[lukeb321]

Money magazine real estate: Home price forecasts and housing data for the top 100 metro areas

What do you think?
Just released this week.

[SLCPUNK]

No big surprise. We have plenty of inventory to clear with a new wave of Alt A loans going into default.

Ultimately I expect it to over correct, then go sideways for a long time.

[tilli]

I think they are right. Looking at Tampa specifically, if you look at the overall stats, the amount of bubble appreciation was 130.6% from 2000 to the peak in 2006. Total decline so far as of their figures is only 33.4%. So there is still some bubble left to deflate, and considering the job market and overall economy I don't see any forces that would reverse that trend.

[TriMT7]

It's all very local.


But, I wonder how the new programs to help people refinance their homes will help stem the tide of foreclosures? Wasn't one of the tenants of the recent econ stimulus plans something that would help people facing foreclosure due to exotic loans and rate fluctuations refinance easier?

If banks were smart enough to refinance their OWN mortgaged properties without being stupid and saying, "well, the house we already wrote a higher interest mortgage for at 500k no longer appraises that high, so we can't give you a refinance at a lower interest rate that would allow you to stay in your home..."..... then we'd have a lot less problems right now!

[ngrome]

I think it sucks. I have a house to sell in a couple years.

As opposed to my previous posts, I'm going to start hyping up Florida, so consider me crossed over to the dark side.

[crystalblue]

its bad for buyers and govts, good for buyers

finally getting back in line with peoples salaries.

[verobeach]

I think once the market picks up around the rest of the country (particularly up north) then buyers will be back. Here in Vero Beach, we're still getting buyers from South Florida who want to come up away from the throngs of people and the traffic. As trimt7 said... it's all local.

[JohnVosilla]

Originally Posted by tilli

I think they are right. Looking at Tampa specifically, if you look at the overall stats, the amount of bubble appreciation was 130.6% from 2000 to the peak in 2006. Total decline so far as of their figures is only 33.4%. So there is still some bubble left to deflate, and considering the job market and overall economy I don't see any forces that would reverse that trend.

Depends on the area, the property type, number of weak hands/speculators owning property,diversity of the local job market and ability to finance.. Some condo communities in southern Florida and Orlando plus certain overbuilt suburban single family markets such as Cape Coral, Poinciana, North Port, Port St Lucie have given all the appreciation since about 1997-98 back already.

Areas holding out better usually are built out single family home areas close to the coast, jobs not tied to housing and (or) excellent school districts. Even then 2001-02 pricing seem to be where we are at.

With interest rates also so low the worst hit areas are now the buy of a lifetime even better than the early 1990's IMHO

[FLBob]

I think these macro numbers are misleading. Since I'm in the Sarasota area, I can comment on that market.

There are areas where historically no one selected as a place to live. Speculation caused building booms in these outlying areas. North Port is an example in Sarasota county.

Today these speculative areas are highly distressed, high percentage of foreclosures, people attempting to short sale. In these areas bank owned properties lead the sales, and are often times selling much lower than replacement costs.

Since 50% of the sales are of distressed properties, the median price is skewed.

In areas where we did not have speculative building the percentage of distressed property is relativity low. When sales are lumped together the median sales show large price declines.

If you look at the non-distressed areas only, the median sales price while down year over year, is far less than that for the overall area.

My market place, Venice Island, currently has only about 4% of inventory identified as distressed. Where distressed is defined as bank owned or short sale. The median price has declined 15% since 2007. Well below the rate of price decline reported. I think many people are surprised when they look at the more desirable locations and don't see these reported price declines.

With 4.5% interest rates home affordability is returning for those with good credit and secure employment. I'll wait to see, but I don't think that Sarasota will see the projected 25% decline in median sales price that is projected.

[JimMe]

Originally Posted by FLBob

I think these macro numbers are misleading. Since I'm in the Sarasota area, I can comment on that market.

There are areas where historically no one selected as a place to live. Speculation caused building booms in these outlying areas. North Port is an example in Sarasota county.

Today these speculative areas are highly distressed, high percentage of foreclosures, people attempting to short sale. In these areas bank owned properties lead the sales, and are often times selling much lower than replacement costs.

Since 50% of the sales are of distressed properties, the median price is skewed.

In areas where we did not have speculative building the percentage of distressed property is relativity low. When sales are lumped together the median sales show large price declines.

If you look at the non-distressed areas only, the median sales price while down year over year, is far less than that for the overall area.

My market place, Venice Island, currently has only about 4% of inventory identified as distressed. Where distressed is defined as bank owned or short sale. The median price has declined 15% since 2007. Well below the rate of price decline reported. I think many people are surprised when they look at the more desirable locations and don't see these reported price declines.

With 4.5% interest rates home affordability is returning for those with good credit and secure employment. I'll wait to see, but I don't think that Sarasota will see the projected 25% decline in median sales price that is projected.

Thanks, Bob. I can always count on you to provide much-needed and helpful perspective on the real estate market.