[lostbuyer]

Also, there are people who think now is the time to jump in so they end paying only 10% less than what these places listed for originally.”
once these buyers are out of the market prices will continue freefalling........

[nychiefsfan]

Great read, thanks!

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

“‘Create a maximum bid sheet for every property,’ McGee advises. ‘Walk when it goes over your top price. Do not get personally connected to any house. There is no reason to get caught up in a bidding frenzy.’”

^^^^ good advice if anyone plans on attending one of there auctions.

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

You also forgot to mention the auctioneer’s bidding to rig the price higher, and the bidding shills who pose as genuine bidders.”

That would never happen

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

“When will the lenders get serious about selling their ever-growing collection of REO’s. In my neck of the woods, Southwest FL, they’re no better than the most clueless civilian sellers with their ‘wishing’ prices.”

That's the truth. My wife and I looked at several REO houses where the bank has them priced higher than just market value. Let 'em sit on 'em for a while and see how long it takes for them to drop their prices, after more and more of their ARM's go into foreclosure.

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

reserves or shills or seller has the right to accept or refuse the high bid

That would be total BS, if it's true

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

The on-line rules allow the auctioneer to bid against me, up to the seller’s undisclosed reserve price. This is clearly a Shill Auction and the opening bid prices are truly meaningless false advertising.

If the seller didn't have the right to refuse the bid, and the shill wins the bid, that "winning price" would have to be recorded thru the local Property Assessor. Of course, the shill could find a kajillion reasons why the bid "fell thru". These auctions seem pretty rigged to me after reading that article.

Originally Posted by lostbuyer

Also, there are people who think now is the time to jump in so they end paying only 10% less than what these places listed for originally.”
once these buyers are out of the market prices will continue freefalling........

There's already a ton of homes out there that could be auctioned, with plenty more coming. I doubt that this will affect the market very much.

[nychiefsfan]

More headaches ahead for the housing industry?

Sunday, June 24, 2007
BOSTON — The worst may be yet to come for the U.S. housing market, according to many economists who have been watching the extended slide.
The jump in 30-year mortgage rates by half a percentage point to 6.69 percent in the past six weeks is putting a crimp on borrowers with the best credit, just as a crackdown in subprime lending standards limits the pool of qualified buyers.

The national median home price is poised for its first annual decline since the Great Depression, and the supply of unsold homes is at a record 4.2 million, the National Association of Realtors reported.

"We're talking about a two to three-year downturn that will take a whole host of characters with it, from job creation to consumer confidence," said Mark Kiesel, executive vice president of Pacific Investment Management Co., which manages $668 billion in bond funds. "Eventually, it will take the stock market and corporate profit.''

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders fell in June to the lowest since February 1991, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo index released this week. Housing starts declined in May for the first time in four months, the Commerce Department reported. New-home sales will decline 33 percent from 2005's peak to the end of this year, according to the Realtors' group, exceeding the 25 percent three-year drop in 1991 that helped spark a recession.

"It's not just a housing recession anymore; it looks more and more like an economic recession,'' said Nouriel Roubini, a Clinton administration Treasury Department director and economic adviser who now runs Roubini Global Economics in New York.

The picture looks considerably different in Central Texas, where the home market is solid and prices continue to rise. But many other cities are seeing sharp drop in home sales.

There are some important dissenters to the gloomy outlook school of thought.

Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson acknowledged last week that the housing downturn "has been a drag on the economy." But he added: "I do believe that we are at or near the bottom.'' (sounds like Lawrence Yun and David Lereah with nothing tangible to back it up)

And Bank of America Corp. chief executive Kenneth Lewis declared that the housing slump is almost over. "The drag stops in the next few months,'' Lewis said. (based on what?) "We do not see a recession. Because that drag stops, you'll see the economy begin to pick up in the third and fourth quarters.'' (because "that drag stops?" nice reasoning)

But the pain is real and widespread.

Homebuilding stocks are down 20 percent this year after falling 20 percent in 2006, according to the Standard & Poor's Supercomposite Homebuilding Index of 16 companies.

Before last year, the index had gained sixfold in five years.

"There isn't a recovery about to happen,'' said Ara Hovnanian, chief executive of home builder Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. The company's share price has fallen 38 percent in the past year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest securities firm, and Bear Stearns Cos., the largest underwriter of mortgage-backed securities, blamed rising foreclosures for their falling profits.

