Real Estate Bubble Poll (Tampa, Orlando: relocating, housing, condo)

[j in florida]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Don't forget the fraud factor. As each day passes, more and more fraud stories are coming out of Florida, especially in the Tampa Bay Area.

It's hard to get useful info from comps when fraudsters are over-bidding to make of with cash at closing. It's going to take time to unwind all of these scams.

Ain't that the truth. Here is a recent example.

http://www.tbo.com/news/metro/MGBYDBHURUE.html

BTW, mortgage fraud and appraisal fraud isn't just in Florida, it's everywhere. It got WAY worse when mortgage brokers gained significant market share in first mortgage loan originations.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

Well it's a pretty open ended question I guess depending on where you look. If we're sticking to the Nassau county analogy, I'd say 500k either gets you a smaller (under 2,000) older house in a good neighborhood, or perhaps a newer, larger (over 2,000 sq ft) home in a not so good neighborhood. I'll try to get some real data so I'm not just rambling senseless info here.

I'll tell you a quick story about my personal LI housing experience. We moved from Vermont to LI about 6 years ago (I grew up on LI, my wife in Vermont). I bought a house in a town called Shirley for around $165k. Shirley was and is one of the worst areas in Suffolk county to live, but it was also one of the cheapest to buy a house. Being first time buyers, we did what we had to do. The schools weren't great, our neighborhood was ok for the area. Last year, at the peak of the housing boom in the area, I basically doubled that when I sold it to buy the house I'm in now. That same house is now going for almost $400k. This is a 3 bedroom 1 bath ranch built in 1975. It had half an acre and an above ground pool and a finished basement. Just for comparisons sake. The property taxes were $3300 when I moved in and were $6,000 by the time we moved out.

Interesting you mentioned Finished basement! That’s something we don't have down here. Last time I checked (5 years ago) about 30% of the homes in the area where I grew up on Long Island had illegal basement apartments that they rented to meet the mortgage. Sometimes they had a dormered upstairs apartment as well -- leaving the one level to live in – Hey sometimes that what you have to do . And plenty of investors bought houses specifically for that reason.

It was and probably still is a condition that is ruining the quality of live and stressing everything from energy to schools to water not to mention a whole underground economy. These are a few of the things that happen in so-called great areas and nice neighborhoods.

Funny what you forget in only a few years. The NYC commute and the LIRR are also a distant memory

[Floridamex]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Interesting you mentioned Finished basement! That’s something we don't have down here. Last time I checked (5 years ago) about 30% of the homes in the area where I grew up on Long Island had illegal basement apartments that they rented to meet the mortgage. Sometimes they had a dormered upstairs apartment as well -- leaving the one level to live in – Hey sometimes that what you have to do . And plenty of investors bought houses specifically for that reason.

It was and probably still is a condition that is ruining the quality of live and stressing everything from energy to schools to water not to mention a whole underground economy. These are a few of the things that happen in so-called great areas and nice neighborhoods.

Funny what you forget in only a few years. The NYC commute and the LIRR are also a distant memory

Why are people still deep in denial.

Illegal in not a word used in Florida. Florida is New York South. You need to read this http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2006/...back/?business

[firemed]

[quote=SunnyDog;174968]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Hey Nomoresubways

I thought NYC – I wasn’t too far off. I was born in Seaford – raised my family in Plainview and Bayville. Worked downtown 15 yrs

Problem for a lot of folks down here is that they’ve never seen this kind of demand nor could they see the kind of value these areas have in comparison to other parts of the country/world.



~There was a big spike in prices in Miami in the late 70's-early 80's as Latin American investors loaded up on real estate here. The ensuing 15+ years saw price stagnation, even declines in condo prices in some areas. Makes "marking timing" a fool's science, but also likely to make fools of those who believe Florida real estate is on a continued ride up for the next 3-5years.


Tampa Bay specifically Pinellas and even Hillsborough county have a lot in common with Nassau county and you know what the cost is there for what you get! Here they cry about a 1940’s -1950’s built dump going for 200K+ On Long Island (majority of homes built 1950-1970’s) the same dump is 500-600K+ and that’s not in the pricey neighborhoods or on (even near) the water.



~Can't compare the 2 locations--what are the median incomes in Long Island versus Tampa? Not everyone moves down here with money.



