[kort677]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

Oh, and ignore realtors but pay attention to some anonymous person on an internet forum?

haven't you figured it out that these big time real estate tycoons know everything that there is to know regarding the real estate markets, the commodity markets, the foreign exchange markets, the commercial bond markets, the government bond markets.

since their pool of knowledge is so vast and deep that no matter how much you try to enlighten them with tales of your real world experiences they just spout the same regurgitated nonsense, their warped opinions that are nurtured by listening to people and pundits who are as clueless as they are.

I am still waiting to hear why, after they've found homes that are renting cheap or have found homes with multipliers lower than their numbers, why haven't they stepped up to the plate and either rented something or bought something.

They do not realize that when buying for investment, if the number work and a property is in a positive cash flow situation what the real estate market does is almost irrelevant because you've already locked in a profit.

maybe these real estate experts should buy a course from one of those infomercials, then they might be able to begin to formulate a clue.


bottom line believe half of what you see and none of what advice you get on forums like this

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by kort677

I am still waiting to hear why, after they've found homes that are renting cheap or have found homes with multipliers lower than their numbers, why haven't they stepped up to the plate and either rented something or bought something.

I'm still waiting to hear some good reasons why I should buy a house. Having negative equity for the next 5 years or more isn't a good idea. Housing prices HAVE to drop a LOT more, based on median income and affordability. It's that simple. That's why houses aren't selling.

I'd like to know why you think they're not selling?

According to your advice RE is "local" and it's all about "location, location, location". With the plethora of homes available, there certainly must be great "location" in most every "local" area. I realize some may be selling, but overall, they're not, even in your Orlando area, my friend.

Originally Posted by kort677

They do not realize that when buying for investment, if the number works and a property is in a positive cash flow situation what the real estate market does is almost irrelevant because you've already locked in a profit.

I'd like to know what properties are in "positive cash flow" situations. There aren't any of the 78 houses I'm looking at.

Originally Posted by kort677

bottom line believe half of what you see and none of what advice you get on forums like this

Including yours?

[nychiefsfan]

Speaking of advice, here's some useful links

This link is the main reason why people should not buy a house right now. After you click on the link, click on the picture and it'll magnify:
http://www.1stmillionat33.com/posts/.../house_his.gif

For us, one of the most important factors in buying a home is the quality of education in the area. That's a reflection of the neighborhood and potential crime issues. Here's some school rating websites you might want to check out. It's so important to have good schooling available. The first one is the best one, IMO:
Florida School Indicators Report
GreatSchools.net

Here's some great housing search links:
Zip Realty has an interactive map that's really cool. You can get comparable sales numbers, exact street addresses, the days the house has been on the market, see all of reductions the owner made, etc. Sign up for free on their website and they'll send you any updates immediately.
ZipRealty Real Estate -- Homes for sale and local real estate agents

If you would like to do a customizable search, this website below, you can do a search by subdivision, (if there's a particular subdivision that you're interested in):
Tampa Home Listings - Tampa Bay Home Listings - Tampa Home Search - Search Homes in Tampa

Property Appraisal
On the upper right hand corner of the link below, you can search property records that will tell you everything about the property, including what the current owner paid for it, the date they bought it, if the house has anything extra, like a fireplace, pool or spa, how may square feet, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc. It also has an interactive map that allows you to see exactly where the house is located:
Hillsborough County Property Appraiser (outside of Hillsborough County, you can do a Google search by typing in your county and property appraiser)

Some additional sites you may want to consider are:
Craigslist (do a local search for your area)
tampa bay area real estate for sale classifieds - craigslist

Any For Sale by Owner site like:
FSBO, Real Estate For Sale by Owner, Homes, Houses, Property for sale by owner
For Sale By Owner, homes for sale, real estate, for sale by builder from Infotube.net

Misc: (check out your area's Penny Savers, Flyers, etc)
The Flyer Classifieds Online: Local ads in Florida

Bank Owned Properties:
Your online source for buying HUD homes, foreclosures and bank owned properties, helpful resources and links (Check out the REO section for links)

Median values
National City has a great interactive map which shows their estimate of median house value and the actual price over the periods for which they have data.
Housing Valuation Analysis*-*Corporate*-*National City Corporation

This site gives you a running total of existing home inventory in virtually every city in America. I've been tracking this on an excel spreadsheet since 5/13/07. Since 6/27/07, there are 48 less homes on the market in the Riverview, Brandon and Seffner areas. That doesn't necessarily mean they've sold. I'm tracking 78 homes on an excel spreadsheet and a lot are now "inactive". I suspect that homeowners are pulling their houses off of the market until the market heats up again. The reason I say this is based on the number of homes that were listed as inactive this past month and the fact that pending home sales (a leading indicator of housing activity based on contracts agreed by owner and seller) fell 7.6% in May vs. April's numbers and are down 13.7% from a year ago.
Paper Money - A Real Estate Bubble Blog

