[JimKing]

Prices will go below 2000 + 3%/year appreciation if you wait a few years. Wages have been stagnant, insurance, gas, taxes, education, child care costs have all increased. Many potential buyers have heavy debt burdens paying credit card balances each month.

The majority of folks have used a lot of their future buying power up already. Buyer will have less and less money to put towards principle and interest with each passing year. Even if interest rates drop, that changes the equation for buyers a few hundred per month...not a factor in the big financial picture.

The long term fundamentals say prices will eventually drop below 2000 prices...despite what the Realty industry tells you.

[fkweston]

More than a prediction your words sounds like a wish, to see the florida housing market fall down like the twin towers... i can read in your words that florida's people deserve that to happens because they got a lot in the boom. My advice, keep waiting.

Originally Posted by SKB

Patience is the key right now, pretty soon panic is going to set in and you are going to see a mass flood of short sale listings.

We to are planning on making a purchase, my thoughts are the Fall 2008 we will see our 50% corrections.
I don't agree to a slow decline, Americans are far to impatient for that to happen. People will not be able to sell or stay so they will simply mail back the keys and walk away. After that banks will start trying to unload their losses as quickly as possible.
My prediction is that prices will drop 50% in Florida by next years end and continue to slowly decline or stay flat for many years to come.

I wouldn't bother to try to get a realtor's opinion in this market as their livelihoods are involved so you will not get an honest answer anyways.

If you are not, you should be reading the thehousingbubbleblog.com this site will give you all of the up to date information on what is really happening with the market. They feature Florida usually every day.

SKB

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by JimKing

The long term fundamentals say prices will eventually drop below 2000 prices...despite what the Realty industry tells you.

I'd be willing to pay 2002 or 2003 prices for a home right now, but many seller's asking prices are higher than what they were at the end of the housing boom!!!

IMO, the impending problem will play itself out. The market continues to get flooded with "existing home" inventory, while the "new home" builders are discounting their prices, giving warranties and adding incentives. The existing home sellers aren't able to compete, which even further floods the market with existing homes. The economy has slowed down to a snail's pace. The Fed isn't willing to step in right now, but eventually they'll have to drop the interest rates to prevent a full blown recession and to encourage to sales of existing homes.

The writing is on the wall, but the govenrment shrugs off the housing slump as a non-important isuue at this time, because all they see is a rising stock market, despite numerous layoffs within the housing industry and a growing inventory of existing homes.

Between the buyer and the seller, someone's gotta give. I'm betting on the seller. I'd rather rent a house for the next 8 years and move elsewhere when my daughter goes to college, than to overpay for a home right now.

I don't think I'm alone in that sentiment.

Let the sellers ask whatever they want for their homes. If they get what they're asking for, great!!! This is America!!! I just hope they're not counting on selling it in 2-3 months. Many will find their homes on the market for 6 months to a year before they start knocking down their asking price.

And it all boils down to the asking price. As far as the renters are concerned, we can wait a very long time for this to happen. We can be equally as stubborn as the sellers!!!

[nychiefsfan]

HOUSING SOUNDS A SOUR NOTE

The only sour note came from the National Association of Realtors, which said its Pending Home Sales Index that is based on contracts signed in April dropped 3.2 percent to 101.4 from a revised 104.8 in March. It underlined the well-known woes facing the struggling housing sector.
May jobs growth strong, prices muted

It's interesting that they don't mention the 12.2% drop since last March, which was a bad year to begin with....

[nychiefsfan]

Here's a great read (for those of use who want to buy). This dude preaches a similar sentiment as my own:

People Selling Existing Homes Still Aren't Seeing the Big Picture …

The existing home market represents about 85% of all sales in a typical month, so it's much larger than the new home market. But people trying to sell their current homes either can't or won't cut their prices enough to draw buyers back into the fold.

Just look at the April numbers:

Median prices fell 0.8% year-over-year to $220,900. That was a record ninth month in a row of declining prices, but it just wasn't enough to boost demand

Sales dropped 2.6% from March to a 5.99 million seasonally-adjusted annual rate. That was was the worst reading since June 2003.

