Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (Jacksonville: real estate, property taxes)

[kort677]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

You know, as well as I do, that the homes are severely overpriced. I'm not opposed to paying market value for a house.

I don't think that you have a firm grasp on what determines market value, I can be sure of one thing, you're demanding that prices return to a level that you find acceptable is foolish and probably will never happen
The thing that determines market value is quite simple, it is the point where a seller will sell and a buyer will buy. And all the hysteria you are trying to introduce over what you believe is the proper value has no meaning in the equation

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

One of the houses I'm tracking was bought in 1991 for $108k. It has a Just Market Value of $203k and is on the market for $287k. Its idiots like this that are so greedy, in thinking their house has appreciated $179k in 16 years, that there's such a glut in the market. If the house was being sold at market value, I might consider it. Apparently, the seller must think there's a moron out there dumb enough to overpay that much for his home.

You're going to look real silly when in a few years that house has sold and you're once again locked out of the housing game and still posting nonsense to forums like this

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

There are too many houses on the market for the price of houses to rise. That won't happen anytime soon in the Tampa area, and I'd bet just about everything I own on it, if I were a betting man.

you are betting, by not stepping up and buying you've placed your bet, and only time will tell if you've won or lost.

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

MY PREDICTION: This slump will take its toll on the existing home market, due to:
1. the increasing amount of preforeclosures, foreclosures and REO's.
2. new home builders slashing their prices
3. lowering of the comparable market value due to foreclosures.
4. Interest rates jumping to 6.74%

If you see this as a sign of the RE market improving, then you may be Lawrence Yun in disguise.

and once again you have the blinders on, all real estate is local, and maybe at the low end of the pool in your area things like you claim will happen might be correct, but in many other places your myopic theories don't hold water.
In many places in FLA, like Orlando, Miami, Jacksonville, prices have held steady and even gone up through this bad market, how would you explain it?

good luck and I hope you are able to live your dreams

[Audacious]

Here is a link that everyone on this thread should go to. It is a petition to get REAL tax reform on the ballot this year.

Property Tax Reform Now


The rest is up to you

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by kort677

I don't think that you have a firm grasp on what determines market value, I can be sure of one thing, you're demanding that prices return to a level that you find acceptable is foolish and probably will never happen

You have your beliefs, I have mine, yet I won't resort to calling your beliefs foolish. Market value, accoriding to most realtors, is what similar houses are comping at in the past 6 months. It has nothing to do with what the property appraiser says is just market value. You can live with that definition if you want. Because the prices are dropping, and the foreclosures will add to the negative comp value, why buy now? In my opinion, it would be "foolish" to buy an overpriced home during a housing slump.

Originally Posted by kort677

The thing that determines market value is quite simple, it is the point where a seller will sell and a buyer will buy.

According to the statistics, it doesn't look like the seller and buyers are on the same page. Why is that, kort?

Originally Posted by kort677

You're going to look real silly when in a few years that house has sold and you're once again locked out of the housing game and still posting nonsense to forums like this

And I'd look even sillier if I bought that house right now. There's a sucker in every game. If you don't know who the sucker is, then it's you. I'm not the sucker to buy that overpriced house.

Originally Posted by kort677

you are betting, by not stepping up and buying you've placed your bet, and only time will tell if you've won or lost.

I haven't lost by a long shot, my friend.

Originally Posted by kort677

and once again you have the blinders on, all real estate is local, and maybe at the low end of the pool in your area things like you claim will happen might be correct, but in many other places your myopic theories don't hold water.

Perhaps your hyperopia is the problem? Some people can't see the forest for the trees. I'm totally relying on what's going on right now. My statistics repeatedly convey that now is not the time to buy.

I'm glad I don't live in a world of panic, because I'm totally alright with renting until the prices come down. If I miss the boat, then so be it. My world doesn't end.

In this month's Money magazine, it lists the signs of "when is it the right time to buy". Those signs aren't even anywhere in sight.

Originally Posted by kort677

good luck and I hope you are able to live your dreams

amidst your sarcasm, thank you.