David Viniar, Goldman's chief financial officer, said the troubles in the subprime mortgage market have yet to be fully felt by the investment banks, insurance companies, pension funds and asset-management firms that hold mortgage-backed securities.

Subprime mortgages, given to people with bad or limited credit histories, account for about $800 billion of that market.

"I continue to believe that we haven't seen the bottom in the subprime market,'' Viniar said in a June 14 conference call. "There will be more pain felt by people as that works through the system.''

Rising mortgage rates are prolonging the pain for the housing industry and for buyers.

The average U.S. rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.69 percent last week, up from 6.15 percent at the beginning of May, according to Freddie Mac.

The recent increase in mortgage rates is the biggest spike since 2004. The change means buyers can afford 8 percent less house than they could five weeks ago, said Kiesel of PIMCO.

Most economists don't expect rates to fall anytime soon, which means no relief for homebuyers.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, a benchmark for mortgage rates, is at 5.14 percent, up almost a half-percent since the beginning of the year.
Higher mortgage rates make it harder for people to qualify for loans, or to buy as much house as they would like. And with lenders tightening their standards, many buyers will be priced out of the market, economists say.
Roubini predicts the decline in home sales will last at least another 12 months, reducing the median house price by 5 percent this year and next. That would take home prices back to 2004, when the national median was $195,200.

The primary cause of the 1990 to 1991 recession was a real estate boom and bust similar to the past seven years, Roubinis said.

He put the chance of a recession this year at 50-50, above former Fed chief Greenspan's 33 percent estimate.

"There is no doubt there is a slowdown going on in the U.S.,'' Greenspan said at a conference last month. "We are clearly having troubles in the capital investment area, as well as potentially in the consumption area and obviously housing being a significant drag.''

Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse Holdings USA Inc., says that home sales won't increase in any sustained way until 2008, though the stumble probably won't cause a recession because the housing market hasn't reduced consumer spending.

"Here we are, a year and a half into the housing slowdown, and retail sales are off the chart,'' Soss said. The economy expanded at a 1.9 percent pace in the first quarter, compared with a year earlier, the smallest gain since the 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter of 2003, "but it hasn't collapsed, and I don't think it will,'' he said.

More headaches ahead for the housing industry? (broken link)

[nychiefsfan]

A HEAVY WEEK FOR ECONOMIC DATA

On Monday, the National Association of Realtors reports on existing home sales. The market expects the data to show a rise of 5.97 million in May, a similar increase to April's 5.99 million. (how is this a rise when it's down from the previous month and significantly down from last year's poor numbers?)

Tuesday, the Conference Board issues its June consumer confidence index. The market predicts the index will slip to 105.3 from 108.0 in May.

Also Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases data on new home sales, which analysts expect to have gained by 920,000 units in May, slightly less than April's rise of 981,000.

The Commerce Department reports Wednesday on orders of durable goods. Analysts predict that May durable goods will have fallen 1.0 percent after rising 0.8 percent in April.

On Thursday, the Commerce Department releases its final reading on first-quarter gross domestic product, which the market expects to come in at 0.6 percent, the same as the estimate made in May.

In addition to the personal spending data on Friday, investors will be watching for the Chicago Purchasing Managers' index, a precursor to the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index. The market forecasts a decline in the June index to 58.0 from 61.7 in May.

Also Friday, the University of Michigan releases its revised June sentiment index, which is expected to show a slight uptick.

News Channel 7, Upstate South Carolina - National

Now's a good time to buy a house...

[nychiefsfan]

It's interesting checking out the seasonally adjusted numbers versus that actual numbers.

Last month, there were 514,000 actual single family homes sold versus 560,000 in April 2006. In May 2006, there were 642,000 homes sold.

It'll be interesting to see the actual and how long it takes the NAR to re-adjust the "seasonally adjusted total".

NAR: Research: EHS Data

[info please]

I can't get enough of the most honest realtor on the tampa board. It's sooooooooooo refreshing.

[mlamarredesigns]

Hello:
I hope the predictions are right, I want to get a house as well.
Maggie

[info please]

Maggie go over to the Tampa board and read the posts

[Mike Peterson]

Originally Posted by info please

I can't get enough of the most honest realtor on the tampa board. It's sooooooooooo refreshing.

The correct statement here would be, "I can't get enough of the realtor who thinks the same way I do, on the Tampa board.

[lostbuyer]

read the first article on top....Doctor Housing Bubble - How I Learned to Love Southern California and Forget the Housing Bubble