Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (relocation, real estate)

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by JimKing

By the way, Adams homes in Port Charlotte dumped 400 water lots for $20,000 each two weeks ago to another developer. They went for as much as $250,000 at the peak.

So be careful what you consider "getting a deal". You missed a deal at $160,000....when the lots are being sold in bulk for $20,000.

Wow, some folks are determined to lose their money one way or another!

I know the lots you are talking about. Some were located up near US 41 with others going up past Kenilsworth Blvd. Legally you could call them waterfront. However, with some bridges so low you would have to duck in a canoe and are a 1 1/2 to 2 hr boat ride to Charlotte Harbor, all NO WAKE areas, very shallow and another hour to the gulf. Others were on "lakes" that anyone else would call a retention pond. IMHO Real waterfront is NAVIGABLE waters with a quick ride to OPEN water with a minimum of 5' MLW center channel and a mininmum of 10' MHW clearance under any bridge. Any other claim to being waterfront property is absurd. If those lots were waterfront as described above you could have "fire saled" them for over 100K each. They are regular building lots that happen to be on a brackish stream that ultimately flows to open water. AKA gator homes.

I use the Port Charlotte MLS history of closed deals, pending deals and the Charlotte county assessors office to keep the MLS honest. Also, Win2Data and IRIS (Integrated Realty Information Systems) Both are subscription based independant data sources whithout any agendas.

[JohnVosilla]

I'm now seeing some REO's and short sales in Cape Coral and North Port at late 2003 prices. Homes can be bought retail for what appears to be 40% or more below peak prices.. That certainly is a crash.

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by JohnVosilla

I'm now seeing some REO's and short sales in Cape Coral and North Port at late 2003 prices. Homes can be bought retail for what appears to be 40% or more below peak prices.. That certainly is a crash.

ABSOLUTELY! That 250K house in 2005 is now selling for 160 to 170K. There was some new construction that could be had for 160K but they are gone now. The builders dumped inventory, the market set the price and soon we will start approaching balance, probably early 2008. The sooner it is done the better for all.

[killaloe]

Originally Posted by UKOK

I am looking for 2000 prices + a reasonable appreciation (say 3%) for each year and then I buy.

Don't forget to factor in mortgage rates. Home sales prices increase when mortgage rates decline. Rates are considerably lower than they were in 2000. Interest rate increases will definitely hit prices... if they happen.

There are many factors that determine a house's value, not just a straight line percentage increase. Regions are 'discovered' which bump their long term value. Not trying to be a housing market cheerleader but just saying that there are some intangibles that have to be factored. Not sure you are ever going to see 2000 + 3% prices.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by killaloe

Don't forget to factor in mortgage rates. Home sales prices increase when mortgage rates decline. Rates are considerably lower than they were in 2000. Interest rate increases will definitely hit prices... if they happen.

There are many factors that determine a house's value, not just a straight line percentage increase. Regions are 'discovered' which bump their long term value. Not trying to be a housing market cheerleader but just saying that there are some intangibles that have to be factored. Not sure you are ever going to see 2000 + 3% prices.

I agree with Killaloe - when we bought our home in late 90's interest rate was 8%. And another good point brought up by Killaloe is that certain regions get "discovered". Some places in the state are STILL undervalued - they have appreciated (in a healthy way) and in fact are STILL appreciating. The places that are dropping in price are the ones that were overheated a couple years ago and went up insanely due to all the crazy investors getting greedy and trying to "flip" the same day they closed on something. Many areas of Florida (and other states) did not see much of this type of flipping, and their markets are still steady, albeit a bit slower.

Bottom line, if one needs or wants to move or buy a home, find a solid deal at a fair price that you can afford in the town you want. There are no guarantees how long interest rates will stay down or if prices on homes will fall to any certain level. I certainly do NOT agree with those who think values will go back to early 2000 levels. No, I am not a realtor, nor do I play one on TV! lol Just an average resident who is planning to sell my property and purchase elsewhere in Florida in today's market. And feel good about it, too. I say if you need or want to buy now, then DO IT! If you don't have to, and you just want to wait it out, that's OK, too. Everyone has to do what they feel is best for their own situation.

[UKOK]

Originally Posted by gypsychic

IThe places that are dropping in price are the ones that were overheated a couple years ago and went up insanely due to all the crazy investors getting greedy and trying to "flip" the same day they closed on something.
.

Right and these are the areas that you are going to see a drop to 2000 prices + a normal appreciation. I didn't say it would happen in every single area in Florida; of course each area is different.

[HockeyMom72]

New Condo Development in Naples is advertising the developer will pay your for mortgage for a year, your association dues for a year, and all your closing costs. There were a couple of other perks they threw in but I cannot remember. Sorry, I also don't remember the name of development either.

It just seems to me there has been too much new devlopment. Existing housing is stagnant without having more and more NEW housing added to the market. I was in Naples last January and all I saw was new construction all over the place. I don't know who they think will be moving into them.

I am coming to this from what happened here on LI. We had a major housing boom here about 10-15 years ago. They tore up farms and SCHOOLS and put up 3/4 bedroom single family homes. Not only were they vacant for a very long time (before the prices went through the roof too), but when you tear down schools and put up 20 single family homes, eventually you are going to have overcrowding in the existing schools. Who did they think would ibe moving nto these 3/4 bedroom homes. Seniors with no school age kids??? I guess these developers, or the town, aren't thinking beyond today, or they simply don't care because they are looking for the fast buck.

Just my observation based on what has happened in the past.

[robeve310]

If I may ask, how many houses have you bought and sold. I bought my first at 20. When I bought a TH brand new, it was listed on the property app. web for less.

since i was so young i thought i got !@#$%. after researching i learned, the county value is NOT the value of the home. the value will come from upgrades, location, schools, shopping etc.

i am just curious as to why you are so angry. people selling homes are not evil. just make a low ball offer, you never know what you might get. Good luck

[nitroae23]

Florida is shooting itself in the foot with regards property taxes,buyers are less inclined to pay more taxes than their neighbor in the same house because he was there first(save our homes),the demand for services will increase,the state budget will only continue to rise,who's going to pay,if you slap on a 15% sales tax, tourists might/will take their dollars elsewhere,either its an equitable property tax or you're talking,dare I say it,a state income tax?

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by nitroae23

Florida is shooting itself in the foot with regards property taxes,buyers are less inclined to pay more taxes than their neighbor in the same house because he was there first(save our homes),the demand for services will increase,the state budget will only continue to rise,who's going to pay,if you slap on a 15% sales tax, tourists might/will take their dollars elsewhere,either its an equitable property tax or you're talking,dare I say it,a state income tax?

I don't think it is so much "tax Envy" a buyer has to factor in RE taxes before he makes the purchase, the buyer knows what he is getting into before he gets into it. If you were to eliminate all the exceptions to the current sales tax, eg ostrich feed etc etc you have enough cash to eliminate property taxes altogether. A 1 or 2% increase in the sales tax would reduce the RE taxes by about half or more, You will not see that happen because local govt's would then be dependant on the state for their $$$, they would lose too much power. A state income tax is the third rail of politics, not in a hundred years will that happen.

The real issue is out of control spending by the local govt's. A recent WSJ article stated that FL RE tax revenue increased by 300% but the Fl population only increased13%! Where' s the money!!!! Th epoliticos have to start living within a budget. The party is over guys!