[planetsurf]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

The problem is you don't seem to understand economics or what is going on.

Fact America has had a fully Fiat money system since 1971. Fact that has been driven through debt both via money supply growth as well as through driving the economy (consumer consumption). Fact, most Americans are over leveraged. Fact, most can no longer afford to borrow to spend. That means the economy comes to a halt (as we are seeing now). I can go on and on to explain this situation but I wont. I suggest you research economics a little deeper. To think because you and a few friends are doing fine so that means the American economy is not in as bad a shape as many are saying is sort of absurd. You need to acquaint yourself with the fundamentals of banking systems, monetary systems and economic systems. then you need to look at the fundamental health or lack of in the American economy. Then I think you will "get it". you should also look up what a fire economy is and whats happening to it presently. When you finally realize whats going on, you will then hopefully understand this is not business as usual

Thank you Professor Full O. Himself, but I understand EXACTLY what is going on even if I don't come to the same conclusions as you. You keep wanting to put words in my mouth, I NEVER said things were good everywhere, or it's "business as usual." Even FIRE economies like we rely on so much in the US don't "come to a halt," they expand, contract or stay the same. This doesn't change one bit if our currency is based on a physical commodity or a creditor.

If people or companies are overleveraged, they need to get out from under that, right? Do they stop buying food, cloths, gas? Does the world stop because they are in debt? No, of course not. They lay low and pay-off their debt, slow-down capital expenditures and/or R&D, lower inventory or stop using their house as an ATM. As a result, some companies close, some people get layed-off. If anything companies/familes need to make MORE money. Business don't want to stop, but many can't continue without capital, right? Fix THAT problem and a lot of this starts to slide away easier.

MOST people still have jobs and will continue to pay taxes, buy food, cellphones, cloths and a "little something extra." We should ALL learn the lessons and live in our means OF COURSE. And our ecomomy is/will contract further OF COURSE. But are you betting on 25% unemployment like 1933? I'm not.
Some folks that aren't willing to compromise will get left in the dust, some jobs won't come back, good-bye to many illegal immigrants (no work), some companies are done. Most others are doing just fine thank you, even if they are contracting some or have less to spend.

If you think the sky is falling and EVERYTHING and EVERYONE is "screwed," then great, good for you. Costco hasn't gone under yet, you can pick up your burlap bags of rice & beans there.
I don't, I see a way out of this mess and I see glimpses of it already.

My worries lie more with paying off this debt AFTER enough cash is infused into the system and things stabilize. We will still be in a precarious situation then, holding greater national debt and still nervous investors.
Will we have TRULY learned the lessons about living in our means, will Wall Street be ok with some regulation and without millions in bonuses to middle managers, will GM learn that hubris doesn't sell cars? That's the greater challange TO ME.

You don't have to agree. Good luck.

[Tungsten_Udder]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

errr this is from 1992

So you'd say that in 1992, 80% of the job market was not advertised, but in 2008, that's no longer the case? What is the basis of that claim, and why is it that you believe that they didn't advertise in 1992 but would now? Was it difficult to advertise job openings in 1992?

You should have read this a bit more in depth. One part says "In large part, the problem is due to the fact that 85% of all job openings are never advertised or listed with employment agencies". Most if not all advertisement agencies post up job listings online. I have a feeling this article is old too. If you look at the last paragraph about using the internet to find jobs, this also speaks volumes.

You forgot to note, first off, that that one wasn't from 1992. I guess they're just wrong or something?

Also, let's look at what you're saying more closely instead. "Most if not all advertisement agencies . . ." (advertisement agencies?? I'm taking it that was a typo for employment agencies) " . . . post up job listings online." Let's assume that is true. How would that be related to the fact that 85% of all job openings are never advertised OR listed with employment agencies? Are you somehow figuring that if the job isn't listed with an employment agency, then it's going to be posted by the employment agency it wasn't listed with online? Or--Say what??

For the last one, which also wasn't from 1992, but 2007, it contained this statement: "Approximately 2/3 of jobs and internships are never advertised and are filled through networking, cold-calling and other direct contact". So it looks like you should have read more "in depth" there.

Also to your unemployment benefits claim. Again, when you take into account that unemployment gives you what, 1/4 of what you were making before

You're not even bothering to do the slightest bit of research on that. You can get up to 50% of your previous wages, but there are caps. The amount of the cap depends on whether you have an employed spouse and whether you have dependents.