Yes no doubt there’s a big adjustment happening in real estate after a massive run-up… its to be expected, but so far that adjustment is more a working off of inventory and localized price corrections than a bottomless free fall. And yes I fell sorry for those [Floridians] who waited and are now priced out but feel worse for those can buy now and are waiting as they too will most likely be priced out too. This same story played out in NY CA MA and plenty of other states.


~Letting fear govern your ways (fear of "being left out) will surely lead to your getting screwed. You got to have a plan besides "don't wanna get left out".

Real estate agents will say any thing to sell you a house.
To jump start the housing market, real estate agents have pulled out all the stops. ‘We’ve seen plasma TVs, we’ve seen $5,000 bonuses, we’ve seen cars, we’ve seen airline tickets. As creative as they can get at this point, It’s still not driving the market up. don't buy into the BS. It's simple don't buy a falling knife. When the price starts upward you can get in easy.

[sunrico90]

Home prices down 1.2% in third quarter

Three Florida metro areas were hit hard by price drops. In Sarasota, the median home now sells for $320,700, off a whopping 9.4 percent from last year; Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville prices sank 9 percent to $193,600; and Cape Coral prices plunged 8 percent to $255,400.

Sarasota condo prices also dipped, 11 percent to $275,600, the largest drop in any condo market.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real...ion=2006112014

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Home prices down 1.2% in third quarter

Three Florida metro areas were hit hard by price drops. In Sarasota, the median home now sells for $320,700, off a whopping 9.4 percent from last year; Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville prices sank 9 percent to $193,600; and Cape Coral prices plunged 8 percent to $255,400.

Sarasota condo prices also dipped, 11 percent to $275,600, the largest drop in any condo market.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real...ion=2006112014

Originally Posted by Shores9

I’ve seen this link posted before but hadn’t bothered to read it until today. This one is actually pretty good -- it sticks to FACT not HYPE and quotes the dreaded NAR!!

NAR said the Q3 year over year dropped 1.2% -- WOW!! let me say that again WOW!! -- considering Q3 2005 was the peak of the biggest real estate boom in history and a year later we have only corrected 1.2% WOW

The report goes on to say that 102 of the 148 metro market surveyed had price GAINS!!!! ---- 45 fell and 1 remained the same. 6 of the losers were in FL and happen to be some of the hottest markets in the country, but the majority of the losers (including the BIGGEST loser Detroit) were economically depressed areas and middle of the country states. Half of the losers came from OH WI PA IN MI KY NE MO KS IA.

Decatur, Illinois and Youngstown, Ohio shared the distinction of having the lowest prices - with medians of just $86,000.

Oh PS for those looking at TN they too had some losers.

This has been out for days and posted earlier in this thread

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by Shores9

This has been out for days and posted earlier in this thread

This was reported yesterday on CNN: November 20 2006: 2:13 PM EST. Sorry if I waste your time..

[Nomoresubways]

I'll make a friendly pretend wager right here on the spot. I think that at this time next year you will see an increase in the median price of homes sold in the Orlando area (central Florida in general) as compared to sales right now. Compare Q3 2007 with Q3 2006 and there will be an increase. You'll also see inventory levels at perhaps 25% or more less than right now. And I would put money on the fact that the house I just bought in Mount Dora last week will have accrued at least 5% in equity on it's own. This all by the end of 2007.

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Home prices down 1.2% in third quarter

Three Florida metro areas were hit hard by price drops. In Sarasota, the median home now sells for $320,700, off a whopping 9.4 percent from last year; Palm Bay/Melbourne/Titusville prices sank 9 percent to $193,600; and Cape Coral prices plunged 8 percent to $255,400.

Sarasota condo prices also dipped, 11 percent to $275,600, the largest drop in any condo market.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/20/real...ion=2006112014

We really liked Indialantic, Cocoa Beach area which I guess includes Melbourne, yes? So the median price house there is less than Port Charlotte now? ( I heard that PC's median is 225K )

Is it as dead there as it is here?

Ideas??

[sunrico90]

I have to research the latest real estate market for the area, but I believe that with the drop in mortgage rates and the surplus housing market in Indialantic, Cocoa Beach and Melbourne a positive turn can happen.

This is a well known area and is a prime area for retirement due to the location and access to Orlando.

See report below on morgage rates:

Mortgage rates see big drop
Long-term rates hit lowest level since first of the year; 30-year fixed hits 6.18 percent.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/11/22/real...ion=2006112216