[Shores9]

Muggy

Boy you’re really are down on real estate.

I suppose next thing you’ll have us believing is that all real estate is going up in smoke, the banks are a bunch of gators waiting to take a bit out of our butts and all realtors are mindless drones lead by a chief economist who’s head is in a bubble

Hum - I might have to agree the bubble head thing

[Muggy]

Bay's home boom suddenly bellyup

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/11/19/Ta...om_sudde.shtml

[MrTudo]

Anyone see the news today about 38 states, on yahoo titled: Home sales plummet in 38 states in 3Q



Now where can we get a list of those states?

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Bay's home boom suddenly bellyup

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/11/19/Ta...om_sudde.shtml

Muggy

Please – I mean Please. Like many papers around the country the St Pete times is in financial distress and will do anything to grab your attention and .50 cents.

This is just the kind of story that is intentionally produced to be sensational – a headline grabber on the most popular subject of the day. Great journalism- NOT?? Its C ***!!

It hurts people more than helps them. It masquerades as a legitimate story using one paragraph of inaccurate/skewed home sales statistics and the rest on Fools who got involved in something they had NO BUSINESS being in. In fact the only value this story has is to say don’t get involved in what you don’t know PERIOD.

You are clearly smarter than this so why do you post it?

It's a bubble story by a paper in a Bubble using Bubble math and Bubblelogic. It should have been titled “Idiots that caused the real estate problem” or “Fools that lost money in Real estate”

Explain this from the story if you can:

They say that Year to year housing prices in the Tampa Bay area show small increases but then say that somehow because of the unsold inventory of homes and so comparatively few buyers, most housing prices have actually retreated 5 to 15 percent. Retreated from what??? What is the bubblelogic here? Their analysis (Seems like spiked Kool-Aid is not exclusive to real estate chief economists) uses 200 neighborhoods out of thousands in those counties. Sounds like creative/selective samplings to support their argument.

Then they go on to the sob story of Mr. & Mrs Roberts and others. The Roberts are crying hunger with 2 loaves of bread under their arms. They live in a half million dollar plus home own 3 other sub 200k units and what’s not mentioned in the article is they own a Half Million dollar piece of vacant waterfront property that can if they sold could pay off the mortgages on other 3.

Do you really believe this story? - I really thought you were smarter than that!!

These are the Public records on the Roberts, I’m sure the rest of those quoted in the article tell a similar story:

4439 Reeves Rd New Port Richey, FL single Family 2145 sq ft – purchased 10/17/05 fro $445,000 - Homesteaded Their Primary residence

10359 Carrollwood Ln #158 Tampa, FL Condominium 934sq ft purchased 12/05 for $160,900

3100 Shipwatch Dr. Holiday, FL single Family 1976 sq ft – purchased4/17/06for $269,000

4417 Seneca Ct New Port Richey, FL Single family Waterfront 1484 sq ft - purchased 2/13/06 for $184,900

No Physical address BAILEY'S BLUFF ESTATES UNIT NO 1 PB 4 PG 89 LOT 6 New Port Richey, FL – State Land Use Code: Unnimproved Vacant Residential- Waterfront - - purchased- 04/13/2004 for $277,500 Current Value $500K+

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

I saw the Robet's story as if they are feeling their Housing Hang-Over... IMOP, I only read that they can not afford all that they bought (more than they could handle in the long haul. Homes potentially going into foreclosure??), kind of like a kid in a candy store with an empty charge card (got a belly ache after eating all that candy).

Like with any media report, you take it with a grain of salt, which includes anything from the NAR as well.

Craig Beggins (Owner of C21 Franchise in Hillsborough / Pinellas) hit the nail on the head when he remarked "It's not so much prices are coming down, it's that prices should never have been there in the first place" Now, that is bubblish to me, but again, that is just IMOP.

I just looked over the GTAR report (PDF format) and seen quite a bit of sale slumping in the Tampa area and anyone who wants to read it can come to their own opinion or conclusion.

Personally, after 12 years in the business, I don’t see anything bright & cheery in the near future. It is not ALL doom and gloom out there either… Anything will sell, but, speed of sale is dependant on price, location, demand and/or how long the seller is willing to hold out or the amount of loss they can swallow (in some cases). Others will simply walk away from the loan and call it a day.

gtar.org/mlsoct06.pdf

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

I don’t see anything bright & cheery in the near future. It is not ALL doom and gloom out there either… Anything will sell, but, speed of sale is dependant on price, location, demand and/or how long the seller is willing to hold out or the amount of loss they can swallow (in some cases). Others will simply walk away from the loan and call it a day.

gtar.org/mlsoct06.pdf

Myhomeisinocala

Your right - I don’t see anything bright & cheery in the near future as well but the sky’s not falling either.

The vertical trajectory is never always a straight line up – it’s always a series of peaks and valleys even in the hottest markets. If you look at the numbers for sales price for the last 5 years on a yearly basis it’s a straight line up, taken an a monthly basis its peaks and valleys. Spread the yearly number over 20 years and it will be peaks and valleys but the trend is UP and has been for 70+ years. That’s a difficult trend to bet against.

The GTAR report is fine and I agree that in isolation 06 looks dim but the report only makes limited comparisons to 05 (the hottest peak year ever). Look at 06 against 04, 03, 02 and you will see a dramatic difference.

