[sunrico90]

Found this interesting:

That's because the highly anticipated "real estate bubble" that began deflating in mid-2005 has been losing air for the past year and a half, and may finally be out of air. And while some markets suffered through some deep slumps, forecasters are now predicting the worst may be over.

"Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom," he says.

The primary problem now plaguing the housing market is one of oversupply, rather than a general economic malaise. In general, the markets that are suffering the most now are the ones that benefited the most during the run-up in prices.

One way economists rate homes sales is by calculating how many months it would take to sell all the homes listed for sale at the current buying rate. At last count, Lereah says it looked like there were between 6.8 months' and 7 months' worth of homes sitting on the market right now. He says that number will likely fall to between 6.6 months' and 6.5 months' worth by year's end. But that is still above the 5.5- to 6-month inventory that signals a balanced market.

[ylisa7]

Unfortunately the "economists" are not taking into account the affordability factor. We invest in one area of Fl and 94 homes out of @180 homes are over $500,000. plus very high insurance and property taxes.

How many people do you know that can afford that kind of home without creative financing(which is no longer available)?

[macguy]

Originally Posted by younglisa7

Unfortunately the "economists" are not taking into account the affordability factor. We invest in one area of Fl and 94 homes out of @180 homes are over $500,000. plus very high insurance and property taxes.

How many people do you know that can afford that kind of home without creative financing(which is no longer available)?

A lot of people can afford them and you are not supposed to be looking at $500,000 homes if you can't afford it.

[jbravo]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Found this interesting:

"Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom," he says.

One way economists rate homes sales is by calculating how many months it would take to sell all the homes listed for sale at the current buying rate. At last count, Lereah says it looked like there were between 6.8 months' and 7 months' worth of homes sitting on the market right now. He says that number will likely fall to between 6.6 months' and 6.5 months' worth by year's end. But that is still above the 5.5- to 6-month inventory that signals a balanced market.

Are you for real?
The inventory in Orlando is 15 months +
Miami is 24 months +

The paid "expert" you quote has called "bottom" FOUR, repeat, 4 (FOUR) times in last 12 months! Lereah is a running joke amongst investors.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Found this interesting:

That's because the highly anticipated "real estate bubble" that began deflating in mid-2005 has been losing air for the past year and a half, and may finally be out of air. And while some markets suffered through some deep slumps, forecasters are now predicting the worst may be over.

"Sales have hovered for the last four months, scratching bottom and then coming up, scratching bottom and coming up again. We are comfortable this is now the bottom," he says.

The primary problem now plaguing the housing market is one of oversupply, rather than a general economic malaise. In general, the markets that are suffering the most now are the ones that benefited the most during the run-up in prices.

One way economists rate homes sales is by calculating how many months it would take to sell all the homes listed for sale at the current buying rate. At last count, Lereah says it looked like there were between 6.8 months' and 7 months' worth of homes sitting on the market right now. He says that number will likely fall to between 6.6 months' and 6.5 months' worth by year's end. But that is still above the 5.5- to 6-month inventory that signals a balanced market.

David Lereah works for the NAR and has been WRONG each time he makes a statment. If you like I can post two years worth of Lereahcrap. This my friend is his last chance power drive to sell all the Florida investments he got stuck with. This is the oldest trick in the book (create the illusion of urgency ) I dont know any person in real estate who thinks this guy has a clue. But if you want some real facts. New Century Financial Corp., the nation’s second-biggest subprime lender, said yesterday that it doesn’t have the cash to pay creditors who are demanding their money, increasing speculation that the company will go bankrupt.

This could lead to a Federal Bailout.

“The Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency took little action in public to police the $2.8 trillion boom in the U.S. mortgage market, whose bust now risks worsening the housing recession.”

“The Fed, which is responsible for the stability of the banking system, didn’t publicly rebuke any firm for failing to follow up warnings on home-lending practices between 2004 and 2006. The OCC, which supervises 1,793 national banks, took only three public mortgage-related consumer-protection enforcement actions over the same period.”

[tallrick]

It's just propaganda. They know that most Americans (and illegals) have no idea of the extent of the bubble. Make them think all is well and they will buy again. The only way to keep inflating the bubble will be to eliminate property taxes. This isn't happening so expect the bottom to be years away. Thank goodness New century is in trouble, I hope the rest fall otherwise.

[wacahootaman]

Plus a tidal wave of forclosures is coming and that will further drive down home prices. If the economy tanks and interest rates go up it will get far worse.

I would estimate the bottom is a year out and once there it will stay down for a long time if past housing busts are any indication.

The inventory stats dont take into consideration those sellers who are discouraged and pulled their houses off the market. If sales pick up all these sellers will enter the market again and overwhelm the new demand.

The one positive as I see is that demand will grow and get pent up and once the attitudes change the buyers will be back in force. However, many then who want to buy may not be able even at a lower price because credit standards will be much tighter.

[KAINTUCK]

I moved to Florida 19 months ago. About two and half years ago I purchased a small house on golf course in Northern Florida. I beat the clock for the most part and purchased at a good price. I purchased at $155,ooo, put twenty into it and it just appraised for $250. Of course I know I can likely only hope for maybe $225-$235. Why am I even yet optimistic? Because it is in the range of lots of wallets. Conversely, the higher the sale price the worse the bottom will be for that property. I have completed considerable research using publicly available statistics. The market went up around 18% in 2003-2004 and around 20% 2004-2005. For 2006 sales are down by around 30%. For house resales prices are down on average 18%. For condo resales the market prices are down avg. 10%. These are actual statistics, that to my knowledge, though readily available, no one is printing. A little speculative analysis should indicate to us all that the market will have to come down another 20% before we are back to normal. The problem with that is the neighbors still want as much as the lucky neighbor that sold out and bought a spread in Ky. The ship has left the harbor and when it comes back it will be a raft on calm waters. If you do your research, readily available information ,you will learn that the condo market was never for real and only a few, uninformed, out of staters set the market per complex. Hardly enough of an overall percentage to set a market. If you want to sell go ahead and sell and quit paying interest because you will just lose that much more. If you think you are going to get $599 for that 1300 sq.ft. ocean view, I have a bridge in Nevada I want to sell you. Just as surely as unrealistic prices were set by a few uninformed buyers, the prices will be reset by a few sales that are a result of need by virtue of attrition, attrition being loosely defined. The sellers that realize this first will get hurt the least. Check the local newspaper for foreclosures and you will find upscale houses that are not typically there. This is the tip of the investor foopah croud. The only optimists left in the croud are those that have something to sell or otherwise something to gain. Look for a good buying start beginning to trickle in by the normal up market in May. When expectations are not met the heat will be on by the down cycle beginning in November. If you are patient you will begin to get real buys by March of 2008. By then the market will have receded another 20% off of todays market. That is the optimistic view...the clouds are forming and the ball is growing dark...I must rest.

[TriMT7]

Originally Posted by KAINTUCK

If you think you are going to get $599 for that 1300 sq.ft. ocean view, I have a bridge in Nevada I want to sell you.

Actually, there IS that big bridge being built over the Hoover Dam from Nevada to Arizona.....

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by tallrick

It's just propaganda. They know that most Americans (and illegals) have no idea of the extent of the bubble. Make them think all is well and they will buy again. The only way to keep inflating the bubble will be to eliminate property taxes. This isn't happening so expect the bottom to be years away. Thank goodness New century is in trouble, I hope the rest fall otherwise.

I agree with you and others. Anything to sell houses. I dont buy into this and I believe prices will drop alot in overpriced cities.