[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

60% equity? Is that from the 2000 Census Data?

Sorry I did say Census Bureau I meant Federal reserve’s Z1 flow of funds account Report. Latest release 9/06 Outstanding mortgages info as well as Household balance sheet info (real estate assets included)

[firemed]

When prices are so out of whack with reality, the more prices fall the more overvalued they will appear. During the bubble “overvaluation” is irrelevant because there is always someone to sell to at a higher price. Only when prices fall does overvaluation come into view,

[mominoreg]

here in Oregon the boom just keeps going on! Those of us not in on it hate seeing housing double in last few years in mostly low wage area, pricing local people out! the unwary sell too cheaply and they go in the blink of an eye. Higher priced are sitting longer, as well as smaller towns. Rural property and bulding lots are still crazy.

[Nomoresubways]

Just curious.

I think you have to look at supply and demand. Right now, the inventory is so high that while you still have buyers (myself included), houses aren't selling as fast as you would have seen the past several years. I'm willing to bet that houses are still selling somewhere in pace with pre-boom levels. That being said, why is there such a huge inventory? Well just like with the stock market, people are trying to cash in while they can, maximize their dollar if you will. That plus all those homebuilders went too crazy and are stuck with a glut of inventory right now. You think they're going to keep up that pace through 2007?? Have you seen any of their earnings reports from the third quarter? How about what their expectations are for the next year or 2?

The inventory for houses on the market is going to decrease in the next 6-12 months, fairly significantly I believe. Am I saying the market is going to be hot again? Hell no. I just think that between the new construction waning a bit and some people yanking their houses off the market for now is going to level the inventory off some. Prices may drop a bit more but I just can't see them dropping more than 10% from their current levels

[firemed]

Originally Posted by mominoreg

here in Oregon the boom just keeps going on! Those of us not in on it hate seeing housing double in last few years in mostly low wage area, pricing local people out! the unwary sell too cheaply and they go in the blink of an eye. Higher priced are sitting longer, as well as smaller towns. Rural property and bulding lots are still crazy.

Its funny how bubbles work.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

Just curious.

I think you have to look at supply and demand. Right now, the inventory is so high that while you still have buyers (myself included), houses aren't selling as fast as you would have seen the past several years. I'm willing to bet that houses are still selling somewhere in pace with pre-boom levels. That being said, why is there such a huge inventory? Well just like with the stock market, people are trying to cash in while they can, maximize their dollar if you will. That plus all those homebuilders went too crazy and are stuck with a glut of inventory right now. You think they're going to keep up that pace through 2007?? Have you seen any of their earnings reports from the third quarter? How about what their expectations are for the next year or 2?

The inventory for houses on the market is going to decrease in the next 6-12 months, fairly significantly I believe. Am I saying the market is going to be hot again? Hell no. I just think that between the new construction waning a bit and some people yanking their houses off the market for now is going to level the inventory off some. Prices may drop a bit more but I just can't see them dropping more than 10% from their current levels

I hope your right , if it's 25% we will see a massive government bailout on this. This will increase our national debt increase liquidity and will cause the dollar to collapse. but what the heck we have sunshine.

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Originally Posted by mominoreg

here in Oregon the boom just keeps going on! Those of us not in on it hate seeing housing double in last few years in mostly low wage area, pricing local people out! the unwary sell too cheaply and they go in the blink of an eye. Higher priced are sitting longer, as well as smaller towns. Rural property and bulding lots are still crazy.

That is the same Happy Housing Bubble magic that we have seen in my neck of the woods here in Central Fl. an area of middle class homes that sold from $40K - $95K in 2003 you can not touch for under $119K-$240Kish. Many of these homes, I still would not pay more than $40K for and I would be Honest enough to tell my clients the whole story.

IMO, you shoule ALWAYS check the tax record for prior sale prices (or your agent should supply it for their buyers)!!!

I still think that there is a Bubble and it is deflating.

More homes are for sale, rent to own, lease or lease w/option than you can shake a stick at right now (sitting Empty). Many homes (atleast six I know of) in my neighborhood have been for sale for months, with no movement.

