Real Estate Bubble Poll (Palm Beach: mortgage, credit, loans)

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

I'll make a friendly pretend wager right here on the spot. I think that at this time next year you will see an increase in the median price of homes sold in the Orlando area (central Florida in general) as compared to sales right now. Compare Q3 2007 with Q3 2006 and there will be an increase. You'll also see inventory levels at perhaps 25% or more less than right now. And I would put money on the fact that the house I just bought in Mount Dora last week will have accrued at least 5% in equity on it's own. This all by the end of 2007.

I would take that bet. The builders will crash the comps by next year. Inventory will be up so high in the 1Q it will take a year just to rebound. buildings without a C/O right now will tip the scales. If the builders stop unemployment will force the market down. The Detroit market, buffeted by auto industry layoffs, suffered the largest loss so far: prices there plummeted 10.5 percent, to a median of $154,100. Take away the construction jobs in Florida and its a big deal. 78% of the employment is construction related. The tuition incentive is one of the more unusual carrots dangled by desperate builders, who continue to be hammered by rising buyer cancellations and declines in new orders since South Florida’s five-year housing boom ended this year.”

“Builders would rather offer incentives because lowering home prices can get them into trouble with existing customers and affect future appraisals, If you’ve got a guy who closed on his home a couple of months ago, and he finds out that somebody else paid $10,000 less than him, and he will because they all talk, then he’s going to be upset, But you can only bleed for so long.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

This was reported yesterday on CNN: November 20 2006: 2:13 PM EST. Sorry if I waste your time..

My apologies for jumping on that so hard. It’s the dramatic headline presentation that is so often misleading and provoking.

Yes q3 06 at $224,900 is 1.2% lower q3 05’s $227,600 Aside from $2,700.00 what does this mean. It means that prices and sales are adjusting from the PACE of the two highest record level quarters in History.

The pace is slowing both in units sold and in dollar value. There’s a lot of excellent information in this report but I will not go there at this point. I will say that while the q3 06 median price was lower than the previous year’s same period - $224,900 (for q3 06) is 2.6% higher than $219,000 the median price for the entire year of 2005

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Bay's home boom suddenly bellyup

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/11/19/Ta...om_sudde.shtml

Has anyone seen this kind of thing? MiraBay, in southeast Hillsborough, about 150 of 500 homes display "For Sale" signs.
There's a lot of houses for sale around here but it's not anything like that.

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by firemed

I would take that bet. The builders will crash the comps by next year. Inventory will be up so high

Yup, I'd like in on that bet too although I don't like it.

[sunrico90]

Originally Posted by MrTudo

We really liked Indialantic, Cocoa Beach area which I guess includes Melbourne, yes? So the median price house there is less than Port Charlotte now? ( I heard that PC's median is 225K )

Is it as dead there as it is here?

Ideas??

Mr. Tudo,

See below for info on the real estate market in Brevard. This is very inreresting report.

Sales and the huge drop in prices that was predicted to happen from September to October did not happen. There was a gain from September to October of 8.5%. In September Brevard County had 508 residential properties sold and in October 546 residential properties sold. The average sold price went from $248,407 in September up to $253,851 in October. The overall number of sales went down 9% from October 2005 to October 2006. This in no way is the drastic bubble burst everyone was predicting. Obviously properties are still being sold. The other factor that agents and the industry relies on heavily is the number of days on the market. Last October it took 96 days for the average home to sell and this October it was 96 days again.

The luxury home market ($1,000,000 asking price and up) showed the most strides this month. The sales doubled, the average sales price went up but the days on market also increased which would be expected considering the slow down this market experienced in August and September. There were 3 sales in September with an average sales price of $971,667 while in November there were 6 sales and the average sales price dramatically increased to $1,502,500.

The condominium market is still struggling. This market continues to be hit hard here in Brevard County. The recent new construction brought an oversupply to the area which will take some time to absorb. September had 125 units sold and October had 115 units sold. The average sales price went from $269,948 to $275,948 (there were some condominiums in the luxury category that sold which brought this average sales price up). The days on market actually went down from 120 to 114 days to sell the average condominium.

Overall the majority of sales were financed with conventional financing. Over the past few months we have seen some great bond money programs. One first time buyer received what is called a $25,000 gift that she will not have to pay back as long as she pays the mortgage and keeps the property for a certain # of years. If you are a first time buyer this program is a great opportunity to purchase your first home but it takes patience and someone to guide you through the paperwork and process so let me be your guide.

If we're in a bubble why am I having such a good year? Despite the media real estate sales are happening. Inventory is high but homes are selling and lately there has been bidding wars on some of the better priced properties
http://realtytimes.com/reumcr/barbarazorn

[MrTudo]

Wow, I spoke to my Brother who is retired on Merritt Island and who owns an investment property there in addition to his main home told me it was d-e-a-d-- there. That million+ $ homes are completely dead. Under 300K has somewhat of a chance to sell depending on how it's priced and that a neighbor of his just sold for 25% less than what he listed at a year ago.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by sunrico90

Mr. Tudo,

See below for info on the real estate market in Brevard. This is very inreresting report.

