[Shores9]

As we get uncomfortably close to a "depression like" economy how do you think Florida and Floridians will fare?

There is no doubt at lease in my view the country is headed for recession. By nature it is part of the normal economic cycle occurring in the US about every 10 years since the 70's.

Housing has led the way and now the other shoe looks like its dropping - this time around it has the makings of being particularly harsh - How do you think it will affect Florida?

Here are only a few issues, what are your thoughts? What issues do you feel are relevant?


Employment?? Until recently employment has been relatively solid but over the last few months [nationally] that has changed and with Tourism as Florida's main industry it certainly does not look good. If we move to a national/global recession how will that effect Tourism.
Government?? Another of Florida's largest employers is getting hammered. People are leaving the state and taking tax dollars with them and government is in no position to help. Financial Services? What ever is left of the financial services sector will be shaky at best for many years to come.

Population?? Until 2006 Florida has enjoyed healthy in-migration increasing is population and propping up it's tax base/revenues to the point that state and local governments overspent like drunken sailors. The party is over and now the hangover has set in.

Food and Energy costs?? As if lousy wages and high taxes weren't enough we are getting hammered by the essentials we cannot due without and they are pushing many further into crisis.

Stocks, 401K's Savings?? The stock market has lost 23% from its high last year - In only one day it lost 1.1 trillion dollars and yes there was a rebound but the DOW has been falling and will probably continue well below 10K closer to 8K. How will this affect the average Florida resident? Even if you are not invested in stocks directly or via your 401K the likelihood is if you can cash out [of stocks/401K] you will be reluctant to spend your cash and the days of using your home as an ATM are over.

What do you think will happen and what can we do to make it better!

[Lilybeans]

Depression like? It is either a depression or not. Here's what I think will happen. Not much. Things in Florida are about as bad as they are going to get. Lots of people unemployed, but still plenty of illegals working. The unemployed Americans should do those jobs. I doubt unemployed would be willing to work for those wages though.

[bale002]

Florida needs to shed population, downsize government spending, lower property taxes, develop cutting-edge service companies, cutting-edge and traditional agriculture, and diversify into manufacturing where possible.

This process, if it happens at all, will take 5-10 years.

Otherwise, as the above poster mentions, probably nothing much will happen and Florida will drift back to where it was ten years ago.

For some people that might actually be a blessing.

[AliceT]

Doomsayers are still doomsayers. If you stop reading the newspapers and watching the news about all the doom and gloom, would you be aware of anything different? No, you wouldn't. If you have concerns about you or your family, then keep them focused on you and your family and get counseling. Don't bring it to the Internet and spread the doom and gloom here. It doesn't help to "guess" what may or may not happen if this or that occurs.

Folks, get your feet out of the self-made grave and resume your position in the land of the living and switch your focus to the weather, the pretty skies. I am not saying to bury your head in the sand and ignore everything,m just stop spreading doom and gloom, That is how little problems turn into mountains. Look for the positive and prepare for the future and all the while, teach your children to pay games that don't require batteries or electricity - like cards and board games.

Spend your energy preparing yourself and your family for hard times. When you need one can of corn, buy three. When you need one bottle of shampoo, buy two - but shop again when you have used only one. Learn how to make convenience foods at home. Learn how to make colas at home. Learn how to make bread at home. This is all part of being part of the solution rather than perpetuating the problem.

[compelled to reply]

"Depression"-like? It's not even 1987-like yet. Depressions are, by definition, deep, prolonged, recessions that drag on for at least 10 years. This is a cyclic credit-related bust. I agree with bale002.

[Shores9]

Lilybeans - Agreed - it either is or is not. The Great Depression happened almost 90 years ago and lasted for 10 years. Every other economic downturn [recession] since has only lasted 1-2 years and there is no modern day equivalent. This downturn has been proceeded by a particularly severe housing market and now [excluding the '29 depression] unprecedented financial institution failures and potential catastrophic losses in corporate and personal wealth - Hence "Depression Like"


bale002 - Florida needs to attract more people to help revenue generation and spending, it needs less government not necessarily less government spending. I couldn't agree more about less property taxes and would add restrictions on all types of revenue generation above a level needed to effectively manage critical state and county operations

Also agree that we need cutting edge companies --- of all types - let me add to the list energy [solar bio and wind] and health technologies

AliceT - No doomsdayer here - for the past 10 years or so Florida unemployment has either equaled or been lower than the national average - it is now several basis points higher [US Dept of Labor]. Our labor force has contracted and school enrolment has declined - both a firm indication that our population is shrinking

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Shores9

bale002 - Florida needs to attract more people to help revenue generation and spending, it needs less government not necessarily less government spending. I couldn't agree more about less property taxes and would add restrictions on all types of revenue generation above a level needed to effectively manage critical state and county operations

Also agree that we need cutting edge companies --- of all types - let me add to the list energy [solar bio and wind] and health technologies

Good point to specify the energy and health technologies industries.

Let me modify my point about population. In addition to its traditional draw of retirees and tourists, Florida needs to attract productive people in these cutting-edge sectors, and lower property taxes would help to attract them, but everything in moderation, we have to avoid the excesses of the past six years or so.

[Shores9]

compelled to reply - do you mean the 1990-1991 recession? Peak to Trough cycles as measured by the National Bureau of Economic Research (the folks that actually make the official "recession" call)

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by bale002

Good point to specify the energy and health technologies industries.

Let me modify my point about population. In addition to its traditional draw of retirees and tourists, Florida needs to attract productive people in these cutting-edge sectors, and lower property taxes would help to attract them, but everything in moderation, we have to avoid the excesses of the past six years or so.

Bale002 - I am particularly hopeful that Florida will capitalize on it's natural geographical position and promote "Solar" and "Bio" energy technologies. You are absolutely right about getting productive people "with meaningful jobs" into this state.

Florida politicians really need to get on this issue instead of frying theirs brains in the sun

[Georgia1113]

Alice, maybe nothing has changed for you, but for many Floridians who lost their job, cannot find a job, lots of things have changed. Counseling?? Not much help if you're broke and out of work, and right now a lot of people in Florida are broke and out of work. Florida has changed big time in the past few years and it will take years to correct. People are leaving Florida to find work and survive. People are not moving to Fla. because of the high taxes and insurance and homes overpriced. A lot has changed for people facing foreclosure.

Weather and pretty skies won't pay the bills.

Face reality.