Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (2014, how much)
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like I said, maybe I am wrong for the short term, but it doesn't matter because I will be living in and enjoying my new home and historically real estate has always been a good value, so I might suck wind for a few years, but in the end, many years down the road, either I or my heirs will at some point sell this house for a tidy profit.
Too many of you take this way too seriously, you guys act like you're ready to duke it out with anyone who refuses to share your views, lighten up, it's only money!
I wish you the best of luck with that purchase and enjoy.
I do not share your "relaxed" attitude about this. I take my money seriously and saying 'it's only" doesn't sit right for me, we worked extra jobs, and had a huge savings plan for the last five years to save this amount of money.
I read someplace the other day that someone didn't feel the same way about their money because it was gained through a real estate sale,it was not something they worked for so they didn't care if they lost it or not.
You can not just make a blanket statement about money being the same. If you worked for it and sacrificed for it losing it means a lot. If you say it doesn't, then here is my bank account and routing number you can make a deposit. Thanks.
sorry to disappoint you but I am just a simple shlub who is buying a house for myself and my family to enjoy, I'm not afraid to buy a house today (actually it will probably be tomorrow) and I have no super stats to offer, just my anecdotal experiences derived from my life experiences.
I've bought 2 houses in the past, in some of the worst real estate markets possible and I've never lost a penny, on my second house I am sitting on an almost 300% profit.
You're so stuck believing your view is the only right one that you can't accept that your conclusions might not be the only correct one.
maybe all your stats, charts, and expert opinions are right, but maybe they're not, who cares?
Remember all real estate is local and every location will not share the same characteristics, for example some desirable areas will maintain value regardless of what happens in other areas, and some less desirable areas that have been over built and over bought by speculators may never recover.
your theories might be right for wherever it is you are and my optimism might be misplaced, only time will tell, and lastly it's my money and I'll p*ss it away any way I please.
So... I guess you're not going to try to interpret the graphs?
So... I guess you're not going to try to interpret the graphs?
I really don't care what the data says, I made my living for many years trading markets a lot tougher than these, data be damned, data isn't the market, it might be reflecting what has happened but it doesn't always do as well predicting what the market will be in the future.
I have confidence in my purchase. I am buying in a solid community that is kind of like a bubble and the values will remain steady regardless of what the general market does, that said values might go down a bit, and I can live with that but I am buying a house that is priced right relative to where other houses are selling.
I've done my homework, made all the comps and what I am paying comps out below where similar homes in the immediate area have sold at in the past year up to a month ago and the house is not even double what it sold for in 2000, so even as suggested prices do retreat that far, I can deal with it
Like I keep saying, if someone finds a great place and can find a great house for a fair price they shouldn't wait to buy it, leave the speculation to the so called pros.
What I like the best about this site is everything here is permanently recorded. I will enjoy pulling this thread up in the fall time and we will then see who is really winning this debate.
I'll have the most egg on my face if it turns around that quickly!!!
Does anyone want to make a Fall 2007 prediction? 1. Will the housing slump see the "bottom" by Fall 2007 or has it not arrived? Predict the "bottom" arrival.
2. How do you think the new home and existing home inventories will fare by the Fall of 2007?
3. Will existing home owners remain firm in their asking prices or will they start dropping their prices a little bit more?
4. Will the economy fare better or will be still be heading toward a recession?
5. Where will the interest rates go? Up, down or remain the same?
I'll make the first attempt at it:
1. The bottom is no where in sight, IMO. The earliest sign of the "bottom" might be March 2008, but if inventories continue to climb, it'll be much later. Of course, according to the NAR's Lawrence Yun, the bottom hit in 5/2006 and has hit every month since then! LOL
2. There may be a small spike in overall sales in July and perhaps August, but nothing dramatic. More likely than not, the houses will continue to accumulate with the addition of failed ARMS and existing home owners being stubborn in their asking price, further bloating the market.
3. New home builders will continue to offer great deals, but existing home owners will still remain fairly firm in their asking price but are starting to crumble, knowing that not many people are going to be thinking about buying a house with Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner.
4. The Fed will eventually have to step in if the slump continues. There's a graph that indicates that after every housing boom, there is a recession. It's only a matter of time.
5. Interest rates will continue to climb through the summer, but as mentioned, the Fed will need to step in and drop the rates to increase the sales of homes to prevent the economy from going into an inevitable recession.
That's how I see it. The writing is on the wall for those who read it. I may be completely wrong, but I'd bet against it if I were a betting man.
PINELLAS PARK - From coast to coast, and one neighborhood to the next, many believe Florida’s property tax problem has reached crisis mode.
“People are leaving the state of Florida. They can’t afford to buy housing here,” said realtor Elieen Bedinghaus.
In Pinellas County at a town hall meeting, a jammed packed room, of mostly realtors, sounded off at a panel of state lawmakers. Many say local and state governments are partly to blame.
“The politicians don’t seem to realize it they are fiddling while Rome burns,” said Ric Cornelius. “It’s a lot of over spending they are estimating future taxes to be higher and they’re setting their budget accordingly and they’re spending a lot more money than they need to,” said realtor Rania Bahdouchi.
