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Old 11-25-2008, 03:54 PM
 
710 posts, read 1,988,342 times
Reputation: 246

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Depression Pete View Post
A Recession is when you hear your neighbor was laid off and out of work!
A Depression is when YOU are out of Work!
EXACTLY!!!

I'm seeing this mess, and it's aftermath, as an extension of the have and have not society America has become.

This WILL affect everybody, of course, but I still see people getting jobs, buying houses and living life. If you are an assistant manager at Circuit City, unskilled construction worker, office worker or sales person? Yeah, you're probably screwed for awhile.
You have real and tangible skills, experience and a willingness to be flexible (and some savings to hold you over for a few extra months), you'll probably be fine.

OF COURSE there are exceptions, but I think those that are smart and already have some capital and experience can usually afford to wait out the lull even if they do lose their jobs.

I mean, how many of us, reading this right now, have jobs and feel moderately safe but are postponing a vacation, car purchase, etc. I know we are. I know my parents are. I know my "rich" brother-in-law is.
My "poor" b-i-l ... he just got layed off.

Kind of the way it's going right now -- it's a depression for him for sure, for the rest of us, it's a recession.

Last edited by planetsurf; 11-25-2008 at 04:12 PM..
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Old 11-26-2008, 08:04 AM
 
Location: America
6,985 posts, read 15,463,959 times
Reputation: 2067
Quote:
Originally Posted by planetsurf View Post
EXACTLY!!!

I'm seeing this mess, and it's aftermath, as an extension of the have and have not society America has become.

This WILL affect everybody, of course, but I still see people getting jobs, buying houses and living life. If you are an assistant manager at Circuit City, unskilled construction worker, office worker or sales person? Yeah, you're probably screwed for awhile.
You have real and tangible skills, experience and a willingness to be flexible (and some savings to hold you over for a few extra months), you'll probably be fine.

OF COURSE there are exceptions, but I think those that are smart and already have some capital and experience can usually afford to wait out the lull even if they do lose their jobs.

I mean, how many of us, reading this right now, have jobs and feel moderately safe but are postponing a vacation, car purchase, etc. I know we are. I know my parents are. I know my "rich" brother-in-law is.
My "poor" b-i-l ... he just got layed off.

Kind of the way it's going right now -- it's a depression for him for sure, for the rest of us, it's a recession.
There is all sorts of wrong in this post.

1. Housing has seen the highest drop in prices EVER.
2. Banking industry is imploding
3. the U.S. economy is done
4. stores are closing up by the dozens
5. Unemployment is high and climbing

If you think this is business as usual or that savings for a "few months" will save the day for people losing jobs then your sadly mistaken. You should really look into how long people are waiting between jobs. It is a heck of a lot longer than a few months and that's regardless of skilled or unskilled. Jobs are being cut and hiring freezes are on. Few jobs are out there my friend.

As for that quote of what a recession or depression is, its way off the mark from reality. People should educate themselves on economics before making such statements.
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Old 11-26-2008, 09:13 AM
 
3,283 posts, read 4,664,867 times
Reputation: 753
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
There is all sorts of wrong in this post.

1. Housing has seen the highest drop in prices EVER.
2. Banking industry is imploding
3. the U.S. economy is done
4. stores are closing up by the dozens
5. Unemployment is high and climbing

If you think this is business as usual or that savings for a "few months" will save the day for people losing jobs then your sadly mistaken. You should really look into how long people are waiting between jobs. It is a heck of a lot longer than a few months and that's regardless of skilled or unskilled. Jobs are being cut and hiring freezes are on. Few jobs are out there my friend.

As for that quote of what a recession or depression is, its way off the mark from reality. People should educate themselves on economics before making such statements.

a depression is loosely defined as a prolonged recession. there are no strict definitions
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Old 11-26-2008, 09:35 AM
 
Location: Exit 14C
1,555 posts, read 3,714,087 times
Reputation: 395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
Few jobs are out there my friend.
Just curious if anyone has studied how advertising for job openings may have changed in the past year or so. I glance at openings and haven't noticed much difference over a couple years ago even, but I just look at them casually. Unless we're thinking that maybe job openings are advertised that aren't really job openings (I can't offhand think of reasons for that though), that seems like at least as good of an indicator as anything else.

