Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (Tallahassee: real estate, property taxes)

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by UKOK

I would have to say, wait longer if you can. Even if it means being "uncomfortable" for the next year or so. Don't forget - A few percent off a 100-year-peak is still a Fools Market.

http://graphics.nytimes.com/images/2...aph2.large.gif

We are no where near the bottom. It's ludicrous that realtors (or whoever) would even say such a thing and even more preposterous that sheepeople believe them. What is suddenly going to make housing costs go up? Nothing is the answer. Not a sudden influx of investors or people who have been waiting on the sidelines with a pocket full of money and who just can't wait any longer. It's going to take a long time to clear out this inventory. People will continue to call the bottom and real estate prices will continue to slide until prices come in line with what the average Joe can afford, plain and simple.

Only people who depend on real estate for their livelihood or people who were shortsighted enough to buy this year will try to convince you the market is on the up-swing.

The existing inventory is not showing any signs of decreasing in the next year. If the inventory continues to climb, we'll wait longer.

This dude made a quote that I can relate to:
"The bottom line is, there are just too many homes on the market,'' said Christopher Low, chief economist at FTN Financial in New York. "The pressure on prices is not going to ease any time soon.''
Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

The Commerce Department talks about the "biggest decline" in median price since 1970:

Prices for new homes are also under pressure. Commerce Department figures on May 24 showed the median price of a new home dropped 11 percent last month from April 2006, the biggest decline since 1970, to $229,100. (same article)

We'll need a few more "biggest declines" in order to consider buying a new home. Despite the recent "biggest decline", new homes are still too overpriced for us to consider buying at this time. This won't end, IMO, until the houses drop to 2003 or early 2004 prices. In the meanwhile, some people will keep their existing homes on the market forever, hoping that this turns around quickly. I wish them luck.

[UKOK]

Originally Posted by kort677

Sometimes it makes sense to take the hit to cut costs, there is no guarantee that in a year or 2 that you're going to get your price and now you've added all the addition costs of carrying the house, your mortgage, taxes, insurance, HOA fees add up fast, how many people can carry 2 houses with all these costs.

Who is carrying 2 houses? I don't understand what you are saying.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by UKOK

Who is carrying 2 houses? I don't understand what you are saying.

I think kort is referring to the people who may want to upgrade from their current homes to something bigger.

Existing home sales fall 56% in two years
Statewide, sales fell 26 percent, to 12,016 homes, while in Tampa Bay, existing home sales decreased by 35 percent, to 2,257 sales. Just two years ago, 5,105 homes were sold in April in the Tampa Bay area.

Median prices, while still declining, are not falling at the same rate as home sales. The median price for the state dropped 3 percent to $237,000, while in Tampa Bay, it fell 5 percent to $209,700. While that is down from a year ago, it is still up 14.5 percent from April 2005.
Existing home sales fall 56% in two years - Tampa Bay Business Journal:

...and that's where the problem lies....

[sunstate]

Just a thought... historically, the closer we get to an election year, the higher the interest rates. With war still going on and gas prices high, I look for interest rates to climb the closer we get to election time.

With that said, those who are waiting to buy until prices drop some more will most likely pay a higher interest rate when they are ready to buy. Most loans now have a stiff pre-payment penalty if you refinance before three years.
So, if you could buy now and can get a 6.5% rate you may be better off than waiting till later and paying 7.5% or higher. The difference in the amount of (higher) interest you would pay would negate any savings you gain by waiting. Additionally, if you do not presently own a home and are renting, you would miss out on the tax deduction of interest paid.
These are things to consider IMO.

[cariad]

Originally Posted by sunstate

Additionally, if you do not presently own a home and are renting, you would miss out on the tax deduction of interest paid.
These are things to consider IMO.

I think I'll pass on the tax deduction and take the interest earned on $20-30 thousand I would have used for down payment and closing costs plus the additional money + interest saved not having to pay taxes, mortgage interest, insurance, maintenance and utility bills.

[Hondax]

Quote from my Realtor in PBC;

"Our state Senate is very close to rolling back our property taxes as much as 30 to 40% and if they get that done this summer, our Governor Charlie Crist, thinks it's the shot in the arm Florida Realtors need to jump start a lot of local buyers coming back in the market."

Does anyone see how this property tax roll back will give the market a shot in the arm?

Could it end the slump?


thanks....Jeff

[kort677]

Originally Posted by Hondax

Quote from my Realtor in PBC;

Does anyone see how this property tax roll back will give the market a shot in the arm?

Could it end the slump?


thanks....Jeff

it certainly can't hurt

[sunstate]

Originally Posted by cariad

I think I'll pass on the tax deduction and take the interest earned on $20-30 thousand I would have used for down payment and closing costs plus the additional money + interest saved not having to pay taxes, mortgage interest, insurance, maintenance and utility bills.

Ya gotta do the math. Have you seen what banks are paying on interest bearing accounts? Not much.
What works in some cases may not work in others. By the way, if you rent, you still gotta pay utility bills and you should have renter's insurance.
All renters never see a dime of money spent. As a home owner, you at least have a chance to recoup money spent one way or another.

I know that my take on the rise in interest rates is not out of whack.

[killaloe]

Originally Posted by sunstate

Just a thought... historically, the closer we get to an election year, the higher the interest rates. With war still going on and gas prices high, I look for interest rates to climb the closer we get to election time.

With that said, those who are waiting to buy until prices drop some more will most likely pay a higher interest rate when they are ready to buy. Most loans now have a stiff pre-payment penalty if you refinance before three years.
So, if you could buy now and can get a 6.5% rate you may be better off than waiting till later and paying 7.5% or higher. The difference in the amount of (higher) interest you would pay would negate any savings you gain by waiting. Additionally, if you do not presently own a home and are renting, you would miss out on the tax deduction of interest paid.
These are things to consider IMO.

If interest rates spike up the current meltdown in home prices will look like a walk in the park. All those adjustable rate mortgaged properties going into foreclosure...you aint seen nuttin yet...

[crystalblue]

and i havent seen it said yet, but one good hurricane this year could dramatically affect the market...