Speaking of economic indicators, this next site is awesome. The housing industry has so much influence on the economy and vise-versa. This site gives you every report you could want in regard to economic indicators such as housing starts, existing home sales, pending home sales, consumer confidence, builder's confidence, unemployment, building permits, auto sales, factory orders, personal income, etc. They are ALL tied into housing and the direction of the economy.
Reports from Briefing.com - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Here's some incredible blogs that are informative and useful:
It's A Terrible Time To Buy
Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops

Paper Money: A US Real Estate Bubble Blog (check out the "cool tools" on the RH side of the page)
Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Look into your county or area's NAR.
This site is the Greater Tampa Association of Realtor's website. It gives you a lot of numbers to work with, if you love numbers. Check out your area to compare this years numbers to the last 2-3-4 years and see the difference!!!
GTAR (broken link)

I hope these links help those who use them!!!

NYCF

[Obrero]

Yet again nychiefsfan, you have backed up your point of view with well researched and presented facts / links. Something that I have failed to see from those who purport now is an opportune time to purchase a house.

[SKB]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

I'm still waiting to hear some good reasons why I should buy a house. Having negative equity for the next 5 years or more isn't a good idea. Housing prices HAVE to drop a LOT more, based on median income and affordability. It's that simple. That's why houses aren't selling.

I'd like to know why you think they're not selling?

According to your advice RE is "local" and it's all about "location, location, location". With the plethora of homes available, there certainly must be great "location" in most every "local" area. I realize some may be selling, but overall, they're not, even in your Orlando area, my friend.


I'd like to know what properties are in "positive cash flow" situations. There aren't any of the 78 houses I'm looking at.


Including yours?

Excellent thoughts and strong points as usual Chief.

[essessemm]

Instead of using the 120 x rent multiplier, another way to generate a starting point for a house value after the recent speculation/cheap money/no lending standard frenzy is to start by looking at 1997 values.

Between 1997 and 2005/6 home prices pretty much left the typical increase (1-2% increase over inflation) behind, with much greater increases from 2003 on.

If you start with the 1997 value and increase at 4-5% for 10 years this will give you a starting point. Obviously, locations vary and some places ARE more desirable to live than others, so you may have to adjust that number up/down.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by UKOK

Yet again nychiefsfan, you have backed up your point of view with well researched and presented facts / links. Something that I have failed to see from those who purport now is an opportune time to purchase a house.

Thanks, UK! I'd be scared if I recently bought a $300k house and may be facing negative equity for the next 5+ years. With the median price continuously dropping, it would be foolish to buy until the median drops somewhere near what people can afford.

I may be completely wrong. In a couple years, that $300k house may be worth $318k. My guess is that it'll be worth $250k or less.

Originally Posted by SKB

Excellent thoughts and strong points as usual Chief.

Hiya SKB and thanks! Where've ya been, woman?? We haven't seen ya in a few days?

[Carbondated]

Thank you so much for the info/links nychiefsfan.

My husband and I are living in the Sarasota County area and are considering purchasing our first home. We, however, haven't decided whether it is economically in our best interest to stay in this area or in this state, for that matter.

I have read these message boards and largely disregard posts, (which I regard as propoganda), by those with a "financial interest" in the housing market. I appreciate your post, because it allows me to conduct my own research and eventually will help my husband and I to make our decision.

Thank you again for the links!

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by essessemm

Instead of using the 120 x rent multiplier, another way to generate a starting point for a house value after the recent speculation/cheap money/no lending standard frenzy is to start by looking at 1997 values.

Between 1997 and 2005/6 home prices pretty much left the typical increase (1-2% increase over inflation) behind, with much greater increases from 2003 on.

If you start with the 1997 value and increase at 4-5% for 10 years this will give you a starting point. Obviously, locations vary and some places ARE more desirable to live than others, so you may have to adjust that number up/down.

That would pretty much fall in line to my expectations that prices will drop to the 2003-04 levels before they bottom out.

[00FXDL]

Old timer is right. The property tax appraiser's just market value has no bearing on what a property may or will sell for. It is worth what someone will pay, be that hi or low. True, some dramatic price drops have occured, mostly in overcrowded, every third house is the same, cookie cutter subdivisions. I have recently put my ski lake waterfront home in Land o Lakes up for sale as a FSBO, and I will not give it away. To do so is not fair to me or the other property owners. I feel location, location, location, still drives the market. As a FSBO, I do have some more room to move on price, and I'd rather give a buyer the consession, than pay an inflated commission.