This comes just days before lawmakers will meet in a special session to cut city and county property taxes.
With the exception of Sarasota, exisiting home sales fell for a 17th consecutive month in April. Statewide home sales fell 26 percent, while Tampa Bay’s housing market decreased by 35 percent.
Some believe solutions should be implemented gradually.
“We need to cut back but we need to thoughtfully and planfully, maybe do a ten percent rollback,” said Town of Belleair commissioner Tom Shelly.
But others say it can’t come fast enough.
“They should roll back taxes I would probably say to 2001, 2002 and limit government spending,” said Bahdouchi.
Raising sales taxes one and a half percent for several years was another idea. IMO, I like this idea the best. That way, everybody, including the illegal immigrants, will pay taxes, not just the homeowners. It sucks to be penalized for buying a home.
“If something doesn’t happen soon I think Florida’s economy is in the garbage,” said Bahdouchi. That fear is causing Floridians to leave in large numbers.
Lawmakers will meet in a special session starting June 12th.
MyFox Tampa Bay | Realtors sound off at Florida lawmakers (http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/myfox/pages/News/Detail?contentId=3368305&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.2.1 - broken link)
Justice Dept., FTC Take On NAR
New Report Spells Out Anticompetitive Nature of Residential Real Estate Brokerage Industry
"After two years of hearings and studies, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and U.S. Department of Justice issued their joint report analyzing competition in the residential real estate brokerage industry last week and have concluded that homebuyers aren't well served by existing practices."
The report also puts the industry on notice that the two federal agencies are going to continue to monitor practices, take enforcement actions where necessary and press states to repeal laws favorable to brokerage firms but not to consumers."
Chiefsfan, so did it appear that the lawmakers were actually listening? They've GOT to realize that something is wrong when people are either leaving the state or going into foreclosure. But honestly now, what's more important to deal with? Oh yea, it was the cow-tipping law that was passed.
I'll have the most egg on my face if it turns around that quickly!!!
Does anyone want to make a Fall 2007 prediction? 1. Will the housing slump see the "bottom" by Fall 2007 or has it not arrived? Predict the "bottom" arrival.
2. How do you think the new home and existing home inventories will fare by the Fall of 2007?
3. Will existing home owners remain firm in their asking prices or will they start dropping their prices a little bit more?
4. Will the economy fare better or will be still be heading toward a recession?
5. Where will the interest rates go? Up, down or remain the same?
I'll make the first attempt at it:
1. The bottom is no where in sight, IMO. The earliest sign of the "bottom" might be March 2008, but if inventories continue to climb, it'll be much later. Of course, according to the NAR's Lawrence Yun, the bottom hit in 5/2006 and has hit every month since then! LOL
2. There may be a small spike in overall sales in July and perhaps August, but nothing dramatic. More likely than not, the houses will continue to accumulate with the addition of failed ARMS and existing home owners being stubborn in their asking price, further bloating the market.
3. New home builders will continue to offer great deals, but existing home owners will still remain fairly firm in their asking price but are starting to crumble, knowing that not many people are going to be thinking about buying a house with Thanksgiving and Christmas around the corner.
4. The Fed will eventually have to step in if the slump continues. There's a graph that indicates that after every housing boom, there is a recession. It's only a matter of time.
5. Interest rates will continue to climb through the summer, but as mentioned, the Fed will need to step in and drop the rates to increase the sales of homes to prevent the economy from going into an inevitable recession.
That's how I see it. The writing is on the wall for those who read it. I may be completely wrong, but I'd bet against it if I were a betting man.
I never said bottom for fall, I stated things are going to look different come the fall. I have predicted and will continue to say that:
1. FALL 2008 will be the bottom. I can not see homeowners holding on for any longer than that. Americans are to impatient and broke to drag this on for years.
2.The smart ones will reduce first and sell their homes for a decent reduction in the fall of 2007, some will call the bottom at this time but it will be a dead cat bounce.
3. Others will slowly reduce and chase the market all the way to the bottom.
4. Mass REO due to the huge amount of ARM's resetting this will lead to a recession.
5. Interest rates will go up to prevent inflation.
There will be another bubble of some other sort,seems like the only way to have an economy is to have bubbles. At this point the stock market is looking very bubbly. I don't think this one will last very long.
I never said bottom for fall, I stated things are going to look different come the fall. I have predicted and will continue to say that:
1. FALL 2008 will be the bottom. I can not see homeowners holding on for any longer than that. Americans are to impatient and broke to drag this on for years.
2.The smart ones will reduce first and sell their homes for a decent reduction in the fall of 2007, some will call the bottom at this time but it will be a dead cat bounce.
3. Others will slowly reduce and chase the market all the way to the bottom.
4. Mass REO due to the huge amount of ARM's resetting this will lead to a recession.
5. Interest rates will go up to prevent inflation.
There will be another bubble of some other sort,seems like the only way to have an economy is to have bubbles. At this point the stock market is looking very bubbly. I don't think this one will last very long.
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Thanks.
For those who still believe Realtors:
I see you have been reading the housingbubble.com
