Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (Orlando: real estate, property taxes)

[kiwi02]

I had been looking for a house in the Miami Beach area for the last few months. Surprisingly enough, I found a lack of inventory in the particular areas I wanted. The asking price for some of the houses were still very high and the comparables showed that the prices were not unreasonable. I then expanded my search to Keystone Point and was shocked to see how overpriced the houses still were. More than that, most of the houses needed A LOT of work. It seemed that people were selling their property knowing that the buyer would just redo the house. I once again expanded my search to the N.Miami Beach area. The inventory was not that high for the size of house I was looking for, but I was able to find a house that had first been placed on the market last year at about $1 mill. The house was then in the market again for $799K and further reduced to $750K. There were no real comparables in the area because houses had not been for sale there lately. After research I found that the $750 was substantially below what many people had paid for houses on the same street in the period between 2004-2006!

My view in presenting a low offer for a house is that it does not constitute an "insult" to anyone. After all, the purchase of a home is a business transaction. Nothing personal.

[info please]

Skb I Don't Need To Hide Behind Pm. I Am Not The Person You Think I Am . And You Could Never Buy A Home In Windermer For 200.000 Lol To Funny

[songgirl]

It seems that many people are thrilled with the now dismal housing market here in FLA. If you are a potential buyer, all is rosy for you, but what about those of us that bought when things were booming? I'm not a invester and I'm not greedy. My husband got a new job after being laid off in Connecticut, so we bought a house in St Augustine for our family....

There are many other average families like mine who relocated, bought a house, and now are watching there property values plummet. This is nothing that other people should rejoice in.

The reason many sellers are not lowering their asking prices more than they are, is because they can't afford to. To lose that kind of money in today's economy is a huge hit for the average family. One that may take years to recover from.

Personally, I'd like to see the market balance out as soon as possible and for people to stop wishing for this major crash where prices drop to 2000 prices. This would ruin many average people.

The ridiculous salaries here in Florida are as much a problem as the housing costs.....Even more so. We need to be hoping for and demanding a better balance, not some kind of "crash" in the housing market.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by Audacious

Also North Port and the Port Charlotte area. Still lots of inventory but it is falling at a better rate.
8 mos ago new construction could be bought for 160K not any more those deals are OVER, the spec builders got burned, dumped inventory, took their lumps and are now build to contract only. Next best deal for the same type of house 2 years old is about 190K. This NOT to say that all is well but it is turning around. Sooner or later the public will realize it and then the market will approach balance. As I mentioned before the market HAS and ALWAYS will determine value and where the tops and bottoms are.
If that house that was 160K is now over 190K does that mean all prices went up, NO. It means that it is beginning to stabilize. It is the first step. The market went up way too fast in 36 mos. 30% gains per year were not sustainable. It has now fallen about 35% in 24 mos. A rather hard and fast correction. I am not speaking for all of Fl just South Sarasota.

Another point of interest, I do not claim to be the sharpest pencil in the box and do not believe that anyone else here is either. However, Lowes, Target, Macy's, Publix all major Corps' who have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on research re demogrpahics, population trends etc etc seem to be putting their money in south county. There is a 300,000 SF mall being built with other national retailers and high end restaurants coming to town. The Stae of FL is already widening bridges to accomodate the widening of I 75. Why do you think these big outfits are doing this when EVERYBODY knows that RE armageddon is just around the corner? Could it be that all these engineers and market analysist are dead wrong and everybody else is right???

These people are paid to figure out this sort of thing, they are nobodys' fool, have no agenda other than trying to figure out where the money is going to, will the demographics support their decision and when should they get in before everyone else figures it out. Migration inward, growing population, affordable housing, decent jobs
Natural Foods makes Sarasota move official
and a multitude of other factors that most of us cannot even understand much less weigh into an equation or time series analysis. The doom & gloomers, naysayers et al who believe the economy will forever recede, that housing costs will back to 7 years ago are just wishing and hoping for something that will never happen. Sorry guys that's the real world. by the way PUHLEASE do not post 1000 articles saying otherwise. I can post a thousand more to support my position. It's pointless. I'm just a little tired of all the self appointed/annointed prophets out there. There is only one prophet re real estate THE MARKET ! and if you can be quiet for a little bit you will hear it talking. Learn from history, this is not the first RE slowdown or meltdown or bubbleburst or whatever you want to call it. There have been plenty over the last 30 years and where did the price of housing go over the last 30 years?????? if you can't answer that you should be living with your parents.

Wow, I know this one is gonna get clobbered!

Here is an interesting article about all of that building and planning those brilliant engineers and market Analysis experts created:

"But it was the collapse of North Port's home building industry that brought the office market to a standstill.

Suddenly, developers found it impossible to fill their new buildings, and lease rates plummeted."

read more: North Port: Gloom town

[Hondax]

Originally Posted by kiwi02

I had been looking for a house in the Miami Beach area for the last few months. Surprisingly enough, I found a lack of inventory in the particular areas I wanted. The asking price for some of the houses were still very high and the comparables showed that the prices were not unreasonable. I then expanded my search to Keystone Point and was shocked to see how overpriced the houses still were. More than that, most of the houses needed A LOT of work. It seemed that people were selling their property knowing that the buyer would just redo the house. I once again expanded my search to the N.Miami Beach area. The inventory was not that high for the size of house I was looking for, but I was able to find a house that had first been placed on the market last year at about $1 mill. The house was then in the market again for $799K and further reduced to $750K. There were no real comparables in the area because houses had not been for sale there lately. After research I found that the $750 was substantially below what many people had paid for houses on the same street in the period between 2004-2006!

My view in presenting a low offer for a house is that it does not constitute an "insult" to anyone. After all, the purchase of a home is a business transaction. Nothing personal.

