Shillings forecast on housing 40-50% drop (rental, income, lease)

[SKB]

"The latest gloomy forecast -- backed up by compelling data -- comes from Gary Shilling, frequently bearish, but even more frequently correct. To be blunt, Shilling is forecasting a drop of 40 to 50 percent in home prices in the more overpriced areas such as California, Florida and Las Vegas, and the ordinary homeowner, he says, could see a decline of 10 to 15 percent in the value of a suburban home."


Read the entire article :

http://tinyurl.com/39mt2r

[Arrgh]

[quote=SKB;728530]"The latest gloomy forecast -- backed up by compelling data -- comes from Gary Shilling, frequently bearish, but even more frequently correct. To be blunt, Shilling is forecasting a drop of 40 to 50 percent in home prices in the more overpriced areas such as California, Florida and Las Vegas, and the ordinary homeowner, he says, could see a decline of 10 to 15 percent in the value of a suburban home."


Yep! and today it's global warming and before that acid rain and before that an oncoming ice age. If you believe Shilling I have a bridge you can buy for 50% less than it was yesterday! Actually, how about 80% less. Yikes, what nonsense.

[tallrick]

Let's hope it is true.

[yukon]

I believe KB Homes has posted earnings loss forecasts for the past two quarters. Investors are walking away from deposits on homes in Vegas, the values are dropping so quickly. I must admit, though, the rental market is looking better and better here thanks to the devaluation - investors can't sell so they're opting to rent. Great market to buy now if you have a portfolio and can afford to hold long-term - worst case would be to sell at a loss later after renting for a nice offset to other areas in the portfolio that are profitable.

[Hondax]

I can see a dip in the housing market but 40-50% in heavy markets is.....in conceivable! Why? Because us Boomers continue to retire in record numbers and we ain't gunna stay in RaChaCha or Buffalo any longer than we has to..........Capish? IMHO

I really wish the bubble would explode so I can waltz in on a thin dime and stake my claim,......for cheap, but the realist in me says different. IMHO

[HockeyMom72]

Originally Posted by Hondax

I can see a dip in the housing market but 40-50% in heavy markets is.....in conceivable! Why? Because us Boomers continue to retire in record numbers and we ain't gunna stay in RaChaCha or Buffalo any longer than we has to..........Capish? IMHO

I really wish the bubble would explode so I can waltz in on a thin dime and stake my claim,......for cheap, but the realist in me says different. IMHO

Not necessarily going to go or stay in Florida either. There are a lot more places in this country, warm weather and not, which are much cheaper.

Saying that as someone who is moving to Florida only UNTIL retirement.

[info please]

Hondax, I'm not so sure all the baby boomers will be comming to fl. Our friends moverd to ga, del and s.c And were baby boomers and were leaving the state for the mountians .

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by info please

Hondax, I'm not so sure all the baby boomers will be comming to fl. Our friends moverd to ga, del and s.c And were baby boomers and were leaving the state for the mountians .

Retiring baby boomer numbers are in the 10's of millions over the next 15-ish years. We will need other states for sure but Florida IS the next California. IMHO. There are very few states with hugh area's of 365 days of weather over the freezing mark. This is the greatest attraction for us........no cold...... no snow.....ever......

Even California with it's ebb and flow of people moving in and out, over time, increases in population.

Weather rules!!!!!IMHO

[RedWingsFan]

I'm glad I sold my townhouse in Vegas when the getting was good (last year). I paid $98k for it and sold it for $204k.

[tallrick]

And who is going to support all the "baby boomers"? The current employees have lower wages with respect to inflation. and high costs in Florida do not favor those on a fixed income.

Wouldn't the Boomers want to spend their retirement in the areas they lived and worked in? Why come to die in Florida?