[SunnyDog]

[quote=Shores9;174949]Hey Nomoresubways

I thought NYC – I wasn’t too far off. I was born in Seaford – raised my family in Plainview and Bayville. Worked downtown 15 yrs

Problem for a lot of folks down here is that they’ve never seen this kind of demand nor could they see the kind of value these areas have in comparison to other parts of the country/world.



~There was a big spike in prices in Miami in the late 70's-early 80's as Latin American investors loaded up on real estate here. The ensuing 15+ years saw price stagnation, even declines in condo prices in some areas. Makes "marking timing" a fool's science, but also likely to make fools of those who believe Florida real estate is on a continued ride up for the next 3-5years.


Tampa Bay specifically Pinellas and even Hillsborough county have a lot in common with Nassau county and you know what the cost is there for what you get! Here they cry about a 1940’s -1950’s built dump going for 200K+ On Long Island (majority of homes built 1950-1970’s) the same dump is 500-600K+ and that’s not in the pricey neighborhoods or on (even near) the water.



~Can't compare the 2 locations--what are the median incomes in Long Island versus Tampa? Not everyone moves down here with money.



Yes no doubt there’s a big adjustment happening in real estate after a massive run-up… its to be expected, but so far that adjustment is more a working off of inventory and localized price corrections than a bottomless free fall. And yes I fell sorry for those [Floridians] who waited and are now priced out but feel worse for those can buy now and are waiting as they too will most likely be priced out too. This same story played out in NY CA MA and plenty of other states.


~Letting fear govern your ways (fear of "being left out) will surely lead to your getting screwed. You got to have a plan besides "don't wanna get left out".

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by roaring-rox

Here is web address for the article talking about the decreased prices in 38 states--

http://money.com/2006/11/20/real_est...dex.htm?postve...

I’ve seen this link posted before but hadn’t bothered to read it until today. This one is actually pretty good -- it sticks to FACT not HYPE and quotes the dreaded NAR!!

NAR said the Q3 year over year dropped 1.2% -- WOW!! let me say that again WOW!! -- considering Q3 2005 was the peak of the biggest real estate boom in history and a year later we have only corrected 1.2% WOW

The report goes on to say that 102 of the 148 metro market surveyed had price GAINS!!!! ---- 45 fell and 1 remained the same. 6 of the losers were in FL and happen to be some of the hottest markets in the country, but the majority of the losers (including the BIGGEST loser Detroit) were economically depressed areas and middle of the country states. Half of the losers came from OH WI PA IN MI KY NE MO KS IA.

Decatur, Illinois and Youngstown, Ohio shared the distinction of having the lowest prices - with medians of just $86,000.

Oh PS for those looking at TN they too had some losers.

[SunnyDog]

Originally Posted by Shores9

I’ve seen this link posted before but hadn’t bothered to read it until today. This one is actually pretty good -- it sticks to FACT not HYPE and quotes the dreaded NAR!!

NAR said the Q3 year over year dropped 1.2% -- WOW!! let me say that again WOW!! -- considering Q3 2005 was the peak of the biggest real estate boom in history and a year later we have only corrected 1.2% WOW

The report goes on to say that 102 of the 148 metro market surveyed had price GAINS!!!! ---- 45 fell and 1 remained the same. 6 of the losers were in FL and happen to be some of the hottest markets in the country, but the majority of the losers (including the BIGGEST loser Detroit) were economically depressed areas and middle of the country states. Half of the losers came from OH WI PA IN MI KY NE MO KS IA.

Decatur, Illinois and Youngstown, Ohio shared the distinction of having the lowest prices - with medians of just $86,000.

Oh PS for those looking at TN they too had some losers.

From what relatives in Detroit and other Midwestern locales tell me, they are in some knee-deep dog dung up there. The job market has tanked and people are leaving in droves. Florida has had a real estate slowdown but it's due to oversupply and rising unaffordability (both prices and carrying costs). Florida still has high population growth and low unemployment. Up in Detroit they have population loss and high unemployment, can't sell a home to people that are unemployed or running out of town. Guess which area has an easier fix to its real estate slump?

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

Quote from Shores9 Tampa Bay specifically Pinellas and even Hillsborough county have a lot in common with Nassau county

Look at US Census stats Pinellas and Nassau are almost identical in land mass. They both share beautiful shorelines. They have almost the same population and in relative terms they have similar costs vs disposable income, largest cost/income differential being Housing.

[SunnyDog]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Look at US Census stats Pinellas and Nassau are almost identical in land mass. They both share beautiful shorelines. They have almost the same population and in relative terms they have similar costs vs disposable income, largest cost/income differential being Housing.

But what's the income differential? Without looking it up, I'm guessing any county within 50 miles of NYC has higher incomes than Pinellas county--and by incomes I mean wages/salaries, not retiree investment income.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

But what's the income differential? Without looking it up, I'm guessing any county within 50 miles of NYC has higher incomes than Pinellas county--and by incomes I mean wages/salaries, not retiree investment income.