[Need_affordable_home]

Originally Posted by mominoreg

here in Oregon the boom just keeps going on! Those of us not in on it hate seeing housing double in last few years in mostly low wage area, pricing local people out! the unwary sell too cheaply and they go in the blink of an eye. Higher priced are sitting longer, as well as smaller towns. Rural property and bulding lots are still crazy.

I would have thought the bubble burst nationwide. In s. FL its been a year that the bubble has deflated. Prices and sales are dropping month after month. Even with the price drops, most are still priced out. Houses cost $150k to $200k for small, old houses in low wage downscale neighboors here, theres no way they can afford it. Even my mom and I couldnt afford that

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

That is the same Happy Housing Bubble magic that we have seen in my neck of the woods here in Central Fl. an area of middle class homes that sold from $40K - $95K in 2003 you can not touch for under $119K-$240Kish. Many of these homes, I still would not pay more than $40K for and I would be Honest enough to tell my clients the whole story.

IMO, you shoule ALWAYS check the tax record for prior sale prices (or your agent should supply it for their buyers)!!!

I still think that there is a Bubble and it is deflating.

More homes are for sale, rent to own, lease or lease w/option than you can shake a stick at right now (sitting Empty). Many homes (atleast six I know of) in my neighborhood have been for sale for months, with no movement.

Wow was Ocala that cheap just 3 years ago? I would have been able to afford living there, now the houses I see are around $150k and I can get a bigger, cheaper house up north in a town or small city. Maybe when the bubble deflates completely and once again Ocala or somewhere in Florida nice houses go for $50k to $100k I may relocate back there from whatever town im in up north.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

The inventory for houses on the market is going to decrease in the next 6-12 months, fairly significantly I believe.

Nomoresubways – Hey subways - must be NYC

I think you’ve got near 100%.

IMHO the inventory buildup and subsequent decline breaks out something like this:

1 – normal [reasons for] list and sell activity; Job relo increase/decrease in family size, divorce, death etc. There are some who will have to sell regardless and will always be a part of the normal housing cycle. FYI in unfavorable conditions even some of these sellers will hold off or withdraw

2 - Cashing-out (as you put it) – These sellers will either sell or withdraw and re-evaluate their plans. They don’t necessarily have to sell but if they got the right price they would move on. However because they are not forced to sell they are not a reliable gauge of inventory.

3 – investors. For several years investors have been buying and flipping or buying and adding to the rental units. Only recently have they made a significant move to sell and as a result inflate inventory. I suspect they can’t hold a substantial negative cash flow for long and they will soon have unwound their positions. This inventory will have been absorbed not to be replaced (not at least at previous levels)

4 – Builders. Builders do have excessive inventory because of decisions to build made 1, 2, and 3 years back. They have been adjusting now for the past 8-12 months and have been heavily incenting deals to move inventory already in the pipeline at one stage or another. They have also been cutting staff and in some cases selling land. Clear signs that they intend on building less homes. For the large public companies this is simply inventory control, no different than Coca Cola, Toyota, Home Depot, or Macy’s Right now the sale is on. It wouldn’t be something I’d buy just because there’s good deals around but if I needed a house – that’s a different story

The glut of inventory will be gone in 6 months and will be back to normal levels (6 months supply being normal) – inventory of re-sales has peaked nationally at just over 7 months supply from 4.5 months in 05

At the same time buyers who have been bubble sitting will return and everyone will be happy - except for the eternal pessimists on this board.


Optimist or not – Buyer or Seller HAPPY THANKSGIVING EVERYONE

[Muggy]

I would not want to compete for a house in a market where people are intentionally overpaying for homes and taking cash at closing. These same people are being investigated by the FBI and state agencies. I wonder what they'll find? I'll keep my eye on this story:

Waterfront Homes Sold At Inflated Prices
"the company was effectively shut down earlier this month when its sole underwriter terminated its business arrangement, citing ongoing investigations by the FBI and four state regulatory agencies."

http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBYDBHURUE.html


And this story too:
Suspicious Property Deals On The Rise
"This scheme is hitting every county in Florida. It's like people are going to classes to learn how to do this."

http://www.tbo.com/news/money/MGBUUK5S4UE.html (broken link)