[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by Primemax

For the Riverside area of California I see individual pockets of higher foreclosures and short sales than other areas. Some areas in my market are declining in price and others are still creeping up. I'am seeing more and more listings popin up on the market and advertised as "short sales".

Steve McGuffey

One thing to watch with alot of the short sales is how many actually have lender approval for the short sale.
There have been quite a few listed here as short sales and then we find out after viewing the home that they just have it listed for less than the current mortgage but have not gotten lender approval for the short sale.

[nychiefsfan]

More homes flooding the market:

Florida Foreclosures Increase 7 Percent in One Month - PR.com

and for possibly a good reason:
A recession is imminent - or maybe it isn't: UA experts beg to differ | www.tucsoncitizen.com ®

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

One thing to watch with alot of the short sales is how many actually have lender approval for the short sale.
There have been quite a few listed here as short sales and then we find out after viewing the home that they just have it listed for less than the current mortgage but have not gotten lender approval for the short sale.

How short will the short sales be ? I think the markets taking on water fast ! “‘For Rent’ signs litter lawns in almost every Southwest Florida neighborhood. The apartment and home rental vacancy rate is at nearly 10 percent because of the mass exodus of construction and service sector workers from the area. Instead of lowering rents, some landlords are simply getting out of the business.”

[SKB]

It is my understanding that a short sale is usually done under some sort of hard ship conditions. I don't think being simply underwater would qualify without some extenuating circumstances.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by SKB

It is my understanding that a short sale is usually done under some sort of hard ship conditions. I don't think being simply underwater would qualify without some extenuating circumstances.

It is but most of the buyers are looking to resell fast.

[Baja Boomer]

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

i think the house market did just crash and is burning all the way to the bottom,like someone else stated look down the block and see how many houses are for sale,(tell me about it)10 houses down my block within a half mile..another indicator seems to be the free home shopper guides looking more like phone books than magazines......

David Lereah served as the National Association of Realtors' spokesman on economic forecasts, interest rates, home sales, mortgage rates, as well as other economic and policy issues and trends affecting the housing markets and real estate industry in the U.S. and abroad.

While some of us were pointing at a bubble and trying to warn people, Lereah was saying "No bubble! No worries! Buy now!"

When signs of the bubble starting to deflate began to appear he said "No bubble bursting! No worries! Buy now!"

When it became very clear that real estate was in trouble he said "We're just experiencing a little slow down, things are going back to normal, everything will be OK, no worries, Buy Now."

That was his version of "Who're you going to believe, me or your lying eyes?"

He kept that up right up to the time (in March) that he quit to go to another job. Know what he told The Chicago Tribune in May, when he no longer had a vested interest in pumping real estate? He said, "We're in a real estate recession."

I'm just saying that when you listen to someone with a vested interest in any business, you must take it with a grain of salt. The market has crashed, has not come anywhere near bottom yet, it's global-- and is beginning to affect the economy as a whole.

I suggest everyone read this article from Feb. 2006 called "The Red Queen's Race". It's very good.

My advice: Believe your lying eyes.

[kelly3120]

I am and I say we are on our way up!

up up and away!

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by Baja Boomer

David Lereah kept that up right up to the time (in March) that he quit to go to another job. Know what he told The Chicago Tribune in May, when he no longer had a vested interest in pumping real estate? He said, "We're in a real estate recession."

Lawrence Yun picked up where Lereah left off:

5/25/06 “This may be the bottom. It appears May is a little better.” David Lereah

Moderator cut: Provide a link instead of copying everything here, please

[nychiefsfan]

Realtors' economist stayed sunny all year
Commentary: David Lereah saw bottom in first quarter, second quarter ...
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - There are two universal truths at the National Association of Realtors:

1) It's always a good time to buy or sell a home; and
2) We've seen the worst of the housing market correction.

The second truth was in the script used throughout 2006 by David Lereah, chief economist for the NAR, even as sales plunged by 8.4%, the fastest decline in 17 years. See full story.

With annual sales of 6.48 million, 2006 was the third best ever, but after five years of steady increases, it was a rough year for the industry. Through it all, Lereah never stopped smiling.

At the beginning of 2006, Lereah was projecting home sales would fall about 4.4% to 6.79 million. In the end, however, the decline was about double what he'd projected. For 2007, Lereah is currently projecting a decline of about 0.9% to 6.42 million.

Here's what Lereah was saying throughout 2006 and into 2007, and what the market was doing.

