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Old 07-12-2008, 08:01 AM
 
17,297 posts, read 25,706,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors View Post
But you're married to a realtor, right?

So naturally you're going to see things his way versus the perspective of a buyer. Risking a life's savings for a neighborhood or HOA that has an uncertain future. In the middle of an economic downturn where renting is cheaper even if you throw away a years rent...I don't see the rush, frankly. Inventories are still through the roof, massive foreclosures in the pipeline and even the builder where I live, in an stable upscale gated community can't unload a lousy 14 lots since February not one sale.

Today they have a sign about an open house that says "lets bring florida back"....we'll see how they do.


Again, I think people need to look at their individual areas and wants.

If you're looking to buy tract housing in a subdivision, you're probably best waiting things out. Yesterday there was a story here about how a condo developer struggling to sell over a hundred units is simply going to rent out those same units for a couple years, rather than give them away in a fire sale, however. Again, not saying that now is the time to buy one of those units, but you may not get the deal you want 1-2 years from now.

Developers are increasingly getting clever and creative.


I have one friend who is especially pessimisstic about the market. He believes he's going to get a remodeled 3/2 with a garage in the historic neighborhoods here in West Palm for $130k within the next year. I think he's crazy, especially as gas prices make living closer to downtown areas more attractive. There are still lots of reports of "cash" vulture buyers coming in and swopping up every good deal before "the rest of us" could get financing in line, and the problem with the historic neighborhoods are that most of the homes are owner-owned and unless the really gotta go, they'll just pull their "for sale" signs indoors and wait out the market.
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Old 07-12-2008, 08:33 AM
 
10,604 posts, read 14,208,493 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TriMT7 View Post
Again, I think people need to look at their individual areas and wants.

If you're looking to buy tract housing in a subdivision, you're probably best waiting things out. Yesterday there was a story here about how a condo developer struggling to sell over a hundred units is simply going to rent out those same units for a couple years, rather than give them away in a fire sale, however. Again, not saying that now is the time to buy one of those units, but you may not get the deal you want 1-2 years from now.

Developers are increasingly getting clever and creative.


I have one friend who is especially pessimisstic about the market. He believes he's going to get a remodeled 3/2 with a garage in the historic neighborhoods here in West Palm for $130k within the next year. I think he's crazy, especially as gas prices make living closer to downtown areas more attractive. There are still lots of reports of "cash" vulture buyers coming in and swopping up every good deal before "the rest of us" could get financing in line, and the problem with the historic neighborhoods are that most of the homes are owner-owned and unless the really gotta go, they'll just pull their "for sale" signs indoors and wait out the market.

I don't know how you're defining tract housing in a development. For me that means several homes in a contiguous area similar in style. That could mean old or new.

But for me it's irrelevant. There is inventory in every area, style and type of house in Florida and all housing in general has come down in price. (also I'd never buy new construction, anyway...been there done that).

I notice you're focusing on price. I'm focusing on instability/potential instability of the entire real estate market and neighborhoods.

Regarding the builder and possible fire sales...You're assuming people would want to live with others who bought simply because it's a fire sale, though. Never me. Same with builders and other investors putting any old random tenant in. THIS is precisely the problem NOW.

For fire sale buyers, that means people buying "up" usually and that's the last type of neighborhood I'm interested in. Especially now when realtors are still very happy to say they are putting people in houses with minimum percent down. Same old same old.

(I'm a cash buyer so the financing is not a concern to me and anybody who's serious should already have the financing "lined up" don't you think?)

I agree sellers are waiting. They HAVE BEEN waiting since last year if you follow the same areas month over month you can see the same old houses on the listings for hundreds of days and only a few new.

PRECISELY why there are fewer new listings therefore appearing that inventory is going down LOL....like the treadmill turtle on the comcast commercial feel the burn

There will be pent up demand of people who MUST SELL and even the people who inherit property of the elderly and they will be surprised to see that they will have to face the drop in price just like WE ALL DID after the fake spike in prices during the 90's.

I'd love to see the volume of these shadow buyers everyone keeps talking about. But when I look at sold properties they look quite normal to me. Not any billionaires swooping in scarfing up all the inventory. If you can direct me to the geographic area to research that I'd love to know. Just in case I'm wrong.

BTW I dont think the pessimist is completely wrong except you have a good point about gas being a driver.

Grandview Heights is in the 150,00 - 200,00 range and up right now. Maybe not 130 but who knows how many ARMS are adjusting there this year etc........
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:01 AM
 
17,297 posts, read 25,706,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors View Post

There will be pent up demand of people who MUST SELL and even the people who inherit property of the elderly and they will be surprised to see that they will have to face the drop in price just like WE ALL DID after the fake spike in prices during the 90's.
Do you expect existing home prices to fall below replacement value for same?

