[Shores9]

Why do so many of you real estate doom and gloomers feel so compelled to push negative reports regardless of their source or content?

I feel that the majority of people out there would have better sense than to rely on someone’s opinion other than their own when making a 100-200-300K+ decision and I personally give the average person more credit in this regard than you.

I don’t think any report from the St Pete rag [I mean] Times or NAR will be the primary basis for anyone’s purchase (or sale) transaction.

A recent survey released 11-20-06 by RT Strategies, which conducted the research for NAHB, polled prospective home buyers and found they may derive some of their information on the housing market from the news media, but at the end of the day the things that matter far more when they are deciding whether to make a purchase include the price of the new home, mortgage interest rates and their housing needs. Home price was at the top of the list of respondents surveyed, with 80% citing its significance.

FYI In the same release by NAHB:

Home builders are working down their existing inventory of homes fairly quickly and the current slowdown in production is expected by NAHB economists to have run its course by the middle of 2007. From that point forward, the industry is expecting to see a good balance in the marketplace between supply and demand, setting the stage for a healthy and sustainable trend for housing, supported by a growing U.S. economy.

nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=3634

Another report puts real estate media sources like Zillow and cyberhomes and the county appraisers office all at odds with each other. Who’s right? The Palm Beach Post compared some current listings for sale using information from all three - the results were all over the place.

palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2006/11/20/a3bz_pg3cyberhomes_1120.html

The lesson is it’s all great table talk but don’t take the sensational headlines or these fancy cyber tools too seriously. Use your head -- do your own research (best you can) -- and get a good realtor to keep you “up to the minute” current with the market.

I know the last (realtor) comment is going to spark some debate so let me say this: If you own stock you probably check the paper (dated information)or the net – also dated information UNLESS YOU PAY TO GET A BROKERS CURRENT PRICE. If you were buying 300K+ worth of stock you bet your butt you’re using a broker (discount – online – or other)

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Why do so many of you real estate doom and gloomers feel so compelled to push negative reports regardless of their source or content?

I feel that the majority of people out there would have better sense than to rely on someone’s opinion other than their own when making a 100-200-300K+ decision and I personally give the average person more credit in this regard than you.

I don’t think any report from the St Pete rag [I mean] Times or NAR will be the primary basis for anyone’s purchase (or sale) transaction.

A recent survey released 11-20-06 by RT Strategies, which conducted the research for NAHB, polled prospective home buyers and found they may derive some of their information on the housing market from the news media, but at the end of the day the things that matter far more when they are deciding whether to make a purchase include the price of the new home, mortgage interest rates and their housing needs. Home price was at the top of the list of respondents surveyed, with 80% citing its significance.

FYI In the same release by NAHB:

Home builders are working down their existing inventory of homes fairly quickly and the current slowdown in production is expected by NAHB economists to have run its course by the middle of 2007. From that point forward, the industry is expecting to see a good balance in the marketplace between supply and demand, setting the stage for a healthy and sustainable trend for housing, supported by a growing U.S. economy.

nahb.org/news_details.aspx?newsID=3634

Another report puts real estate media sources like Zillow and cyberhomes and the county appraisers office all at odds with each other. Who’s right? The Palm Beach Post compared some current listings for sale using information from all three - the results were all over the place.

palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2006/11/20/a3bz_pg3cyberhomes_1120.html

The lesson is it’s all great table talk but don’t take the sensational headlines or these fancy cyber tools too seriously. Use your head -- do your own research (best you can) -- and get a good realtor to keep you “up to the minute” current with the market.

I know the last (realtor) comment is going to spark some debate so let me say this: If you own stock you probably check the paper (dated information)or the net – also dated information UNLESS YOU PAY TO GET A BROKERS CURRENT PRICE. If you were buying 300K+ worth of stock you bet your butt you’re using a broker (discount – online – or other)

I just use the numbers that are reported . I have been in Florida all my life and know the area very well. I know the land areas well also. As far as stocks, I have alot of stocks and I don't buy on what is said by Brokers or the news. I use the numbers. I buy when the market is short and sell when its high. I don't buy when it's high and sell when its short, but thats just me. I can wish all I like but numbers are the story. RE numbers are in parts and are based on where they are from, could be MLS, FSBO, ATS, so on . The more info the better. So don't slam me for posting what is in the news. The Market has changed. and if you can say it has not, prove me wrong. Don't get mad cause sales are down, its not professional. I'm not a doom and gloomer. But I do have gold also, but to me its like having hurricane shutters. Better safe then sorry.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Firemed what is your messasge? Are you saying mike jones can't find a deal here and that only real estate in Michigan is bad!