January 2006
Lereah's forecast: "The market is in the process of normalization."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 12.6% to 6.94 million annualized.
Lereah's post-mortem: "The level of home sales activity is now at a sustainable level, and is likely to pick up a bit in the months ahead."

April 2006
Lereah's forecast: "Home sales will move up and down somewhat over the remainder of the year but stay at a high plateau."
Actual sales: First-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 8.6% to 6.79 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "This is additional evidence that we're experiencing a soft landing."

July 2006
Lereah's forecast: "The market should even out just below present levels."
Actual sales: Second-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 6% to 6.69 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "The market is stabilizing."

October 2006
Lereah's forecast: "We expect sales activity to pick up early next year."
Actual sales: Third-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 22.2% to 6.28 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "This is likely the trough in sales."

January 2007
Lereah's forecast: "The good news is that the steady improvement in sales will support price appreciation moving forward."
Actual sales: Fourth-quarter sales fell at an annual rate of 2.3% to 6.24 million.
Lereah's post-mortem: "It appears we have established a bottom."

Conclusion
It's unfair, of course, to single out Lereah's forecasts. He wasn't the only economist who was surprised by the extent of the collapse in housing in 2006; some were just as wrong on the other side by predicting the housing bust would bring down the whole economy.

But Lereah was the only one who presented his opinions alongside an economic indicator that's treated as an objective gauge of the housing market. Along with his bully pulpit comes extra scrutiny.

Lereah was traveling on Thursday and unavailable to comment. The senior economist at the NAR, Lawrence Yun, said in an interview the most recent sales trends show almost no movement up or down since August or September.

"In hindsight, we did not anticipate how strong the demand from speculators had been," Yun said of their 2006 forecast. "Now, with the speculators out of the market, and with low mortgage rates and steady job growth, we anticipate an improvement in sales."

It's possible that Lereah may be right, finally. The bottom must come some time, why not now, some 19 months after the bubble peaked?

But it's also possible we could be far from the bottom, as in the housing bust of 1978-1982, when it took 42 months for the market to recover.

If so, it could be a long year for David Lereah.

Commentary: Realtors' economist stayed sunny all year - MarketWatch

[nychiefsfan]

More on Lereah:

Realty Check: Real estate wrongs and rights
By Richard Courtney, columnist
June 01, 2007

Downtown Memphis offers 10,000 condominium units. Charlotte has 14,000 units.

In contrast, Nashville has fewer than 500 with only another 2,500 under construction. If the Sommet Center were converted to condos, several thousand units could bolster the figure. But no one is considering such a radical move.

All this is to note that Nashville’s real estate market offers significant and healthy room to grow.

When home sales rise, prices do too. Even when some listings are reduced, the prices remain higher than those owners originally paid by more than 3 percent per year appreciation. So, a house bought for $300,000 in 2001 may sell for $375,000 in 2007. If it is listed for $400,000, then dropped to $389,000, then sold for $375,000 that does not imply that the market is weak. Conversely, if the house lists for $365,000 and sells for $375,000, that means nothing either. (On an unrelated note, if a hockey team sells for $213 million, it means that Blackberries are overpriced. But, the National Hockey League is not concerned with electronic devices.)

Despite cries of doom, the national housing market is faring well enough. For example, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal have reported that home sales are up 16 percent nationally and 26 percent in the South.

The former chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is a brilliant man named David Lereah, who holds a Ph.D. from Harvard. While with NAR, Lereah said last November that the housing market had contracted and would be expanding.

Now, get this. Lereah quits his job at NAR, goes on National Public Radio and contends the market is in the tank and that, previously, he had been spinning for NAR members. Then, of all darn things, the national media decides that the market is healthy. So, Lereah was right, then he was wrong. But he was wrong last month for being right in his November predictions, which he now says were wrong. Baffling.

Critics go bananas when I write the market doesn’t stink, arguing I am biased. Yet, the local market is healthy. And since all real estate is local — the title of Lereah’s newest book, in fact, is All Real Estate is Local — everything is wonderful. Perception is reality — as well as realty. And this is Realty Check after all.

Want proof of this health? More than 100 Velocity units sold in the first week of their offering. Wonder how many of those units were bought by dreaded “speculators”? Sadly, there are those who think if you invest in real estate in hopes of selling at a higher price at a later date, you are friends of Satan.

Must be many evil folks out there.

The City Paper - Smart, Fast, Free (broken link)