Housing Bubble Popped but why aren't the prices reflecting it? (Jacksonville: real estate, condos)

[lostbuyer]

what about builders? has anyone thought about them ?not only dumping the houses their holding now for cheap...but actually having to build very economic housing in order to keep their employees working...if that happens it will push prices even lower.....in my town theres got to be at least 5 sub-divisions that never got built....just paved the roads and left it...so it makes sense that they would try to recoup some of the losses...some profit is better than no profit..what do you guys think??

[hiknapster]

lostbuyer: You are right. They have gone to things are not so bad...in fact they are looking up.

Florida1 (I think I recognize you ): How do you get things aren't so bad in Fort Myers. Your paper is reporting today"

Sales of existing single-family homes in Lee County were down 42 percent in May compared to a year ago, according to figures released today by the Florida Associated of Realtors.

I think this part is down-right hilarious:

Complete information for Collier County was not available because the Naples Area Board of Realtors no longer reports its statistics to the state association.

I wonder about one thing, though. These numbers are being reported by the National Association of Realtors. I wonder what the number would be if it was reported by someone else.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I'm waiting for the July 25 figures for June.

[UKOK]

Does anybody have Florida sales numbers broken out by county? I am interested to see how Sarasota did compared to April. Thanks.

[JimKing]

How is any buyer being greedy? Housing prices ran up way more than wages did, insurance went up more than wages, taxes went up crazy amounts.

Wanting to pay 33-36% of income for housing is not being greedy. And people getting themselves into financial hot water with exotic mortgages, buying way more house than they could afford, is not any reason for the next buyer to jump into the sinking ship with them.

This entire housing run up was built on zero fundamentals and is bad for Florida. Prices returning to realistic levels is healthy, and yes, some people will lose out along the way. That is life.

There is not one long term holder of real estate that would lose out by selling at a reasonable price. Many bought for $100,000 20 years ago and are trying to get $400,000 for a house worth $200,000.

[nychiefsfan]

Mike Larson, real estate analyst with Weiss Research, said, "We have all the ingredients there for the market to get worse -- scared potential buyers, tighter supply of financing, mortgages going higher, along with historically high inventory. Whether it's a nasty spiral or a slow bleed depends on the state of the economy. But prices are going to have to fall further to move these homes and get rid of this Everest-size glut of homes on the market."

The decline in prices compared to a year earlier was widespread in this report, with only the Northeast reporting a modest 0.5 percent rise in home prices year over-year-year. The South, the region that has almost 40 percent of the home sales volume nationwide, saw a 3.8 percent price decline compared to May 2006.

The glut of homes for sale on the market rose 5 percent from April to 4.4 million homes, leaving an 8.9-month supply of homes for sale on the market. The last time the group estimated that many months of inventory for sale was June 1992.

The number of homes for sale is now 23 percent above year-ago levels, while the months' supply, based on the sales pace and the inventory, is nearly 40 percent above a year earlier.

Weakest*housing sales since 2003 hits home values - Jun. 25, 2007

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by nychiefsfan

Thanks...peace??? LOL

Hillsborough County remains one of the higher overvalued counties in FL, which makes it that much more frustrating waiting on the sidelines. If the prices dropped to the early to mid 2004 prices here, then I'd probably have a house by now.

LOL Oh....all right


For as intuitive as we both appear to be approaching this from different viewpoints I almost think there is somewhat of a fiduciary obligation to be as straight as we can re the RE market. Look at the number of people reading this thread vs. the number of people who participate. Something in the order of 10,000 to 1 !


I recieved many PM's of support for my position/viewpoint as I'm sure you have as well and now it turns out that we basically agree! Yikes I can't believe I said that again to the "chief"


How about we address this thing on a few levels. Lets have a caveat/header/warning/label to our posts as follows. The national market, the state level, county level and then each market area. I believe we can provide a wealth of information, as well as others, to the 10,000 people who are reading this thread and looking for insight.

Think about it. If the "chief" and Audacious agree on something then I would think it a fair assumption to believe "IT'S CARVED IN STONE"

Up to you my most worthy adversary.

[info please]

You are 100% right There will alway's be winners and losers that's life. I feel the market was built on sand no foundation and now it is sinking .

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by kort677

this says it all, what team is it? the gloom and doomers, I feel sorry for you, and by the way look up 32082

I'm not sure about 32082, but the Orlando area took a beating last month, down 40% in sales:

Orlando 1,729 2,898 -40%

Florida's Existing Home Sales, Median Price Down in May 2007

[nychiefsfan]

Originally Posted by JimKing

Patience nychiefs....unfortunately this will take a long time to come down. If you look at Credit Suisse's Adjustable Rate Mortgage Reset Schedule available on many websites, you will see the majority of mortgages have not even reset yet. Momentum in price decreases will pick up eventually.

A year from now will be the time to buy again in some markets....but it might be more like 3 in other markets, depending on how long people stay delusional.

1-3 years is not a long wait to save a ton of money on a house.

I totally agree, brother!

[Audacious]

Originally Posted by florida1

The average price in Lee County has been increasing since February. We are actually on par with last year's prices at this time and they are still slowly increasing. Now areas within the county, such as Cape Coral, are still experiencing decreases. This is a totally subjective issue and therefor hard to judge. Being in my area, I would say prices are likely to start increasing again in the not so distant future. Maybe someone in a more hard hit area would disagree with me.

As mentioned before, each market is an entity onto itself.