Quote:
Originally Posted by runswithscissors
I'd love to see the volume of these shadow buyers everyone keeps talking about. But when I look at sold properties they look quite normal to me. Not any billionaires swooping in scarfing up all the inventory. If you can direct me to the geographic area to research that I'd love to know. Just in case I'm wrong.
I think it's you whose son rents in Grandview Heights (could be confusing you with someone else)? Anyway, the same friend I mentioned above has been searching in Flamingo Park and Grandview Heights for many months now. One home he put an offer on is sale pending for a cash buyer. Another home he looked at, a short sale in the Vedado neighborhood, had an offer come in for $168k cash on a 174k listing.

You don't have to be a billionaire to "scoop up" bargain homes for cash in the 100s-150s range in desirable neighborhoods. It's why "tax sale" and "foreclosure sale" purchasing of homes is rarely an option for average people to purchase a home, despite what the late night infomercials claim. Those with the money and the experience will usually get all the "real" bargains before you're ever even aware it existed.

Again, you have to know YOUR particular neighborhood and YOUR particular area. What the real estate market is doing to downtown condos has no bearing on how craftsman bungalows are selling in Grandview, which has no bearing on the townhouse market in Jupiter, and certainly no bearing on the manse market on Palm Beach.

From what I see in MY neighborhood, however, if it's "priced right" it's going. "Too good to be true" generally = gone. This has been frustrating for that friend of mine (but even more so his fiance), who I've been observing as the text book "bargain hunter" in this market because everything in their (his) "dream" price range keeps disappearing. The inventory just isn't "there." Will it get better? Probably. Maybe. Who knows. Maybe that dream 3/2 with separate cottage and garage WILL come on the market for $150k and nobody else will want it before they get to it. Meanwhile, my "bargain hunter" friend loses a bid on a house over 5k difference, when the tax writeoffs alone would have made up the difference in a year or two.

Of course, there are still far too many listings for 299k that we will see drop, but there's a certain point when people will act because THEY value the home at that price. When I bought my house last month (after pulling teeth with a bank on a short sale that had rejected three other offers), there were four other listings on my street. ALL of them are now "sale pending," or "sold," ranging in price from 165k in a bank owned sale for a 2/2 fixer with cottage to an arms length over 350k sale for a fully remodeled 2/2.
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:13 AM
 
Location: Central FL
1,683 posts, read 7,582,793 times
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We have several realtors who live in our community. DH was speaking to one this week. She told him that homes under 200K in Orlando in a decent community went fast.

However, there is still a HUGE glut of homes in the 300K and up range.

We have been talking to her frequently for the past year or so and she had been telling us the market was dead - nothing moving. The last couple of times we talked to her, she had several closings coming up and was much relieved that at least some homes were beginning to move. However, there are still thousands of homes for sale....it's going to be a long haul.
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Old 07-12-2008, 09:16 AM
 
17,297 posts, read 25,706,613 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pianogal View Post
We have several realtors who live in our community. DH was speaking to one this week. She told him that homes under 200K in Orlando in a decent community went fast.

However, there is still a HUGE glut of homes in the 300K and up range.

We have been talking to her frequently for the past year or so and she had been telling us the market was dead - nothing moving. The last couple of times we talked to her, she had several closings coming up and was much relieved that at least some homes were beginning to move. However, there are still thousands of homes for sale....it's going to be a long haul.

It's about price. People need to perceive that they're getting a good DEAL, AND, they have to be able to afford the mortgage with a standard fixed interest rate. What is probably choking sales more than even prices, are tighter lending standards.
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Old 07-12-2008, 10:28 AM
 
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I think the turn is five to eight years out. Prices went ape and ordinary middle-of-the-road people are priced out in many places. Kicking and screaming, prices will have to come down to where an average house is affordable by an average buyer without spending their whole paycheck on just the house and related expenses.
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Old 07-13-2008, 07:37 AM
 
1,234 posts, read 1,064,434 times
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Default Serious Buyers

I feel that if you are a serious buyer you should take the necessary time to research your market. Do the homework. Follow every new listing if possible.

In this area (Pasco) most of the "Cheap" homes are usually under contract within a day or so. And yes, as one poster noted, there really are cash buyers bidding and buying. (tho I disagree with the reference to Vultures). That would only make sense as people like to make money, and who is to begrudge them. Be that as it may, they are buying in a very unstable marketplace and most probably plan to keep the homes for a while.

Most all REO and short sales that I have seen have been for all cash only sales. It is the banks that are requiring this. They are pricing Reo's to get out of them and to raise liquidity. That makes it much more difficult for the average family needing financing to purchase that type of bargain. Surely that comes as no surprise. Topping that off with the fact that trying to get a mortgage today just became very difficult should give some indication as to how healthy a market this really is. Not very.


If you need a place to live, factor that in. Compare the cost of rentals VS buying. If you can purchase for below replacement cost, or for below historical lows, than you probably will do OK to buy... If you can afford it. Just be prepared to keep the home for 7-10 years.

I see a bottom firming in about 2 more years. Then I see prices starting to climb back up to replacement over the next 5-8 years...IF within the next 2 years sellers come into the market with prices near the current REO sales and short sales prices, and IF the Fed. does not bail out the banks and homeowners.