I received unemployment at one point in the past, and I've known other people who did, too, and we milked it for all it was worth. In that situation, it wasn't that we couldn't have obtained jobs.
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Old 11-26-2008, 09:44 AM
 
Location: America
6,985 posts, read 15,463,959 times
Reputation: 2067
Quote:
Originally Posted by 58robbo View Post
a depression is loosely defined as a prolonged recession. there are no strict definitions
there are fundamental definitions for recessions and depressions which all economist agree on. The ones being thrown around here by the people address are not among those definitions. Making up meanings of words based on extreme lack of understanding for economics isn't going to cut it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tungsten_Udder View Post
Just curious if anyone has studied how advertising for job openings may have changed in the past year or so. I glance at openings and haven't noticed much difference over a couple years ago even, but I just look at them casually. Unless we're thinking that maybe job openings are advertised that aren't really job openings (I can't offhand think of reasons for that though), that seems like at least as good of an indicator as anything else.

I received unemployment at one point in the past, and I've known other people who did, too, and we milked it for all it was worth. In that situation, it wasn't that we couldn't have obtained jobs.
you lost me in your post. However just look up job statistics, how many jobs available, new jobs created and job loses. Government tracks that information.
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Old 11-26-2008, 10:10 AM
 
Location: Exit 14C
1,555 posts, read 3,714,087 times
Reputation: 395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
you lost me in your post. However just look up job statistics, how many jobs available, new jobs created and job loses. Government tracks that information.
Yeah, I'm not sure how they calculate jobs created though--they track new hires by the tax paperwork filed, but if someone lost a job at the same time, does that count as a "job created" or not? Meanwhile, a lot of people on unemployment aren't really trying to find a job (as I mentioned above), so that doesn't necessarily give anyone an accurate indication of how difficult it is to find work. Not to mention all the jobs that are NOT in the government statistics, because folks aren't reporting them for tax purposes.

Presumably, all the advertised openings at companies are jobs that are available, no?

So I was wondering if anyone was tracking the advertisements. If they haven't decreased, then that's one indication that there aren't less opportunities now than there were, unless we have some other reasons that the advertised openings aren't really openings.

Of course, most job openings or potential openings aren't advertised, and there's no way to track that.
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Old 11-26-2008, 10:21 AM
 
Location: America
6,985 posts, read 15,463,959 times
Reputation: 2067
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tungsten_Udder View Post
Yeah, I'm not sure how they calculate jobs created though--they track new hires by the tax paperwork filed, but if someone lost a job at the same time, does that count as a "job created" or not? Meanwhile, a lot of people on unemployment aren't really trying to find a job (as I mentioned above), so that doesn't necessarily give anyone an accurate indication of how difficult it is to find work. Not to mention all the jobs that are NOT in the government statistics, because folks aren't reporting them for tax purposes.

Presumably, all the advertised openings at companies are jobs that are available, no?

So I was wondering if anyone was tracking the advertisements. If they haven't decreased, then that's one indication that there aren't less opportunities now than there were, unless we have some other reasons that the advertised openings aren't really openings.

Of course, most job openings or potential openings aren't advertised, and there's no way to track that.
I don't think your anecdote about how you conducted yourself during the time you were unemployed really accounts for much as far as if people are looking for work or not while unemployed. Unless you were living at home with your parents I don't see how the money you received from unemployment was enough to cover your living expenses. This holds true for anyone on unemployment with rent or house note to pay. Never mind if they have kids and a host of other factors.

Also, where are you getting the "most job openings" aren't advertised bit?
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Old 11-26-2008, 11:15 AM
 
710 posts, read 1,988,342 times
Reputation: 246
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
There is all sorts of wrong in this post.

1. Housing has seen the highest drop in prices EVER.
2. Banking industry is imploding
3. the U.S. economy is done
4. stores are closing up by the dozens
5. Unemployment is high and climbing

If you think this is business as usual or that savings for a "few months" will save the day for people losing jobs then your sadly mistaken. You should really look into how long people are waiting between jobs. It is a heck of a lot longer than a few months and that's regardless of skilled or unskilled. Jobs are being cut and hiring freezes are on. Few jobs are out there my friend.

