, read 12,365 times
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The market appears to start recovering and then someone says "don't buy yet" and it crashes again. It can go either way and sadly it depends alot on what the media is putting out. This from someone who is not a realtor or an investor. There are alot of good deals out there and many are being bought by the same ones who are saying don't buy yet.
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:20 PM
 
Location: Central FL
1,683 posts, read 7,584,195 times
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I am certainly not a realtor or investor, but I have seen homes beginning to sell in my area. My son has two friends, one at church, another at work, who closed on homes this week.

He's saving his money for a nice down payment on his first home, it's certainly looking like a good time to buy. I have been watching homes in the Lake Nona/Avalon area for him and for the past two years prices have gone down...down....down. Lately, they seem to have stabilized if not risen just a little. This is just from my observation in one area. I'm not trying to comment on the market in the entire state.
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Old 07-11-2008, 10:34 PM
 
Location: Living in Paradise
5,702 posts, read 22,267,244 times
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Houses and land are selling in the NW are of the state. Prices are more reasonable and sellers, buyers and Realtors are more realistic with the actual cost of the home....
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Old 07-12-2008, 06:51 AM
 
15,209 posts, read 31,178,329 times
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Some areas are recovering. As I have mentioned in some previous posts, we are closing soon on a house in Sarasota/Bradenton area. In the past few months, pending sales have been going up, and up - inventory has dropped by almost half from last year I have read. Also in today's paper there is an article about building permits up in both Sarasota and Bradenton. So I would say this areas is slowly starting to recover. However, the same article says that North Port and Port Charlotte are still mired in inventory and foreclosures. So it is definitely all regional.

People just need to watch the area they are interested in if they want to purchase a home at some point.
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Old 07-12-2008, 07:38 AM
 
10,604 posts, read 14,217,570 times
Reputation: 17203
Quote:
Originally Posted by Queenofhearts View Post
The market appears to start recovering and then someone says "don't buy yet" and it crashes again. It can go either way and sadly it depends alot on what the media is putting out. This from someone who is not a realtor or an investor. There are alot of good deals out there and many are being bought by the same ones who are saying don't buy yet.
But you're married to a realtor, right?

So naturally you're going to see things his way versus the perspective of a buyer. Risking a life's savings for a neighborhood or HOA that has an uncertain future. In the middle of an economic downturn where renting is cheaper even if you throw away a years rent...I don't see the rush, frankly. Inventories are still through the roof, massive foreclosures in the pipeline and even the builder where I live, in an stable upscale gated community can't unload a lousy 14 lots since February not one sale.

Today they have a sign about an open house that says "lets bring florida back"....we'll see how they do.
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