Sales and the huge drop in prices that was predicted to happen from September to October did not happen. There was a gain from September to October of 8.5%. In September Brevard County had 508 residential properties sold and in October 546 residential properties sold. The average sold price went from $248,407 in September up to $253,851 in October. The overall number of sales went down 9% from October 2005 to October 2006. This in no way is the drastic bubble burst everyone was predicting. Obviously properties are still being sold. The other factor that agents and the industry relies on heavily is the number of days on the market. Last October it took 96 days for the average home to sell and this October it was 96 days again.

The luxury home market ($1,000,000 asking price and up) showed the most strides this month. The sales doubled, the average sales price went up but the days on market also increased which would be expected considering the slow down this market experienced in August and September. There were 3 sales in September with an average sales price of $971,667 while in November there were 6 sales and the average sales price dramatically increased to $1,502,500.

The condominium market is still struggling. This market continues to be hit hard here in Brevard County. The recent new construction brought an oversupply to the area which will take some time to absorb. September had 125 units sold and October had 115 units sold. The average sales price went from $269,948 to $275,948 (there were some condominiums in the luxury category that sold which brought this average sales price up). The days on market actually went down from 120 to 114 days to sell the average condominium.

Overall the majority of sales were financed with conventional financing. Over the past few months we have seen some great bond money programs. One first time buyer received what is called a $25,000 gift that she will not have to pay back as long as she pays the mortgage and keeps the property for a certain # of years. If you are a first time buyer this program is a great opportunity to purchase your first home but it takes patience and someone to guide you through the paperwork and process so let me be your guide.

If we're in a bubble why am I having such a good year? Despite the media real estate sales are happening. Inventory is high but homes are selling and lately there has been bidding wars on some of the better priced properties
http://realtytimes.com/reumcr/barbarazorn

QUOTE=sunrico90 "If we're in a bubble why am I having such a good year? Despite the media real estate sales are happening". Thats easy, Sales are good and should be because its a bubble. 2nd the media is reporting the news. you may not like it but its the news. Denial of a market change is the worse thing anyone could do. realtytimes is a rag sold to brokers and agents and will tell you what you want to hear it a cheerleader for the industry. 6% of a $1,000,000 house can give you a good year. That is one sale. even a blind squirrel can find a nut. And who predicted the drop you stated. If I recall the NAR said the price would not drop. and if you like I will show you reports from the NAR about the prices from the past year. There is alot of deflating talk. so if theres no bubble what is deflating ?

[mike jones]

Originally Posted by lulu

Really scary...and I can't stop thinking of these people who overpaid on their homes. One of my neighbors bought their house for $610,000 and 2 yrs before that the owners there paid $330,000. Now, he got a great job in N.Y. and is scared cause he doesn't know if he'll sell it. Maybe, he has to turn down the job. He's in a real jam...

I am relocating from Michigan in a few months.
We got it just as bad. If not worse
I will lose my shirt on my Michigan home.
But on the bright side I am hoping to pick up a great deal like the one described above to compenstate for the loss.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by mike jones

I am relocating from Michigan in a few months.
We got it just as bad. If not worse
I will lose my shirt on my Michigan home.
But on the bright side I am hoping to pick up a great deal like the one described above to compenstate for the loss.

Mike, I don't think you will find a deal like that anymore. As a native I can tell you one of the big things that drove the Florida market was people would buy land here and plan to retire. After the hurricanes some people just wanted out. You have no idea what it's like in Florida without electric in the middle of summer! Now I know why the spaniards named this place " the devils land ". Ironically now we refer to it as paradise. People just wanted to sell and were selling at fair prices to begin with. Some people lost spouses before they had a chance to move and decided to sell the properties they aquired. But then the speculaters got into the game and were flipping properties to each other. I understand Michigan is in bad shape, but Florida is on it's way to the same situation. The construction industry is laying off people as we speak. Hospitality and food service workers are mostly illegals due to the low pay along with the blue collar construction jobs. Agricultural is shrinking tremendesly. I would recomend visiting the area and doing some research before making your final decision. There are a lot of real estate people who are in dire straits right now. Most big manufacturing companys are moving away due to the increase in expenditures. Nobody really knows how this will play out. Unless your retiring and have enough money to survive, I would do the research. We can't survive just selling homes to each other.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by firemed

Mike, I don't think you will find a deal like that anymore.

Originally Posted by firemed

. If I recall the NAR said the price would not drop. and if you like I will show you reports from the NAR about the prices from the past year. There is alot of deflating talk. so if theres no bubble what is deflating ?

Originally Posted by firemed

It's simple don't buy a falling knife.

Originally Posted by firemed

This is looking like Florida in the 1920s
This is from a housing auction in Naples. HOLD ONTO YOUR HAT. There were on line bidders and around 400 people present.

608 Banyan Blvd, Naples Zillow 1.78 million sold for $900,000.
1166 12th Ave North, Naples Zillow $595,000. sold for $300,000.
1034 6th Lane North, Naples Zillow $605,000. sold for $275,000.
510 Riviera Dr, Naples Zillow $1,056,000 sold for $800,000.
570 Rudder Rd, Naples Zillow $1,064,000. sold for $770,000.
635 Robin Court, Marco Island Zillow $934,000. sold for $635,000.
About six lots on the water in Cape Corral. Only one bid for one lot for $60,000. The autioner said the minimum was $200,000.

Firemed what is your messasge? Are you saying mike jones can't find a deal here and that only real estate in Michigan is bad!