Sunnydog when I get some time I'll look up the stat and post it - but for now even if Pinellas incomes were 60-70% of Nassau the homes here are 40-50% of the price there. Ps income is income investment or otherwise and the old saying Location , Location , Location -- they both have it!!

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

From what relatives in Detroit and other Midwestern locales tell me, they are in some knee-deep dog dung up there. The job market has tanked and people are leaving in droves. Florida has had a real estate slowdown but it's due to oversupply and rising unaffordability (both prices and carrying costs). Florida still has high population growth and low unemployment. Up in Detroit they have population loss and high unemployment, can't sell a home to people that are unemployed or running out of town. Guess which area has an easier fix to its real estate slump?

You're right and I'd rather be here than there!!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by SunnyDog

Florida has had a real estate slowdown but it's due to oversupply and rising unaffordability (both prices and carrying costs).

Don't forget the fraud factor. As each day passes, more and more fraud stories are coming out of Florida, especially in the Tampa Bay Area.

It's hard to get useful info from comps when fraudsters are over-bidding to make of with cash at closing. It's going to take time to unwind all of these scams.

[Nomoresubways]

I actually live in Suffolk county LI and commute to NYC every day, thus the NO more subway. Or at least once I move down there. I bought a Lennar home last week and yes I got an amazing deal because of their end of fiscal year purging.

I don't know anything about Pinellas but I will tell you that Nassau county in Long Island is ridiculously over priced. I don't think you can really get a decent house for under 500k anymore, and then you're looking at property taxes of well over $10,000. I know someone who is paying property taxes in the neighborhood of 18k a year. And you have to understand not everyone that lives on Long Island works in NYC. Yeah, I make good money working in NYC, but then again I have a 2 + hour commute each way. I also have to pay about $350 a month between Long Island Rail Road and subway fares. My family works on Long Island and the wages on LI are nowhere near what they are in NYC. If I took a similar job to what I am doing right now, I'd instantly take at least a 35% pay cut just to work closer to home. So take that into consideration with Long Island.

I think it is difficult to compare the two areas though because there are so many factors that make it muddled. Florida has no income tax so that makes up a little of the wages difference. But then, home insurance is higher, considerably higher in some areas of Florida. Property taxes definitely are much higher in Long Island than anywhere I've looked at in Florida. I'd have to say most day to day staples are higher in Long Island. I just paid $2.39 for gas the other day, what's the avg price for unleaded down there? I just paid $2.49/gallon for heating oil (not that you really have to deal with heating oil down there). I really have no idea what the difference is with groceries and that kind of stuff. I'm sure in the end it all balances out in reality. I think the most important thing is to be where you're happy.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

I don't know anything about Pinellas but I will tell you that Nassau county in Long Island is ridiculously over priced. I don't think you can really get a decent house for under 500k anymore, and then you're looking at property taxes of well over $10,000.

you have to understand not everyone that lives on Long Island works in NYC. Yeah, I make good money working in NYC, but then again I have a 2 + hour commute each way. I also have to pay about $350 a month between Long Island Rail Road and subway fares. My family works on Long Island and the wages on LI are nowhere near what they are in NYC. If I took a similar job to what I am doing right now, I'd instantly take at least a 35% pay cut just to work closer to home. So take that into consideration with Long Island.

I just paid $2.39 for gas

I just paid $2.49/gallon for heating oil (not that you really have to deal with heating oil down there).

I think the most important thing is to be where you're happy.

Hey just as an FYI for the board – What does 500K buy? How old how many sq. ft. what condition? What kind of neighborhood Low Middle or High end??


Gas here at the Clearwater Costco yesterday regular is 2.08 a gallon

[Nomoresubways]

Well it's a pretty open ended question I guess depending on where you look. If we're sticking to the Nassau county analogy, I'd say 500k either gets you a smaller (under 2,000) older house in a good neighborhood, or perhaps a newer, larger (over 2,000 sq ft) home in a not so good neighborhood. I'll try to get some real data so I'm not just rambling senseless info here.

I'll tell you a quick story about my personal LI housing experience. We moved from Vermont to LI about 6 years ago (I grew up on LI, my wife in Vermont). I bought a house in a town called Shirley for around $165k. Shirley was and is one of the worst areas in Suffolk county to live, but it was also one of the cheapest to buy a house. Being first time buyers, we did what we had to do. The schools weren't great, our neighborhood was ok for the area. Last year, at the peak of the housing boom in the area, I basically doubled that when I sold it to buy the house I'm in now. That same house is now going for almost $400k. This is a 3 bedroom 1 bath ranch built in 1975. It had half an acre and an above ground pool and a finished basement. Just for comparisons sake. The property taxes were $3300 when I moved in and were $6,000 by the time we moved out.