But you're claiming that most folks basically live close to their limits--so that at the rate they were earning, they barely had any money left over at the end of the month. While it may very well be true that a majority of people live that way, it's certainly not a claim I would accept simply on intuition. It would need some empirical evidence. Certainly many people do not do that--and I know that because I also do not do that (a habit I developed probably because I've done so much part time and freelance work in my life), and I know a number of other people who do not.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by planetsurf

Thank you Professor Full O. Himself, but I understand EXACTLY what is going on even if I don't come to the same conclusions as you. You keep wanting to put words in my mouth, I NEVER said things were good everywhere, or it's "business as usual." Even FIRE economies like we rely on so much in the US don't "come to a halt," they expand, contract or stay the same. This doesn't change one bit if our currency is based on a physical commodity or a creditor.

If people or companies are over leveraged, they need to get out from under that, right? Do they stop buying food, cloths, gas? Does the world stop because they are in debt? No, of course not. They lay low and pay-off their debt, slow-down capital expenditures and/or R&D, lower inventory or stop using their house as an ATM. As a result, some companies close, some people get laied-off. If anything companies/families need to make MORE money. Business don't want to stop, but many can't continue without capital, right? Fix THAT problem and a lot of this starts to slide away easier.

MOST people still have jobs and will continue to pay taxes, buy food, cellphones, cloths and a "little something extra." We should ALL learn the lessons and live in our means OF COURSE. And our ecomomy is/will contract further OF COURSE. But are you betting on 25% unemployment like 1933? I'm not.
Some folks that aren't willing to compromise will get left in the dust, some jobs won't come back, good-bye to many illegal immigrants (no work), some companies are done. Most others are doing just fine thank you, even if they are contracting some or have less to spend.

If you think the sky is falling and EVERYTHING and EVERYONE is "screwed," then great, good for you. Costco hasn't gone under yet, you can pick up your burlap bags of rice & beans there.
I don't, I see a way out of this mess and I see glimpses of it already.

My worries lie more with paying off this debt AFTER enough cash is infused into the system and things stabilize. We will still be in a precarious situation then, holding greater national debt and still nervous investors.
Will we have TRULY learned the lessons about living in our means, will Wall Street be ok with some regulation and without millions in bonuses to middle managers, will GM learn that hubris doesn't sell cars? That's the greater challange TO ME.

You don't have to agree. Good luck.

Professor, no, not me. I do have a degree in International Econ which is what I base my findings on. Well that and tons of research. Anyway, I think you misunderstand the implications of my statements. I did not mean to say that the outcome of what will happen to our present economic system is reliant on fiat money or that fiat money will somehow hurt it. My point was, these are compound problems, F.I.R.E. economy (unsustainable) with an equally unsustainable monetary system spells very bad things for our country. See, I don’t care if you are company, a government or an individual. If you make X amount of dollars with Y amount left over after expenditures this will dictate how much you could possibly borrow and then payback at some later date. However, when those debts far outstrip your income then guess what? You’re screwed and that’s when default comes into play. With governments they can do other things to try and get out of it like increasing the money supply which in turn debases the currency and so on and so on. Then you get into issues with inflation or possible hyper inflation. You also get into how that affects your ability to borrow money and in our case even our status as a reserve currency. As for how metal based currency versus fiat money plays into this. Well in the first place if metal based currency is strictly adhered to then the prospects of a country becoming over leveraged is severely hampered. But then this would also bring into affect TRUE deflation in cases like the ones we are in now. Now to address your assertion that an economic model like the F.I.R.E. economy we have either expands, contracts or stays the same. This is utterly untrue. Economies can also collapse, cease to exist and then transform themselves into something else. I won’t get into specific details other than to say research Argentina, Japan in the 90s, USSR, Zimbabwe and the list goes on. Tons of economic models change themselves after they fail. Heck that is what happened when we stopped relying on production and saving and went to a consumption and Finance, Insurance and Real Estate based system. Which I should say is not an old model for us. This F.I.R.E. economy was born in the 70s. Same way once the F.I.R.E. economy finally dies we will see our new one spring up.

