Real Estate Bubble Poll (Tampa, Sarasota: housing, rent, lease)

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores9

What the question? Are you referring to Z1 q2 06 Home mortgages

Yes I would like to know, Thank You.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by firemed

Yes I would like to know, Thank You.

The number I have is 2q 06 household mortgages 9324.5 (in billions of dollars)

[Nomoresubways]

I'm not saying this is solid evidence in either direction, but it's from today.

http://www.dailynewstranscript.com/localRegional/view.bg?articleid=79341</url>


"We are in the midst of an inevitable adjustment following the housing boom of 2004-2005 when housing market activity soared to unsustainable levels," said NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. "Housing demand should stabilize in short order, and the downward adjustment to housing production should run its course by mid-2007. The market that emerges from this correction will display good balance between supply and demand, and move to a healthy and sustainable trend based on solid underlying fundamentals."

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

"Housing demand should stabilize in short order, and the downward adjustment to housing production should run its course by mid-2007."

I have several sources to building and related industries. They have been adjusting/correcting for about a year. They have more recently started pairing down on staff which is the best signal that they have turned the corner on inventory. If they are completing new units and laying off staff then they are not likely to be producing the same number of new units. Who will supervise them? Once the oversupply is gone its gone. All about inventory control – doesn’t matter if your Centex homes – Toyota Motors – or Nabisco Foods

[Nomoresubways]

I have told several friends that are settling down, getting married, etc that if they are considering buying a house in the next year or two to seriously consider doing it now. I think whether it be a new construction "inventory" home or a resale where the seller is "motivated" due to relocation, you can find a very solid deal right now. Interest rates cannot be overlooked. Prices are low, rates are low, and in many cases you can name your price and have a sale.

[MrTudo]

One of the new "fundamentals" that isn't being mentioned is how the new 40 and 50 year mortgages will impact pricing and values. Yeah I realize that 40 YO's who take 30 year mortgages will most likely never own their properties but I think it's safe to say that the vast majority will never "own" a home when taking a 40 or 50 year mortgage. So it becomes a monthly payment just like in the car business.

Once upon a time, who would have ever thought that people would rent ( oh I'm sorry they call it "lease" nowadays) their regular automobiles? Well it's gotten to the point where few people can afford to buy one so they rent it, er lease it. Between the continued devaluation of the currency, every increasing socialism ( taxes, regulations ), one of the very foundational areas of a free society has been shaken, , ie: property ownership and the thought process that goes with it. That property was automobiles and the thought of owning one is becoming less and less.

Ditto on real estate and in my opinion this will be the final death knell to idea of property rights.

And it will mean every increasing valuations since nobody will be buying, only renting, er paying interest to a bank for their entire lives. AND getting some subsidy from others ( to each according to his need ) to do so.

[Shores9]

I will be taking a brief leave - however before I do I noticed that the correction gap between hard and soft corrections is closing 40% soft 43% hard. There are believers!!

Before I go:

Affordability is a major factor affecting the demand side of the equation but I’m not concerned what so ever about demand. It is what it is and for now so long as interest rates are reasonable and employment is good then aside from affordability which will correct over time via increased wages and a slowdown in appreciation and or a correction in price (area specific) the only thing holding buyers back will be uncertainty.


The supply side is the prevailing factor in my opinion. Population is growing every day land mass isn’t. The supply of units will correct and as that happens we will see less uncertainty and more buyers back in the market – hopefully all at a more reasonable [prices]and sustainable rate.

[Shores8]

I would never buy in Florida. Comparing Florida to NY is crazy.

[MrTudo]

Originally Posted by Shores8

I would never buy in Florida. Comparing Florida to NY is crazy.

So why are you in the Fla area? Bored?

[firemed]

Originally Posted by firemed

Remember a Tsunami starts with a ripple. I think the foreclosure rate will show the true numbers at the 4Q 2007. Alot of people got in way over there heads as well as builders. In the late 80's in Florida alot of builders went into bankruptcy taking the subs with them. Builders have alot of people working for them. If a slowdown in sales continues it will be very bad, Workers will lose there job and be forced to move. homes will go up for sale and if you must sell fast,the price will drop or they will go into foreclosure.
In the past 5 years most of the people that moved to Florida have jobs built around the boom. Speculators were a big part of the fast moving market. Sales went up and so did jobs. More people moved here for jobs. 1000 people a day were moving to Florida and schools were packed. This year only 500 new students was a shock for the state. Now if we return to a normalized market, alot of jobs will be lost. But it must happen

Quote- from shores9 ;They have more recently started pairing down on staff which is the best signal that they have turned the corner on inventory. If they are completing new units and laying off staff then they are not likely to be producing the same number of new units;

If the building slows, Jobs will be a major factor. Its a long train ride to NYC. Even realestate agents will fell the pinch.

“auctions are the hot selling tool.'' Mortgage companies faced with an increasing number of delinquencies will do what it takes to reduce their inventory. ‘Our interest is in making the sale and getting a good market price to reduce our own credit losses, as well as creating an affordable homeownership opportunity,’ said Brad German, a spokesman for Freddie Mac