Many homes are for sale today. I believe that many more sellers are waiting to sell as they know that it is a waste of time to ask for their price. Put simply, people overpaid and got burned Big Time. Most cannot afford to sell at a loss which would probably be the case if they try to unload today. They paid too much in an over hyped market.

I blame none of todays buyers for choosing to wait for prices to drop. That is common sense and not greed. I think the greed was that some of yesterdays buyers thought that a mortgage was a piece of paper that they could choose to wipe their butts with. Too many of them had no intention to ever repay that money and gambled (and lost) that prices would continue to escalate. They would then profit from their brilliant investing skills... OOPS!

Well here we are now. Wait to purchase if you can, buy if you must, sell if you have to, and pay off your mortgages if you can. Nicest thing about a home investment is that you can actually find a very good use for it. You can live there. Try that on Wall St.

Besides, it is not a homes value that really changes, it is the crap paper that our government and banks were busy printing that is... Relatively speaking.
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Old 07-13-2008, 08:24 AM
 
Location: Hernando County, FL
8,488 posts, read 17,944,914 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oldtimer2 View Post
I feel that if you are a serious buyer you should take the necessary time to research your market. Do the homework. Follow every new listing if possible.

In this area (Pasco) most of the "Cheap" homes are usually under contract within a day or so. And yes, as one poster noted, there really are cash buyers bidding and buying. (tho I disagree with the reference to Vultures). That would only make sense as people like to make money, and who is to begrudge them. Be that as it may, they are buying in a very unstable marketplace and most probably plan to keep the homes for a while.

Most all REO and short sales that I have seen have been for all cash only sales. It is the banks that are requiring this. They are pricing Reo's to get out of them and to raise liquidity. That makes it much more difficult for the average family needing financing to purchase that type of bargain. Surely that comes as no surprise. Topping that off with the fact that trying to get a mortgage today just became very difficult should give some indication as to how healthy a market this really is. Not very.


If you need a place to live, factor that in. Compare the cost of rentals VS buying. If you can purchase for below replacement cost, or for below historical lows, than you probably will do OK to buy... If you can afford it. Just be prepared to keep the home for 7-10 years.

I see a bottom firming in about 2 more years. Then I see prices starting to climb back up to replacement over the next 5-8 years...IF within the next 2 years sellers come into the market with prices near the current REO sales and short sales prices, and IF the Fed. does not bail out the banks and homeowners.

Many homes are for sale today. I believe that many more sellers are waiting to sell as they know that it is a waste of time to ask for their price. Put simply, people overpaid and got burned Big Time. Most cannot afford to sell at a loss which would probably be the case if they try to unload today. They paid too much in an over hyped market.

I blame none of todays buyers for choosing to wait for prices to drop. That is common sense and not greed. I think the greed was that some of yesterdays buyers thought that a mortgage was a piece of paper that they could choose to wipe their butts with. Too many of them had no intention to ever repay that money and gambled (and lost) that prices would continue to escalate. They would then profit from their brilliant investing skills... OOPS!

Well here we are now. Wait to purchase if you can, buy if you must, sell if you have to, and pay off your mortgages if you can. Nicest thing about a home investment is that you can actually find a very good use for it. You can live there. Try that on Wall St.

Besides, it is not a homes value that really changes, it is the crap paper that our government and banks were busy printing that is... Relatively speaking.
I just closed a foreclosure with an FHA loan 3 weeks ago and I have another one closing with a conventional loan in 11 days so the thought that you can't get an REO or Short Sale with a loan is just not true.

The FHA loan was 3% down which we got the seller to pay in addition to $6000 towards closing costs.

The banks that own these homes look at the net when all is said and done. Yes, if the offers are close in price and one is cash and one financing they may choose a lower cash offer but not always.

As far as the bottom, each area is distinctly different. I know my county has been right around the same median for 9-10 months now and the inventory has been creeping down.
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Old 07-13-2008, 12:42 PM
 
1,234 posts, read 1,064,434 times
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True enough Mike P.

As hinted at, my advice to buyers is to do their homework. Every area has it's quirks, but the generalities remain similar.

I do know of a few REO homes here that sold via financing. It does happen. They just were not the cheapest teepee's in the hood. Unless of course you have an inside track or are a friend of the banks.... Friends of Mozillo for instance.

This makes it hard for the average household to "Get a Bargain" so to speak. At least the best or most discounted cut rate bargains. Even then tho, best deal should include the area and condition of the actual property, and not just the price..

. As you correctly allude too, when push comes to shove price wise, the banks take the guaranteed cash money. Why would they gamble on financing that may fail? Simply put, they do not.... Not to say that there are not still good bargains to be had if you do your homework and stay vigilant,... both cash deals, and some financed deals.

Shop hard and shop well..... As one should always do if they seek a great deal in any market.
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Old 07-13-2008, 01:40 PM
 
85 posts, read 181,631 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gypsychic View Post
Some areas are recovering.
what areas are recovering?

Am the only person who watches the news?

Economy is about to take a major dump, and people think its already "recovering"

am I the only person who thinks Florida real estate prices are going to be dropping for next 3-5 years?
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