As for what happens when people, companies, governments become over leveraged? Well that depends on how much income they can produce to pay down those debts. In some cases the level of debt far outweighs the level of income even after cutting back on expenditures and then those entities default on their debts. This holds true regardless of it being a person, company or government. In the cases of people and companies that means going out of business/bankruptcy. In the cases of governments, well again just research what happened to Argentina. As far as providing capital to solve the problem, well it’s not that simple. If it were these bailouts would have fixed the financial system but it hasn’t. I will leave you to research that bit.

As far as people still buying things i.e. cell phones and the like. This is also incorrect, just turn your TV on or go to Bloomberg.com or wsj.com to see what monthly sales are like right now. People are not spending, in most cases people are over leveraged and cannot spend like they have in the past. Credit is dried up so they cannot spend beyond their means like they once did. That day is over. Companies will go out of business but not because of this capital reason you stated. The problem is, when these businesses were created, they based future earnings based on available consumer credit and not real incomes. As such, our economy will not be able to sustain these businesses as there will not be enough money to go around for them. Your example you gave applies to financial institutions mostly. As far as capital and liquidity and again that’s not true in and of itself. If that was the case we wouldn’t be in the situation we are still in. The bailouts would have worked. The bigger picture is funny accounting practices which mean no one trust the other. No one wants to lend to anyone because they don’t know who is solvent and who isn’t. Heck, large corporations were covering payroll via borrowing money, again, utterly absurd.

As far as “infusion of cash into the system” I suggest you research the meaning of inflation.

To answer what’s going to happen or what I think will happen. The world will not stop spinning but the days of America as the world’s super power and resident bully is done. The day of the dollar as the reserve currency is done. The days of people living lavishly is also done. I still get the impression from post like yours and many others that it is not truly understood by many what the other end of this mess is going to look like. But time will show you.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Tungsten_Udder

So you'd say that in 1992, 80% of the job market was not advertised, but in 2008, that's no longer the case? What is the basis of that claim, and why is it that you believe that they didn't advertise in 1992 but would now? Was it difficult to advertise job openings in 1992? You forgot to note, first off, that that one wasn't from 1992. I guess they're just wrong or something?

Also, let's look at what you're saying more closely instead. "Most if not all advertisement agencies . . ." (advertisement agencies?? I'm taking it that was a typo for employment agencies) " . . . post up job listings online." Let's assume that is true. How would that be related to the fact that 85% of all job openings are never advertised OR listed with employment agencies? Are you somehow figuring that if the job isn't listed with an employment agency, then it's going to be posted by the employment agency it wasn't listed with online? Or--Say what??

For the last one, which also wasn't from 1992, but 2007, it contained this statement: "Approximately 2/3 of jobs and internships are never advertised and are filled through networking, cold-calling and other direct contact". So it looks like you should have read more "in depth" there. You're not even bothering to do the slightest bit of research on that. You can get up to 50% of your previous wages, but there are caps. The amount of the cap depends on whether you have an employed spouse and whether you have dependents.

But you're claiming that most folks basically live close to their limits--so that at the rate they were earning, they barely had any money left over at the end of the month. While it may very well be true that a majority of people live that way, it's certainly not a claim I would accept simply on intuition. It would need some empirical evidence. Certainly many people do not do that--and I know that because I also do not do that (a habit I developed probably because I've done so much part time and freelance work in my life), and I know a number of other people who do not.

I re read that link you posted about the "hidden job market". I see what you mean there. As far as 1992 as compared to 2008 umm yeah, things are vastly different. For one the internet's evolution with sites like craigslist, monster.com and a host of other sites which makes posting jobs far easier and cheaper for companies. Also many companies are posting jobs on their sites now. So big difference between now and then.

You are correct about the "hidden job market" though, I conceade that point.

As far as people living to their limits. That is not my claim but the claim of the U.S. government and tons of other research. These links give a glimpse of what I am saying

link

link

There was one study put out by the government that said for every $1 earned by the average American he/she spends 1.50. That means they are using credit cards, and heavily.

But back to the hidden job market. I think the original argument was, are these jobs accounted for when the government makes statements about the amount of available jobs or the lack of? SOME of these hidden jobs are accounted for, remember the government also does surveys were they ask employers if they plan to hire and if so how many and in what sector etc. There is no way they can account for all things in a survey but there is some accounting for these jobs in one form or another.