[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

You know, as well as I do, that the homes are severely overpriced. I'm not opposed to paying market value for a house.

One of the houses I'm tracking was bought in 1991 for $108k. It has a Just Market Value of $203k and is on the market for $287k. Its idiots like this that are so greedy, in thinking their house has appreciated $179k in 16 years, that there's such a glut in the market. If the house was being sold at market value, I might consider it. Apparently, the seller must think there's a moron out there dumb enough to overpay that much for his home.

There are too many houses on the market for the price of houses to rise. That won't happen anytime soon in the Tampa area, and I'd bet just about everything I own on it, if I were a betting man.

MY PREDICTION: This slump will take its toll on the existing home market, due to:
1. the increasing amount of preforeclosures, foreclosures and REO's.
2. new home builders slashing their prices
3. lowering of the comparable market value due to foreclosures.
4. Interest rates jumping to 6.74%

If you see this as a sign of the RE market improving, then you may be Lawrence Yun in disguise.

No, I don't believe homes are severely overpriced. While some areas homes may come down in price somewhat I don't believe you will see anywhere near the reductions you are looking for. You will still be standing on the sidelines waiting for your price.

Now, since you have been railing against Realtors, lets see who has the most to gain in these scenarios.

Lets say a certain type home is selling for $300,000 but because of the price I only sell 2 a year. At 3% I would make $18,000.
If those same homes were at $200,000 I might be able to sell 10 a year. This would make me $60,000.
You on the other hand, looking for that type home would benefit to the tune of $100,000 as a buyer.

Seems to me you stand to gain quite a bit if the prices come crashing down and the constant barage on this board show your intention.
I understand we each have our own views and have every right to express them but there is a difference between expressing our own views and posting here to do your little part to keep the market down for your own personal gain. You of course have every right to do this but don't try to make it seem as if you are doing it for the masses when you are really looking out for yourself.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

You have your beliefs, I have mine, yet I won't resort to calling your beliefs foolish. Market value, accoriding to most realtors, is what similar houses are comping at in the past 6 months. It has nothing to do with what the property appraiser says is just market value.

ok now try and read for comprehension, Market value is determined by what a buyer is willing pay for a home and a price that seller is willing to sell the home for. No agents, no appraisers, just buyers and sellers.

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

According to the statistics, it doesn't look like the seller and buyers are on the same page. Why is that, kort?

what are you trying to say? are you implying that there are no house sales anywhere? If so, you're quite out of touch with reality. Nobody is claiming that sales are at the levels of 2 years ago, but believe it or not people are still buying and selling homes, yesterday, today and tomorrow. and here's a lesson for you, when a transaction occurs, that's the market value of that home.

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

And I'd look even sillier if I bought that house right now. There's a sucker in every game. If you don't know who the sucker is, then it's you. I'm not the sucker to buy that overpriced house.

here's some math for you to ponder, at the low end of the market, where it seems you're at, the difference in the cost of a home priced at 175k or one priced at 150k k is around $20-$40 a month if using a 30 year mortgage, all your hyperventilating over such a minor amount of money is asinine!
If you think you're going to see 1990 prices again, good luck!

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

I haven't lost by a long shot, my friend.

again, you need to read for comprehension, I didn't say you lost,
you stated you aren't a betting man, I pointed out that by remaining on the sidelines you are indeed making a bet that prices will go even lower, and I finished by saying ONLY TIME WILL TELL if you'll win the bet of not.

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

Perhaps your hyperopia is the problem? Some people can't see the forest for the trees. I'm totally relying on what's going on right now. My statistics repeatedly convey that now is not the time to buy.

maybe it is and maybe it isn't, but one thing is certain, when it is time to buy you will have missed it, and like I've shown by example earlier, the amount of money involved is minuscule, so by holding out and trying to time the market and squeeze every last penny out of it is a fools game. If you bought a house today, in addition to the long term gains you'll enjoy you'll also be in a home you like and enjoying that home, doesn't that have any value to you?