That being said there are casualties from the 2005 frenzy but I hardly think that people will just walk away in mass. Where will they live especially after a mortgage foreclosure. Even renting (not to mention everything else) becomes an issue with that on your credit . So long as they can make the payments or sell at or near where they purchased they will not default.

Agreed there will be some but the percentage is small. Keep in mind that the average household has a 60+% equity position in their home according to the US Census Bureau. I don’t know anyone calling it a day on that, would you?

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

After specializing in Foreclosure and eviction, I have seen people walk off and leave their houses. These people (many are families) move on and they do find other homes to rent. It is hard to sell right now, if your payments are inching up and it is becoming harder to pay that inflated mortgage / tax / ins. Payment and or second mortgage... Some do choose to move their family into a cheaper rental and leave the house (which they struggle to pay for), to the mortgage backer. It is sometimes a hard pill for some to swallow. It is not pretty, but it happens. (People lose jobs, get sick, have accidents, surprise increases in their budget and so on.) So, Yes, I can see it happening more than what I am seeing right now. Again, not in mass groves (I never said that), but it happens.

Many Mortgage Companies will still grant a mortgage anywhere from 24-36 months out of a repo/foreclosure. I have worked with those buyers as well.

The air is slowly leaking out of the housing boom/bubble, I would not be surprised if it started to deflate a bit more quickly in Mid 2007.

Yes, Houses (and land) are selling, that will never change, but currently, the speed at which this is happening in this area is at a crawl and savvy buyers are adding more contingencies, requests for paid CC & Points (if any) and offering less than asking price.

Not being Negative, just realistic. Things will iron out eventually; they always do, as my experience has shown me.

60% equity? Is that from the 2000 Census Data?

BTW: Happy Thanksgiving Y'all!!

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Muggy

Please – I mean Please. Like many papers around the country the St Pete times is in financial distress and will do anything to grab your attention and .50 cents.

This is just the kind of story that is intentionally produced to be sensational – a headline grabber on the most popular subject of the day. Great journalism- NOT?? Its C ***!!

It hurts people more than helps them. It masquerades as a legitimate story using one paragraph of inaccurate/skewed home sales statistics and the rest on Fools who got involved in something they had NO BUSINESS being in. In fact the only value this story has is to say don’t get involved in what you don’t know PERIOD.

You are clearly smarter than this so why do you post it?

It's a bubble story by a paper in a Bubble using Bubble math and Bubblelogic. It should have been titled “Idiots that caused the real estate problem” or “Fools that lost money in Real estate”

Explain this from the story if you can:

They say that Year to year housing prices in the Tampa Bay area show small increases but then say that somehow because of the unsold inventory of homes and so comparatively few buyers, most housing prices have actually retreated 5 to 15 percent. Retreated from what??? What is the bubblelogic here? Their analysis (Seems like spiked Kool-Aid is not exclusive to real estate chief economists) uses 200 neighborhoods out of thousands in those counties. Sounds like creative/selective samplings to support their argument.

Then they go on to the sob story of Mr. & Mrs Roberts and others. The Roberts are crying hunger with 2 loaves of bread under their arms. They live in a half million dollar plus home own 3 other sub 200k units and what’s not mentioned in the article is they own a Half Million dollar piece of vacant waterfront property that can if they sold could pay off the mortgages on other 3.

Do you really believe this story? - I really thought you were smarter than that!!

These are the Public records on the Roberts, I’m sure the rest of those quoted in the article tell a similar story:

4439 Reeves Rd New Port Richey, FL single Family 2145 sq ft – purchased 10/17/05 fro $445,000 - Homesteaded Their Primary residence

10359 Carrollwood Ln #158 Tampa, FL Condominium 934sq ft purchased 12/05 for $160,900

3100 Shipwatch Dr. Holiday, FL single Family 1976 sq ft – purchased4/17/06for $269,000

4417 Seneca Ct New Port Richey, FL Single family Waterfront 1484 sq ft - purchased 2/13/06 for $184,900

No Physical address BAILEY'S BLUFF ESTATES UNIT NO 1 PB 4 PG 89 LOT 6 New Port Richey, FL – State Land Use Code: Unnimproved Vacant Residential- Waterfront - - purchased- 04/13/2004 for $277,500 Current Value $500K+

I think the realestate industry is in financial distress and will do anything to grab your attention. showing old numbers is old news. lets see the numbers from the last 3 months How much did the industry spend in that same paper this year, how much did the NAR spend in northern papers in the last 2 months. so if that was true, why would they slam the industry. It hurts people more than helps them trying to sell at last years bubble price. The Sarasota-Bradenton market led the state during the third quarter in dropping median sales prices. Sarasota-Bradenton posted an 11 percent decrease in median sales price, from $340,900 during the third quarter of 2005 to $302,900 during the most recent quarter, the Florida Association of Realtors reported.”

[bamboosmom]

There are realtors that are taking jobs in car dealerships because the market is so slow here in SW Florida. Yes, people are buying homes but they have to afford the taxes and insurance. There are too many homes on the market right now and of course not enough buyers for them all.
The realtors aren't always doing what's right to sell a home either.
It's just the luck of the draw right now, I guess.

[firemed]

This is a story today on how the sales price is manipulated.
http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBYDBHURUE.html