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Or (so you have a choice), pick three of the following concerns I have and discredit them:
Foreclosures up
Volume Down
Prices Stagnant
Auctions increasing
Record # of exotic Loans
Citizens clients increase
Insurance increases
Save our Homes Disparities
Taxes squeezing people
School enrollment off
Appraisal Fraud
Closing Fraud
FBI Investigations into lending
State Investigations into lending
40 and 50 year mortgages will occupy a large portion of the lending business within a few years. Watch and see. The sheep will go for that right quick.
The percentage of home purchasing will go up, but actual ownership by most people will be gone forever. A very small percentage of people will ever own their homes outright.
The country has been going in a counter direction to what the idea of this place was all about to begin with and one of the remaining planks of the manifesto that has not been adopted has been on the issue of property rights and that property being controlled by the state and administered by a central bank. