Real Estate Bubble Poll (Sarasota, Bradenton: mortgage, foreclosures, military)

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Shores8

I would never buy in Florida. Comparing Florida to NY is crazy.

I have no idea what this means. We're not comparing Florida to New York. Don't name spoof either - not cool.

To the real Shores9, are foreclosures up or not? How do you determine that they are "net." What time period does a professional use to measure the rate of foreclosures... week, month, Q, year?

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Muggy

I have no idea what this means. We're not comparing Florida to New York. Don't name spoof either - not cool.

To the real Shores9, are foreclosures up or not? How do you determine that they are "net." What time period does a professional use to measure the rate of foreclosures... week, month, Q, year?

Foreclosures are on the rise and are based on 1/4 delinquencies
We are still going to have to play the waiting game to find out if the housing slowdown is going to be enough to pull America into a recession, but it is surely going to be something to contend with over the next year. We have already started to see the impact during July through September when economic growth came in at a 1.6% percent rate. The weakening housing market was blamed for shaving a full percentage off the rate.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores10

Firemed, you can't honestly think the housing slowdown is going to send the economy into a recession, that is by far the most absurd thing I have read all day, and I just finished The Cat in the Hat! Too much time in the sun, son. Do us all a favor and cite your sources, too, and be a little skeptical, good grief. "Was blamed" doesn't exactly tell the whole story, does it? [Jerry Falwell's explanation of Hurricane Katrina comes to mind.] I mean, maybe I'm slow on the uptake (I'm not); I just don't understand how this perception has become so pervasive. It's grade-A donkey farts.

As for comparing New York to Florida (whoever started that), there is no comparison. I get so tired of people trotting out the magic yardstick, just to speculate on how mighty some humdumb market is, or could be. Give me and Nell Carter an effin' break. Look at coastal Carolina, Hanover County, look at the last ten years, look at the last twenty! Construction volume, divided by traffic, times cultural stagnation... Anyone can nail up four walls, but what does it mean? Florida's as much of a Gold Rush as Licorice is medicinal.

Also "not cool"? Muggy scolding people for "name-spoofing." I bet you're proprietary about your super-cool PIN, too. News flash: I've got the same combination on my luggage.

If you look at history 8 of the last 10 realestate booms ended in a recession. In 1929 it was a depression. But I guess this time will be different. Oh this is kind of like blogging with sybal.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Muggy

I have no idea what this means. We're not comparing Florida to New York. Don't name spoof either - not cool.

To the real Shores9, are foreclosures up or not?

Muggy I really thought that I would take a few days r&r from this thread but first the Shores8 thing and now shores10.

Wow I mean wow!!! Cat in the hat and magic yardstick - good grief - good grief really degenerating - What will we be hearing next:

"I know what you're thinking, did he fire 5 bullets or 6. Do you feel lucky? Well do ya punk?"

I was going to respond to your last question and will but for now I’m just gonna watch!

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Shores9

Muggy I really thought that I would take a few days r&r from this thread but first the Shores8 thing and now shores10.

Wow I mean wow!!! Cat in the hat and magic yardstick - good grief - good grief really degenerating - What will we be hearing next:

"I know what you're thinking, did he fire 5 bullets or 6. Do you feel lucky? Well do ya punk?"

I was going to respond to your last question and will but for now I’m just gonna watch!

Shores9, I have no idea why people are spoofing you. I dinged Shores8 and I'll ding Shore10. Why would I trash my own thread?

Please keep this discussion focused on your own opinion / links to sources that refute or support whether or not you believe there is a bubble in the Florida housing market. Please!

And we're not comparing FL an NY, who came up with that?! Thanks!

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Shores10

"If you look at history 8 of the last 10 realestate booms ended in a recession. In 1929 it was a depression."

Good point. Our economy is 225 years old, and you only had to go back 33% of that history to cite one example that would be compelling, if it were actually compelling.

Spend ten minutes getting smarter:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1929_De...the_depression

Now, are you telling me that the unsustainability of a regularly ocurring uptick in the U.S. real estate market crashed the world economy?

I smell more donkey farts. Heeeeyaaawwww...

Also, you spelled Sybil wrong.

Well, the way I look at it is Buy Gold. I think the bubble is over and its a bear now. I don't understand the Donkey fart thing, but for each there own.

[MrTudo]

. The point is, since gold is an element that exists in a relatively small quantity worldwide, actions over which you have no control can result in sharp price swings. Because of this, professionals caution that you should not commit more than 5 percent of your total investment portfolio to gold, or to a diversified basket of commodities that would include precious metals, oil, and other natural resources.

QUOTE]

That's a cliche' ( 5% diversification). The same people advise holding rare coins for 3-5 years and only buying gem uncirculated coins. Generally speaking those "pro's" are "phone-room" pros and have less of a clue then the people they are pitching to.