Even with out a full picture you can still get a glimpse of whats going on. With jobless claims rising records set a decade ago, there isn't work out there for a lot of people. Everyone knows someone out of work these days. You mean to tell me with the availability of talent out there right now the hidden job market is failing? They can't fill these positions? I am sure their positions are getting filled but there just isnt enough jobs out there to absorb the amount of layoffs underway right now.

[Shores9]

It’s Thanksgiving so for breakfast today my wife and I splurged and had 2 eggs, 2 strips of bacon, 2 slices of toast and coffee. Total cost per plate $1.30 and I am truly thankful.

I paused during breakfast to think about those less fortunate around the world – yesterday’s bombings in Mumbai came to mind. Then I thought about all the war, terrorism, and fighting going on around the world. Not to mention sickness and starvation.

I’m really thankful we live here - regardless how bad things are we are certainly better off than most [around the world].

The last several posts especially by planetsurf and wild style have been very interesting… would either care to expand on how it might impact Florida specific.

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Shores9

It’s Thanksgiving so for breakfast today my wife and I splurged and had 2 eggs, 2 strips of bacon, 2 slices of toast and coffee. Total cost per plate $1.30 and I am truly thankful.

I paused during breakfast to think about those less fortunate around the world – yesterday’s bombings in Mumbai came to mind. Then I thought about all the war, terrorism, and fighting going on around the world. Not to mention sickness and starvation.

I’m really thankful we live here - regardless how bad things are we are certainly better off than most [around the world].

The last several posts especially by planetsurf and wild style have been very interesting… would either care to expand on how it might impact Florida specific.

How will this mess affect Florida?

Florida can be broken down into regions and to some extent those regions vary economically. So lets take South Florida where I live. South Florida is mainly tourism, service industry, Real Estate and banking. Well, remember in my last post I state for every dollar earned the average American is spending something like 1.50$. Now, think about how companies base whether or not to open stores up in a given area based on future earning potential. This means demographic research and then figuring out how much money can be bilked out of that area. If these projections were done based on credit (over spending) what happens when that credit is no longer available? What happens when tourism slows down? What happens when inflation kicks in next year and gas starts to rise even more again? As Daily Journalist and many others have pointed out. Florida is some how going to need to transform itself economically or the social/economic impact is going to be really bad. I suspect we will see greater numbers of people leaving Florida, I expect many areas (neighborhoods) will not make it back from this one. I think a return to urban development is underway. I think suburbia will not age well in the long run. For South Florida, I think Miami has the most potential business wise, but will they be able to capitalize on it? A lot of variables right now which are way to unclear to make a definitive call.

[Shores9]

So it’s official – it’s a recession Duh!!
Sales at the nation's retailers tumbling to weakest level in more than 35 years
Nearly two million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession last year, two-thirds of those since this September and most experts feel it’s not close to being over!
Worst housing market since the Depression
Not seen since the depression - Personal bankruptcies and foreclosures at record levels
Not seen since the depression - Bankruptcy, failure, collapse and takeover of several large corporations across several business sectors.
Lowest mortgage rate in history and getting lower – except very few can qualify at today’s rigorous standards
Trillions of dollars of liquidity being pumped into the banking/financial systems but only pennies (if that) making it out to the consumer

And Obama says (as does everyone else) it’s expected to get worse before it gets better

I think the old saying applies here - looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck – Must be a Depression

[Wild Style]

Originally Posted by Shores9

So it’s official – it’s a recession Duh!!
Sales at the nation's retailers tumbling to weakest level in more than 35 years
Nearly two million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession last year, two-thirds of those since this September and most experts feel it’s not close to being over!
Worst housing market since the Depression
Not seen since the depression - Personal bankruptcies and foreclosures at record levels
Not seen since the depression - Bankruptcy, failure, collapse and takeover of several large corporations across several business sectors.
Lowest mortgage rate in history and getting lower – except very few can qualify at today’s rigorous standards
Trillions of dollars of liquidity being pumped into the banking/financial systems but only pennies (if that) making it out to the consumer

And Obama says (as does everyone else) it’s expected to get worse before it gets better

I think the old saying applies here - looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck – Must be a Depression

you guys just wait until credit cards, student loans and auto loans implode.

[rluey29]

Forgive my ignorance but what do you mean implode??

[Ladywithafan]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

you guys just wait until credit cards, student loans and auto loans implode.

humming a few bars of Bachman Turner Overdrive, "you ain't seen nothing yet..."