No, if you read what I said, is look for yourself no one knows how this will pan out..

[Nomoresubways]

It's Thanksgiving so I'm wishing everyone a great holiday and hoping y'all are having a great time with your families.

However, tomorrow I will be back defending my stance that the housing market is just about bottomed out and will rebound next year, albeit slowly.

[Muggy]

Could somebody explain this to me:

If in fact the market will pick up soon, why are homebuilders offering such huge discounts, homes going into foreclosure, and auctions picking up?

Why don't all of these stressed parties just wait a few more months for the market "to get good" again?

Also, what happened to the snowbird effect?

[Nomoresubways]

Homebuilders have one thing in mind right now. The balance sheet. We are near the end of the fiscal year and they don't want to carry the inventory (or loans tied to these houses) over to the next fiscal year. Plus, without getting the money for the houses, they can't pay their subcontractors. Anyone who has either worked in construction, or around it, understand that subcontractors make the world go round. You have a good subcontractor or two, who is reliable, does a good job, and likes to work with you, and you want to keep them happy and around. If you don't pay them, they don't stick around. Now remember, for the past several years, these home builders have made insane profits. You should see the profit margin on some of the houses they've built and sold. Plus, let's keep in mind one other small detail. Most of these "inventory" homes were originally bought and designed by somebody who paid a deposit. You walk away from a contract and guess what. You lose that deposit. So let's say a house was originally 400k. Most builders require a 5-10% down payment to start construction. So when Joe six pack puts down 20-40k on that house and then walks away, Joe builder gets to pocket that money. So that's built into the discount right there. Plus, you erode some of that fat profit margin and they aren't losing tons of money on all these inventory homes.

I want to see solid evidence of this foreclosure phenomena. I remember 7 years ago there was a lot of doom and gloom surrounding my industry, IT. Remember Y2K? It was going to cause all sorts of problems and destroy the economy. Yeah right. All it did was boost technology companies and give IT guys like myself lots of OT.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

I want to see solid evidence of this foreclosure phenomena.

"Foreclosures Up 17% in Third Quarter
Unemployment, resetting mortgages, and softening housing market to blame for more than 900,000 foreclosures across the country"

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...110_250596.htm



"New foreclosure filings in Florida totaled 11,413 last month, up 50 percent over October 2005's 7,629 filings. The growing number of foreclosures in an already unstable housing market is exacerbated by $1.2 trillion in adjustable-rate first mortgages that are beginning to reset."

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/business/content/business/epaper/2006/11/17/a1c_foreclosure1117.html?imw=Y (broken link)

[Nomoresubways]

"It will keep going up," says Rick Sharga, the company's vice-president of marketing. "But we still don't see the feared tsunami of foreclosures coming any time soon."

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

"It will keep going up,"

You asked for evidence of foreclosure phenomena, not a "tsunami" of foreclosures. I provided you that.
I have given you negative feedback for "purposely misleading." This thread is a place to discuss housing issues, not to intentionally misinterpret information; that is an irresponsible debate tactic.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Muggy

You asked for evidence of foreclosure phenomena, not a "tsunami" of foreclosures. I provided you that.
I have given you negative feedback for "purposely misleading." This thread is a place to discuss housing issues, not to intentionally misinterpret information; that is an irresponsible debate tactic.

Remember a Tsunami starts with a ripple. I think the foreclosure rate will show the true numbers at the 4Q 2007. Alot of people got in way over there heads as well as builders. In the late 80's in Florida alot of builders went into bankruptcy taking the subs with them. Builders have alot of people working for them. If a slowdown in sales continues it will be very bad, Workers will lose there job and be forced to move. homes will go up for sale and if you must sell fast,the price will drop or they will go into foreclosure.
In the past 5 years most of the people that moved to Florida have jobs built around the boom. Speculators were a big part of the fast moving market. Sales went up and so did jobs. More people moved here for jobs. 1000 people a day were moving to Florida and schools were packed. This year only 500 new students was a shock for the state. Now if we return to a normalized market, alot of jobs will be lost. But it must happen