The supply of homes for sale shot up 23% year-over-year to a record high of 4.2 million properties.

Want to get a sense of just how big that 4.2 million number is? Well, up until the boom started going bust, we typically had anywhere from 2 million to 2.5 million existing homes on the market. That means we're oversupplied to the tune of 1.7 million to 2.2 million homes. Yikes!

In terms of how many months it would take to sell all the homes on the market, we're at the highest level since 1992.

What This Means for The Housing Market


If you're a buyer, the world is your oyster right now. Home builders are throwing everything but the kitchen sink — and sometimes even that — at people willing to sign purchase contracts.

And sellers of existing homes will come around sooner or later. Until they do, drive a hard bargain. If they won't meet your price, consider walking away.

Another tip: Foreclosures are starting to ramp up. Unlike normal sellers, banks usually don't mess around. They price aggressively to move properties off their books. So you may find some good deals if you're willing to do the legwork.

If you're selling, I have one piece of advice: Get realistic! This isn't the market we had last month, last quarter, or last year. It's a whole different ballgame. You're competing against aggressive builders. And you're trying to sell into a market with the largest number of homes for sale in U.S. history. So you have to price your property right if you want to get serious buyer traffic, to say nothing of a sale.

And I haven't changed my longer-term housing forecast one bit: With so much supply on the market, we're likely to have an extended period of weakness — relatively lackluster sales, elevated supply, and stagnant or slumping prices. A lasting recovery is not likely until later in 2008, if then.

Price is everything in today's housing market! (by Mike Larson)

[verobeach]

Jeesh, who are you trying to convince?

[kort677]

Originally Posted by vero beach

Jeesh, who are you trying to convince?

themselves!

one big flaw in their arguments is that they are treating FLA as one market, and realistically you can't do that.
real estate is a very local business, and while some localities are "depressed" others are just humming along steadily and a very few others are still gaining value.
Bottom line: take whatever you read here with a big grain of salt

[LingLing]

Originally Posted by kort677

themselves!

one big flaw in their arguments is that they are treating FLA as one market, and realistically you can't do that.
real estate is a very local business, and while some localities are "depressed" others are just humming along steadily and a very few others are still gaining value.
Bottom line: take whatever you read here with a big grain of salt

Good answer! I was always a renter. I like the freedom to move around. After a huge federal tax bill and a mean landlord, I bought my first house. Since then, I found the meaning of a home. A home is a place where I can go, add whatever I want and paint any color of my choice. A home is a private place and everyone will have to have my permission to access. I won't put my life on hold in hope of buying a property at a discount price. This type of the property may not meet my criteria. One thing I won't do is to buy something I can't afford. Like any investment, there is a risk. If you don't stay in the market, you may never profit. In the case of a home, the profit can’t just be measured by money but also have to be measured by the comfort it brings you. For the potential buyers, I happen to think it is a great time to buy your dream and get a good bargain. If you are really worried about making money, then invest in stock market like someone else has suggested here (Remember in 2000, when stock market crashed, everyone was saying that the housing market is a great investment because at least you would have a place to call home.). IMO, residential housing market is never a good place to invest. It is just not liquid enough. With this being said, I understand your concerns. So by any means, taking your time and shopping for the best you can afford.

[Jammie]

Originally Posted by kort677

themselves!

one big flaw in their arguments is that they are treating FLA as one market, and realistically you can't do that.
real estate is a very local business, and while some localities are "depressed" others are just humming along steadily and a very few others are still gaining value.
Bottom line: take whatever you read here with a big grain of salt

What area of Florida is "humming along"?

[Hondax]

Florida is experiencing a net relocation loss. To approximate it's 17 to 16. For every 17 people leaving 16 are moving to Florida. This has been going on for quite a few months now. So where are all the buyers coming from to purchase the excess real estate? They're not coming.....therefore more downside must be in the future IMO.

Even super hot PBC is experiencing a 10%+ price reduction on single family homes as inventories are at record levels. Condo's and Town homes are still holding their own as inventories are normal.


Here's a link with detailed information: Has Florida Exodus Begun?: Firm's Vans Move More Out Than In