Hello Kiwi,
Miami area is NOT one of the Florida areas experiencing a pull back in real estate prices. So I imagine at $750,000 that same house went for $375,000-500,000 in the early 2000's. All indications IMO point to further downside. Downside that will bring even Miami to it's knee's. Unless you light Cuban cigars with hundred dollar bills rent for a while and see what happens. Most people that posted on this thread believe the same, backing up there position with quotes, charts, and graphs from some of best analysts, from private, institutional, and governmental bodies.

Kiwi if you can wait I don't think you can go wrong. If you buy now it's a crap shoot. Traditionally Florida real estate picks up after the Hurricane season in October. Wait and see,.....be patient.

If you decide to make an offer, offer what you are willing to pay, regardless of insulting anyone. This decision is about your hard earned dollars not some snobs feelings. Good Luck.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by songgirl

It seems that many people are thrilled with the now dismal housing market here in FLA. If you are a potential buyer, all is rosy for you, but what about those of us that bought when things were booming? I'm not a invester and I'm not greedy. My husband got a new job after being laid off in Connecticut, so we bought a house in St Augustine for our family....

There are many other average families like mine who relocated, bought a house, and now are watching there property values plummet. This is nothing that other people should rejoice in.

The reason many sellers are not lowering their asking prices more than they are, is because they can't afford to. To lose that kind of money in today's economy is a huge hit for the average family. One that may take years to recover from.

Personally, I'd like to see the market balance out as soon as possible and for people to stop wishing for this major crash where prices drop to 2000 prices. This would ruin many average people.

The ridiculous salaries here in Florida are as much a problem as the housing costs.....Even more so. We need to be hoping for and demanding a better balance, not some kind of "crash" in the housing market.

It actually hasn't been all rosy for us, we watched in 2002 the price of homes double and then some while we were off living overseas due to my husbands govenment job with the intention of moving back to the USA in five years to buy a home.

During this time I spend hours and hours doing market research and trying to get an understanding of why the prices were escalating at such a rapid speed. It was during this time of research, I learned about the Credit bubble, investors, flippers, speculators, sub prime lending, prior bubbles etc. I got educated duing this time and I learned that this bubble was unsustainable and was guaranteed to fail.

If I had not done this research, I am sure I may have fallen victim like you have to the hype from the industry. The constant bantering with fraises such as "real estate always goes up" "running out of land" "buy now or be priced out forever" was just hype, scare tactics and ways for others to make lots of money at the expense of others. It is a shame that you jumped in like that, without the proper knowledge behind you. I am sure if you did, you would not have bought at the time you did. If you had known you would have rented and waited out this to see the inevitable crash that was going to happen.

When the prices drop to affordable levels again it is going to fix many problems in the Country. The worst thing for people that can not afford to make their payments on their ARM's will be a REO on their credit report that will last for seven years. That really isn't the worst thing that could happen to someone.
A lot of people bought homes with 0 down, since they had no skin in the game they are really losing nothing anyways. The ones that will lose are the ones that actually put some money down and will have to accept this loss and move on from it. If they don't have to sell, then declining property values are not the end of the world for them. They should forget about it and just keep making their payments and enjoy their lives. What difference does it make if you don't have sell? In time values will climb again, it's just going to take time for that.

I am sorry for your situation, I hope you are not in need of selling and can afford your mortgage,insurance and taxes.


Best of luck to you.

[songgirl]

Thanks SKB,
I don't have to sell right now, so ride it out we will. But you never know what curve ball might come your way. We didn't expect my husband to get laid off back in Connecticut either. In retrospect, sure I wish we had rented when we moved here. But we wanted a more permanent place for our daughter.

My point is that some people keep posting about greedy investers, etc., but most people that are personally affected are people like you and me. Some, like you, feel priced out and some like me, feel locked in.

I just wanted people to consider the other side. A crash will devastate many decent people. And like I said, the reason people are not lowering their asking prices as much as some would like to see is not because of greed, but need.

I hope you find what you are looking for and can find a way to make it work for you. Good Luck!

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by SKB

Here is an interesting article about all of that building and planning those brilliant engineers and market Analysis experts created:

"But it was the collapse of North Port's home building industry that brought the office market to a standstill.

Suddenly, developers found it impossible to fill their new buildings, and lease rates plummeted."

read more: North Port: Gloom town

Then why are they still building and new projects starting every day? The same reason as the housing slump, this too will pass. There are cycles to every market. Up down then up then down. The only constant is that the market determines the ups and downs and when it peaks and falls.

[SouthFloridaNative]

Audacious: I am asking the same questions. I look around in SW FLorida and all I see is growth. New shopping centers, new developments, new roads, etc. And so I wonder why all this growth would continue if the real estate was all so doom and gloom. It doesn't make sense.

And yes, it's Hurricane Season..and the last boom started right after Hurricane Charley. After Charley it was like everyone wanted a piece of SW FL.

[JimKing]

This was NOT a normal housing 'cycle'. This was artificially created by a lot of players.

1. Historically low interest rates by Greenspan
2. Creative financing never seen before in this volume.
3. Historic numbers of no doc and liar loans.
4. Appraisers who gave whatever numbers prople wanted.
5. Record numbers of amateur flippers.
6. Record number of building projects.

There were no fundamentals to support any of his. It was all created by people trying to run up prices. Now we are left with record foreclosures, record vacancies, record property taxes, and record insurance costs.

There is no 'riding it out'. The down trend has barely started and will go on and on for years and years.

So people telling others to ride it out as if the market will start going up again in 6 months...or 1 year...or 3 years are selling nothing but false hope. There may be a few small dead cat bounces, but overall things are headed down for a long time.