[doggiebus]

Originally Posted by kort677

could it be that less people are using these companies? FLA claims to receive almost 1k new people everyday

Yes, but it is food for thought though. But the school enrollment number are down also. While state enrollment has grown an average of 51,000 students annually since 1989, regular enrollment in 2005 grew by only about 30,000 children. The numbers were down again at the start of the 2006 school year, even in districts with normally climbing enrollment such as Orange, Manatee and Palm Beach.

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by doggiebus

2006 UNITED VAN LINES..........MOVING IN-16,212.......... MOVING OUT-17,019
2005 UNITED VAN LINES..........IN-18,601..........OUT-15,726
2004 UNITED VAN LINES..........IN-20,455..........OUT-13,673

2006 ATLAS VAN LINES..........IN-6,716..........OUT-7,994
2005 ATLAS VAN LINES..........IN-8,579..........OUT-8,256
2004 ATLAS VAN LINES..........IN-9,069..........OUT-7,180

2006 ALLIED VAN LINES..........IN-6,953..........OUT-8,894
2005 ALLIED VAN LINES..........IN-9,385..........OUT-9,300
2004 ALLIED VAN LINES..........IN-10,722.........OUT-8,987

Thank you. This is pretty definative,......Florida population IS shrinking. This also means my real estate agent is full of crap when he stated for every one leaving six are arriving. A sales pitch thingy I reckon and/or old data.

Concerning the 1,000 people arriving everyday? That is true, give or take. But you need to study the years population growth to prove it and to see any trend but the only data on population from the census department has 2004 as it's latest year. The three van lines listed above shows a trend that's is probably true, considering all the info from numerous threads on this forum and others. Good stuff!

2002 Florida POP 16,713,149
2003 17,019,068
2004 17,397,161

......about a 1000 a day, give or take. The mystery is in the 2005 and 2006 pop stats.

[doggiebus]

Originally Posted by Hondax

Thank you. This is pretty definative,......Florida population IS shrinking. This also means my real estate agent is full of crap when he stated for every one leaving six are arriving. A sales pitch thingy I reckon and/or old data.

Concerning the 1,000 people arriving everyday? That is true, give or take. But you need to study the years population growth to prove it and to see any trend but the only data on population from the census department has 2004 as it's latest year. The three van lines listed above shows a trend that's is probably true, considering all the info from numerous threads on this forum and others. Good stuff!

2002 Florida POP 16,713,149
2003 17,019,068
2004 17,397,161

......about a 1000 a day, give or take. The mystery is in the 2005 and 2006 pop stats.

Yah when I saw that 1:6 ratio I was like that is a little high, but Florida's population is growing, but not 1:6 now. But I guess it sounds good to people coming from out of state. But the truth is many people are not moving to Florida as they used too. They are looking at Georgia, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, Tennessee the same place Floridians are looking at moving to instead.

[firemed]

The housing market has not hit bottom yet and probably won’t until sometime in 2008. According to data gathered by the FDIC from the end of 2001 to the end of 2006: Loans secured by real estate are up 76 percent to $4.51 trillion. Residential mortgages for one- to four-family homes jumped 57.7 percent to $2.18 trillion. Home-equity loans are up 203.4 percent to $559 billion.”

“And, no surprise, foreclosures are up too. National foreclosure filings were up 47 percent last month from a year ago to 149,150, according to RealtyTrac.”

“The bigger problem is that the price of a home must ultimately correlate to what individuals can afford, notes Mark Grinis, a partner in Ernst & Young’s real estate, hospitality and construction group. ‘If prices advance significantly ahead of wages, over time there will be a price correction.’”


If this is true Florida has a long way to go !!!!!!
If you live in an area with $400,000 homes but your neighbor had to foreclose on his home and sell it for $250,000, that's a huge chunk of equity that just vanished from the neighborhood.

And when people start to panic, the effect of hysteria might be even worse than the dismal stats.





http://www.nypost.com/seven/05132007...acy_byrnes.htm

[elfyum]

Originally Posted by House4Sale

No. It's really that GOOD here. I wish we were wooed with all these great deals when we bought!! We just kept paying more and more. No one gave us free anything. Take up on the great deals and be thankful for eventually they will dry up esp. when all those folks who left the state find the grass is more dried up on the other side and return.