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

I'm glad I don't live in a world of panic, because I'm totally alright with renting until the prices come down. If I miss the boat, then so be it. My world doesn't end.

and every month you rent you're paying someone else's mortgage instead of your own.

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

In this month's Money magazine, it lists the signs of "when is it the right time to buy". Those signs aren't even anywhere in sight.

I was a trader on the floor of the exchange for 30 years, once someone asked me about my sources of info, they asked do I use the Wall street journal? I replied that I never read newspapers to get my research because by the time a story reaches the media it is stale news, and by the time money magazine or any other economist or pundit declares that the slump is over you can be assured that the bottom was many months earlier.

This isn't an insult, but believe me, you are not smart enough to micromanage or outsmart the market.

[SKB]

June 20 (Bloomberg) --


"The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.
The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''



Read on:

Bloomberg.com: U.S.

[gypsychic]

Well, I've been staying out of this thread lately, since it is going back and forth between a few here. For me personally, I always study the real estate MARKETS I AM INTERESTED IN. It doesn't matter to me what is happening elsewhere. And I do a lot of research. My research tells me it is time to buy in the area I want, and I have nothing to gain by waiting. I will be selling my house in Dade City, and the market is slower here than it was two years ago, but you know what - it is back to where it was before the boom, not any kind of crash at all. And development is going strong here. Same deal for the market we are buying in (Lakeland) which by the way was one of the few areas in Florida that showed an increase in appreciation last year, and are still among the lowest prices in the state all the way around.

We also bought a vacation home in Asheville, NC in 2005 at the tail end of the boom, just when that area started to really take off. Asheville was in the top 10 cities in the country for appreciation last year (13%), so we timed that one right, also.

Bottom line, you just can't paint everything with such a broad brush - sure, I agree that some areas of Florida are still "overvalued" and have a glut of overpriced real estate (especially condos) right now. But many areas are quite healthy and doing just fine. Also, I don't think ANY area of Florida is ever going back to prices of the 90's - there are just still way too many people who want to live here, who come here from other areas of the country where real estate costs much more than even our "overvalued" areas, and think this looks like a bargain. Anyone who really wants to buy should go ahead and find what they want at a price they are willing to pay; no one should pay a price they aren't comfortable with. We would have loved to live in California, but those prices will NEVER be in line with what we would be willing to pay (or be able to pay). I still think that Florida offers a great value in many areas of the state, especially compared with some other states.

This is, of course, my own personal opinion on the situation as it applies to my husband and me. I wish all of you luck in your purchases and investments.

[kort677]

Originally Posted by SKB

June 20 (Bloomberg) --


"The worst is yet to come for the U.S. housing market.
The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by more than a half a percentage point to 6.74 percent in the past five weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers. The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, according to the National Association of Realtors.
``It's a blood bath,'' said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., the manager of $668 billion in bond funds. ``We're talking about a two- to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence. Eventually it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''



Read on:

Bloomberg.com: U.S.

and chicken little said the sky is falling, so what?

[JimKing]

Chicken little had no proof the sky was falling.

We have overpriced real estate, record high gas prices, record consumer and government debt, record and growing inventory, rents 1/2 the cost of buying, record property taxes, record insurance costs, other states stepping up their baby boomer targeting, the first decrease in school aged children in Florida history...

I think we have a little more to go on than chicken little did.

[rstate]

People think that because they've read some articles that they're now real estate experts.. same thing happened with the stock market. When the market was booming, everyone thought they were stock mkt experts. Then, when the mkt crashed, the people predicting a bubble for 3 yrs came out and said "I told you", but they were off by 3 yrs and totally missed all of the gains. These were the so- called experts. The same thing with real estate. The experts aren't even close to accurate (or can agree) with the timing of the real estate market. Plus real estate is more local which makes it more difficult than the stock market. Not to be rude, but if they can't accurately predict the highs and lows of the market, why do you think you can? Throwing out numbers like 25 or 50% declines doesn't really mean anything. If people want to have a intellectual discussion about different areas in Florida using real data, let's do it.... or everyone can just continue to make bubble number predictions.