[jbravo]

On his way out the door, the housing industry's self-described "cheerleader" is making one last economic forecast -- a sober one at that.

"We're in a real estate recession," said David Lereah, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, who surprised many this week when he announced he would leave the Chicago-based trade group on May 19.

"I'm projecting the first [nationwide] price drop since the Great Depression," he said. "We're going to have negative home prices in 2007."

Ok guys, when the chief economist for NAR says this, what else is there to say?
_
To those on this forum who because of vested intersest said otherwise, the jig is up.

[firemed]

I posted this today under (this is not good for Florida), But to hear this from Lereah you know the market is in bad shape.

[JSnFla]

when will egos break and the firesale begin???

[firemed]

I look at it this was, The 3 year ARM's have started to foreclose, This should last for about 2 years. Then the 5 year ARM's will start. I don't think the real sale will start for about 2 years if not more, Most of the job market in construction will be gone and home prices will go way down as the workers sell to finds jobs in other states. The owners that have renters can't last that long bleeding each month, but will they rent them at all. Now that Lereah is gone who will tell them every 5 months the market will correct in 13 months ?

[Muggy]

Let's see, what do I have in my arsenal of gifs? Ah yes...

[Racelady88]

Not that I wish economic hardship on anyone, but I hope the correction happens soon. I am tired of living with my in-laws while trying to find a house with a reasonable price tag.

[JSnFla]

just hold on for a bit longer, they'll be giving away many condos shortly...

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Let's see, what do I have in my arsenal of gifs? Ah yes...

I still like the housing bear in the tent.

[firemed]

I had to do it !

[Bettygirl]

Is anyone buying in the cape?
What do people consider price corrections? 2001 prices? 2002 prices? 2003 prices?
I think the problem is, there was so much flipping, owners are too invested in their properties to sell for "fire sale" prices.
We have a vacant lot on a canal in NW Cape (thank God we sold our other one in 2005!) and even though we have tried selling for less than what others have recently sold for we haven't had concrete offers (lots of shady bottom-feeders who back out of the contract at the last minute). I'm just glad that we bought before prices exploded. Maybe it would be better to default on property taxes (we are up to date so far) and just walk away.
I would have no problem holding on to the land it the taxes weren't sky-high.
If I thought there was a chance at a tax correction we might consider moving to the Cape. As it is, we won't be able to afford taxes when we do retire. That was the original idea, to build on the lot and retire there. It doesn't seem possible now.