I'm hearing all kinds of nightmare stories about life in the Carolinas etc. Seems roadway, infrastructure etc. is not keeping up with the out of control growth. Grab these deals before many move back and prices rise again like they did during the last housing boom.

This is the most intelligent comment in the whole thread! Pos rep 4u!

"From Forbes in 2005...17th most expensive zip code...
17 33109 MIAMI BEACH, FL $1,505,655 [average cost of home]
(I know it is Miami Beach, but still... Miami area)"

Actually, that is Fisher Island!

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by doggiebus

Yah when I saw that 1:6 ratio I was like that is a little high, but Florida's population is growing, but not 1:6 now. But I guess it sounds good to people coming from out of state. But the truth is many people are not moving to Florida as they used too. They are looking at Georgia, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, Tennessee the same place Floridians are looking at moving to instead.

With three brothers in Florida already (Jax, Gainesville, and Plantation) I'm moving almost for sure. North PB to Martin County is my area of choice, hopefully with a 1/2 acre+ like the Jupiter Farms area.

Originally Posted by firemed

The housing market has not hit bottom yet and probably won’t until sometime in 2008. According to data gathered by the FDIC from the end of 2001 to the end of 2006: Loans secured by real estate are up 76 percent to $4.51 trillion. Residential mortgages for one- to four-family homes jumped 57.7 percent to $2.18 trillion. Home-equity loans are up 203.4 percent to $559 billion.”

“And, no surprise, foreclosures are up too. National foreclosure filings were up 47 percent last month from a year ago to 149,150, according to RealtyTrac.”

“The bigger problem is that the price of a home must ultimately correlate to what individuals can afford, notes Mark Grinis, a partner in Ernst & Young’s real estate, hospitality and construction group. ‘If prices advance significantly ahead of wages, over time there will be a price correction.’”


If this is true Florida has a long way to go !!!!!!
If you live in an area with $400,000 homes but your neighbor had to foreclose on his home and sell it for $250,000, that's a huge chunk of equity that just vanished from the neighborhood.

And when people start to panic, the effect of hysteria might be even worse than the dismal stats.

I'm watching closly cuz my business (a poultry farm) is not subject to the eb and flow of real estate markets. This puts me in a unique situation in that I can pick my time to relocate. I hope



http://www.nypost.com/seven/05132007...acy_byrnes.htm

I'm watching closely cuz my business (a poultry farm) is not subject to the eb and flow of real estate markets. This puts me in a unique situation in that I can pick my time to relocate. I doubt I'll find a sweetheart foreclosure as those are gobbled up my local concerns but I'm keeping my eyes and ears open.

[riveree]

Originally Posted by doggiebus

Yes, but it is food for thought though. But the school enrollment number are down also. While state enrollment has grown an average of 51,000 students annually since 1989, regular enrollment in 2005 grew by only about 30,000 children. The numbers were down again at the start of the 2006 school year, even in districts with normally climbing enrollment such as Orange, Manatee and Palm Beach.

School enrollment is down? Really? Our schools are busting at the seams here and we are building more - in Duval, St. Johns & Clay county. I don't know where the parents are relocating to, but the kids are relocating here !

[firemed]

Originally Posted by riveree

School enrollment is down? Really? Our schools are busting at the seams here and we are building more - in Duval, St. Johns & Clay county. I don't know where the parents are relocating to, but the kids are relocating here !

North Florida is the place alot of people are relocating to. South Florida is down alot in enrollment. Realestate is in a tail spin not seen since the late 1920s in south Florida. But who is there now?

[House4Sale]

I was beginning to think an honest assessment wasn't welcomed around here. Thanks. You made my day. Now where can I get a free boat? Oh, that's right, I spent all my money on a FULL PRICE house when prices really WERE sky high!

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by Hondax

Doggiebus,
Now we are getting to the meat and potatoes.....thank you. Do they have stats for 2000- 2005?

Sure, and how about what the estimated population will be, 1 year out, 5 year, 10 year ( see the story in todays Sun Sentinel? 400,000 more is believed to be inhabiting Broward Cnty in the next 13 years? ) etc etc.