[Muggy]

Originally Posted by Shores10

*Mugsy, Why do you want to know if this dude thinks there's a housing bubble? You can't be thinking of prospecting down there! If you are, I also have a bridge to sell you, hit me up.

Ok, first of all, name spoofing is not cool. Second, I have no idea whether or not you believe there is a housing bubble. This is a thread to discuss whether or not you believe there is a Florida housing bubble. It's clear that you don't think housing will lead to a depression, but recession maybe?

Next issue: I am not prospecting. I actually live in Florida and I would be interested in owning a home at some point - one to occupy, not leave empty for a year and expect to sell for twice what I paid. I started this thread last summer after going to 20+ open houses in the Pinellas County area (Tampa/St. Pete region). I was speechless after seeing the condition of some of the homes combined with the asking prices. I wanted a way to gauge whether or not this is normal for the area. As it turns out, it may not be. This was *before* the insurance crisis hit - I mean *really* hit. Now there are fraud issues being exposed as well. And "Save Our Homes" is putting a lot of weight on new buyers.

This issue is very important to me. If I cannot find decent housing I will simply move. There are many reasons why I would move, but the purpose of this conversation is specifically whether or not a housing bubble exists. Not if you hated your NYC commute, not if you don't like Florida traffic, not if you get paid more in Boise, not if you're "owning the dream."

It is simply this: is Florida housing in line with fundamentals? I say no. If I'm "priced out forever" then so be it. But I am seeing more and more people who are getting "priced in." You can't create a healthy economy by selling $400k POS stucco boxes to Suzy hairdresser. People have been cheerleading real estate like crazy... 2 Years ago they would have been correct since there where still a few rungs left in the ponzi scheme to climb, but my feet have been on the ground the whole time; I've nowhere to fall.

Florida sowed, and is starting to reap.

[firemed]

Originally Posted by Muggy

Ok, first of all, name spoofing is not cool. Second, I have no idea whether or not you believe there is a housing bubble. This is a thread to discuss whether or not you believe there is a Florida housing bubble. It's clear that you don't think housing will lead to a depression, but recession maybe?

Next issue: I am not prospecting. I actually live in Florida and I would be interested in owning a home at some point - one to occupy, not leave empty for a year and expect to sell for twice what I paid. I started this thread last summer after going to 20+ open houses in the Pinellas County area (Tampa/St. Pete region). I was speechless after seeing the condition of some of the homes combined with the asking prices. I wanted a way to gauge whether or not this is normal for the area. As it turns out, it may not be. This was *before* the insurance crisis hit - I mean *really* hit. Now there are fraud issues being exposed as well. And "Save Our Homes" is putting a lot of weight on new buyers.

This issue is very important to me. If I cannot find decent housing I will simply move. There are many reasons why I would move, but the purpose of this conversation is specifically whether or not a housing bubble exists. Not if you hated your NYC commute, not if you don't like Florida traffic, not if you get paid more in Boise, not if you're "owning the dream."

It is simply this: is Florida housing in line with fundamentals? I say no. If I'm "priced out forever" then so be it. But I am seeing more and more people who are getting "priced in." You can't create a healthy economy by selling $400k POS stucco boxes to Suzy hairdresser. People have been cheerleading real estate like crazy... 2 Years ago they would have been correct since there where still a few rungs left in the ponzi scheme to climb, but my feet have been on the ground the whole time; I've nowhere to fall.

Florida sowed, and is starting to reap.

Yes, its a bubble that has a bad leak. some people are just upset with the fact its getting well known. Its called denial.
The Herald Tribune reports from Florida. “The torrent of unpalatable real estate data is enough to ruin some folks’ holiday appetite. But there might be some good news despite the fact that the Sarasota-Bradenton market led the state in the third quarter with an 11 percent erosion in median sales price.” “Charlotte, Manatee and Sarasota counties seem, so far, to be bucking a trend of rising foreclosures. The three-county area registered 997 foreclosures during the third quarter. That was an increase of about 32 percent from the second quarter but down 30 percent when compared with the same time last year.”

[firemed]

Originally Posted by firemed

Foreclosures are on the rise and are based on 1/4 delinquencies
We are still going to have to play the waiting game to find out if the housing slowdown is going to be enough to pull America into a recession, but it is surely going to be something to contend with over the next year. We have already started to see the impact during July through September when economic growth came in at a 1.6% percent rate. The weakening housing market was blamed for shaving a full percentage off the rate.

Muggy here is some info on the foreclosures in the 3rdQ
Foreclosures are up in most U.S. cities. Nationally, 318,355 properties in the United States entered some stage of foreclosure during the third quarter. That was a 17 percent increase from the prior quarter and up nearly 43 percent from the same quarter in 2005.
Nationally, one home in 363 was in foreclosure during the third quarter while in Florida it was one in 182, RealtyTrac reported.