[Prichard]

This would be true if most people who caused this bubble in the first place were buying property "for the utility and not an investment" but that simply isn't the case.

Most people were buying for the utility, not just the investment. It was a great time for people to upgrade into a bigger/better house, or to get out of an appartment and into a house or condo. This is the bulk of who bought during this time. The investors who purchased homes to rent, or downtown condos were a much smaller fraction of buyers. If you do some research on this, you will see that this is just a classic model of why house prices are very sticky and don't tend to have as much volitility on the downside. Most buyers were just like me, you, and everyone who just wants to get into a nicer house. So, most people will have the staying power to "ride out the real estate storm".

After all, that's we Floridians are good at riding out storms.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by pslOldTimer

Where are you obtaining your numbers for Just Market Value?

Here's an example of what's posted on the Hillsborough County Property Appraiser's page:

Value Summary
Building Value $251,090
Extra Feature Value $27,440
Land Value (Market) $83,104
Land Value (Agriculture) $0
Just (Market) Value $361,634
Assessed Value (A10) $257,153
Exempt Amount $25,000
Taxable Value $232,153


Sales HistoryOff. Record Date TypeInst Qualified or Unqualified Vacant or Improved Sales Price
Book Page Month Year
XXXXX YYYY 2003 WD Qualified Improved $160,200

[nychiefsfan]

The assessed value, just market value and tax value are all different numbers.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by rpow53

On the news this morning it reported that the "new" housing market was up more than it has been in 14 years. there is no housing bubble, just a lot of nervous buyers. The only people that will lose their home are the ones that could not afford it to begin with.

It's funny how the Census Bureau tries to make it seem like there's another housing boom, but if you look at the numbers, on a year-over-year basis sales are still declining in the double digits at 10.6% below the sales activity seen in April 2006.

It’s important to keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of the significant declines seen in 2006. The numbers are "outstanding" in the eyes of the builders, yet builder confidence dropped to an all-time low last month. Someone isn't reporting the truth, or they're twisting the truth to make it seem like great news, but the bottom line is, the housing market is still suffering.

Unfortunately, people trying to sell their homes for 2005 prices will see today's housing report as justification for their asking price.

Mark Vitner, senior economists with Wachovia said, "The housing market seems to be bottoming out. The worst is clearly behind us in terms of the decline in home sales and construction activity."

What a joke!!!

As we saw today, the Census Bureau twisted the "New Home Sales" numbers to make it seem like the housing boom is back in full swing. It'll be interesting to see how the National Association of Realtors twist the "Existing Home Sales" report tomorrow...

[dreamofmonterey]

Originally Posted by pslOldTimer

Where are you obtaining your numbers for Just Market Value? If they are from the county property appraiser's numbers, you should take them with a grain of salt. There are often vast differences between what the property appraiser says is Just Market Value and the actual market value of the property. For one thing, the property appraiser does not do a full appraisal on each property, just a curbside appraisal at best. They also leave out significant factors such as commissions and selling costs There are also political or personal variances in the values that any given property appraiser's office sets.

Market value is that value that is determined by a willing seller and a willing buyer. The most pure form of market value is determined by auction, assuming there is a valid cross-section of buyers at the auction.

The property appraiser's value should almost never be considered in any serious discussion of real market values.

Informative post. There are people who can afford to sit on their property fror two or more years. Especially in S Florida. Don't expect a mass price reduction. Property appraisal is just one minor factor- every sector of Fl is different, depending on the neighborhood, investors, etc.

[House4Sale]

And it wasn't greed that bought that house as we sincerely expected to stay hence the $17,000 in upgrades and a premiere lot with a view. We did not settle for the two or three choices the builders gave us but hand picked our own after much sleuthing and shopping.

Note of caution -- Buyer beware of swampy and overgrown lots they sometimes show you. Not only do they need clearing but one doesn't know what it looks like w/o all the trees. Oftentimes, those lots need much fill which is another expense or they hide a multitude of sins.

[seeriously]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

I'm insulted by the sellers that are still trying to get June 2005 prices on a house when it's supposedly a buyer's market.

If you see a house for sale that was built in 2005, don't expect the seller to sell it for anything less than what he paid for it. The reason is because the house was contracted in 2004 or possibly earlier. In other words, if a newly built house went for $300,000 in June of 2005, then the buyers set the price in 2004 and he got a bargain. In a built-in-2005 neighborhood, you will have identical homes spread 100,000 or more apart depending if it the contract was signed in 2004 or if it was one of the latter built homes that got caught up in the wave of inflation. The mid 2005 date only works if it was a resale. I watched the houses in my neighborhood go up $20,000 each month in 2005. Those that came along later got screwed.

[Dalt10]

Keep sitting on the fence and waiting for the prices to drop. When the prices hold steady or start inching up everybody will be crying again.
They aren't dropping in my neighborhood. The last 4 houses that sold the prices are still up. Most people that selling are holding onto them longer than they want but prices will eventually start moving back up. Yea you'll find a deal here and there.
Nobody on this message board can predict what it's really going to do or we all would have bought a bunch of houses in 2004. Long term it will still go up. Like I said keep waiting.

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by verobeach

If you see a house for sale that was built in 2005, don't expect the seller to sell it for anything less than what he paid for it.

I totally agree with you. We're looking at houses that are 5-25 years old and older in an established neighborhood. The newer homes have very little bedrooms outside of the master bedroom, but the older homes have nice sized bedrooms for everyone. Ideally, someone will eventually sell us a house for $200k or less with everything we're looking for (4 beds/2 bath, fenced in yard, 1800+ square feet, and an in-ground pool).

Realtors have given me this "you're out of your mind" look when I tell that what I expect. I give them the same look when they're trying to sell me a house that goes for $140 to $150 per square foot.

[33458]

Originally Posted by pslOldTimer

Where are you obtaining your numbers for Just Market Value? If they are from the county property appraiser's numbers, you should take them with a grain of salt. There are often vast differences between what the property appraiser says is Just Market Value and the actual market value of the property. For one thing, the property appraiser does not do a full appraisal on each property, just a curbside appraisal at best. They also leave out significant factors such as commissions and selling costs There are also political or personal variances in the values that any given property appraiser's office sets.

Market value is that value that is determined by a willing seller and a willing buyer. The most pure form of market value is determined by auction, assuming there is a valid cross-section of buyers at the auction.

The property appraiser's value should almost never be considered in any serious discussion of real market values.

I'm glad you brought this up - that is the disease in my 'older' development, where 10-15 year old, very lived-in homes are being appraised at $350,000-400,000 (because of the newer, wealthier developments nearby) but right now selling for 250,000-270,000. The brand new or updated homes are selling slightly higher.

A few years ago, yes, these houses went for stupid money and that was the time to sell.
(Our 1999 $124,000. was appraised in 2004-2005 around $379,000. Ridiculous.)

The same houses have been on the market for over a year (some more) with appraisal prices, slowly whittling down to something more reasonable.

I have no idea what we'll get when we put this house up for sale, but we will list realistically...we want to SELL the house, not juggle two mortgages.