As for that quote of what a recession or depression is, its way off the mark from reality. People should educate themselves on economics before making such statements.
That quote, and my point is that the situation is local TO YOU. WE have jobs and we're doing fine. Most people I know are in the same boat -- stock portfolios are depressing, but I don't have to sell! In fact we've been continuing to contribute to our 401k through all this.

As I said, some/many people are REALLY REALLY struggling, and for them it's a "depression" (no matter what the "official" definition is). I know a few people who got laid-off last summer who were NOT prepared, in REALLY bad shape and still looking, but most of the folks who were threatened with lay-off were immediately re-absorbed into the company in other divisions. And I also know 2 other people who just got ~6 figure jobs ... 1 in San Diego after 1 year of searching. He starts Dec 1 - it's not a depression for him anymore. (His wife was working all that time anyway.) (The other here in Miami after just a few months off.)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
1. Housing has seen the highest drop in prices EVER.
After the highest run-up ever.
I could care less if my house is worth 40 or 50% less than the height of the bubble, it just doesn't affect me. In 15 years when I plan on selling, THEN it matters. I could care less if Linens & Things or Circuit City closes. Well, of course I care, people out of work affects everyone and it's sad for them. But it just doesn't affect me on a day to day basis.

When the dust settles a little, and we get some better clarity about where we stand, there will be TONS of money heading back into the economy, ours among them (for a car).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
3. the U.S. economy is done
Uhh, yeah, right. Making your money short selling lately or are you moving to Australia?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
If you think this is business as usual or that savings for a "few months" will save the day for people losing jobs then your sadly mistaken.
I didn't say either -- I said a few EXTRA months savings. You should have 6 months already, right?

I'm not trying to argue that this isn't a mess and we are all really just fine, some people and companies are truly screwed. But from what I SEE, I think things are not quite as bad as some people are making out; just as the optimism got out-of-hand during the bubble periods, pessimism gets out of hand now. People ARE continuing to fly for Thanksgiving (yet down 10%), cellphones ARE selling (but less than last year), people ARE buying homes (but at a lower $$). In my wife's company, inventories that were REALLY lowered Sept-Nov are now needing to be replenished because WIDGETS ARE SELLING! Not great, not as good as last year, but the sky hasn't fallen quite yet.

We're in a mess, but we're hardly "done." When we get out of this, how the government handles paying off all this debt will be much more important to me than the immediate liquidity issue problems.

Last edited by planetsurf; 11-26-2008 at 12:26 PM..
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Old 11-26-2008, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Exit 14C
1,555 posts, read 3,714,087 times
Reputation: 395
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wild Style View Post
I don't think your anecdote about how you conducted yourself during the time you were unemployed really accounts for much as far as if people are looking for work or not while unemployed. Unless you were living at home with your parents I don't see how the money you received from unemployment was enough to cover your living expenses. This holds true for anyone on unemployment with rent or house note to pay. Never mind if they have kids and a host of other factors.
And I do not think that an unsubstantiated claim that for most households, if one person goes on unemployment, then they're in danger of not being able to pay their bills is worth much either. I'm sure there are some people like that. I have no reason to believe that it's most households. And no, I was not living at my parents' home at that time, and neither were any of the other people I'm thinking of.
Quote:
Also, where are you getting the "most job openings" aren't advertised bit?
From research about how people found their jobs. I couldn't quickly find the academic journal articles I was thinking of (although you couldn't check them out anyway unless you have access to an academic journal database), but here are a few sites that state this (which are not sites trying to sell a hidden job market service).

Stanford University:
Job-hunting students run into recession

The Georgia Department of Labor site: Chapter 9 - Networking | Re-Place Yourself | Job Seekers | Georgia Department of Labor (http://www.dol.state.ga.us/js/replace/chapter09.htm - broken link)

The University of St. Thomas:
Guidelines for Job Search Correspondence
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Old 11-26-2008, 01:08 PM
 
Location: America
6,985 posts, read 15,463,959 times
Reputation: 2067
Quote:
Originally Posted by planetsurf View Post
That quote, and my point is that the situation is local TO YOU. WE have jobs and we're doing fine. Most people I know are in the same boat -- stock portfolios are depressing, but I don't have to sell! In fact we've been continuing to contribute to our 401k through all this.

As I said, some/many people are REALLY REALLY struggling, and for them it's a "depression" (no matter what the "official" definition is). I know a few people who got laid-off last summer who were NOT prepared, in REALLY bad shape and still looking, but most of the folks who were threatened with lay-off were immediately re-absorbed into the company in other divisions. And I also know 2 other people who just got ~6 figure jobs ... 1 in San Diego after 1 year of searching. He starts Dec 1 - it's not a depression for him anymore. (His wife was working all that time anyway.) (The other here in Miami after just a few months off.)


After the highest run-up ever.
I could care less if my house is worth 40 or 50% less than the height of the bubble, it just doesn't affect me. In 15 years when I plan on selling, THEN it matters. I could care less if Linens & Things or Circuit City closes. Well, of course I care, people out of work affects everyone and it's sad for them. But it just doesn't affect me on a day to day basis.

When the dust settles a little, and we get some better clarity about where we stand, there will be TONS of money heading back into the economy, ours among them (for a car).


Uhh, yeah, right. Making your money short selling lately or are you moving to Australia?


I didn't say either -- I said a few EXTRA months savings. You should have 6 months already, right?

I'm not trying to argue that this isn't a mess and we are all really just fine, some people and companies are truly screwed. But from what I SEE, I think things are not quite as bad as some people are making out; just as the optimism got out-of-hand during the bubble periods, pessimism gets out of hand now. People ARE continuing to fly for Thanksgiving (yet down 10%), cellphones ARE selling (but less than last year), people ARE buying homes (but at a lower $$). In my wife's company, inventories that were REALLY lowered Sept-Nov are now needing to be replenished because WIDGETS ARE SELLING! Not great, not as good as last year, but the sky hasn't fallen quite yet.

We're in a mess, but we're hardly "done." When we get out of this, how the government handles paying off all this debt will be much more important to me than the immediate liquidity issue problems.
The problem is you don't seem to understand economics or what is going on.

Fact America has had a fully Fiat money system since 1971. Fact that has been driven through debt both via money supply growth as well as through driving the economy (consumer consumption). Fact, most Americans are over leveraged. Fact, most can no longer afford to borrow to spend. That means the economy comes to a halt (as we are seeing now). I can go on and on to explain this situation but I wont. I suggest you research economics a little deeper. To think because you and a few friends are doing fine so that means the American economy is not in as bad a shape as many are saying is sort of absurd. You need to acquaint yourself with the fundamentals of banking systems, monetary systems and economic systems. then you need to look at the fundamental health or lack of in the American economy. Then I think you will "get it". you should also look up what a fire economy is and whats happening to it presently. When you finally realize whats going on, you will then hopefully understand this is not business as usual

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tungsten_Udder View Post
And I do not think that an unsubstantiated claim that for most households, if one person goes on unemployment, then they're in danger of not being able to pay their bills is worth much either. I'm sure there are some people like that. I have no reason to believe that it's most households. And no, I was not living at my parents' home at that time, and neither were any of the other people I'm thinking of. From research about how people found their jobs. I couldn't quickly find the academic journal articles I was thinking of (although you couldn't check them out anyway unless you have access to an academic journal database), but here are a few sites that state this (which are not sites trying to sell a hidden job market service).

Stanford University:
Job-hunting students run into recession errr this is from 1992

The Georgia Department of Labor site: Chapter 9 - Networking | Re-Place Yourself | Job Seekers | Georgia Department of Labor (http://www.dol.state.ga.us/js/replace/chapter09.htm - broken link) You should have read this a bit more in depth. One part says "In large part, the problem is due to the fact that 85% of all job openings are never advertised or listed with employment agencies". Most if not all advertisement agencies post up job listings online. I have a feeling this article is old too. If you look at the last paragraph about using the internet to find jobs, this also speaks volumes.

The University of St. Thomas:
Guidelines for Job Search Correspondence << this one doesn't seem to address what your talking about
I posted my answers in bold above. Also to your unemployment benefits claim. Again, when you take into account that unemployment gives you what, 1/4 of what you were making before, I just don't see how its possible to make ends meet on that. Again unless you are living with parents or spouse/partner makes enough to float the bills.

Also if you have any journals, and if I can get them through lexus nexus please feel free to post it up. I have access to that.

Last edited by Wild Style; 11-26-2008 at 01:21 PM..
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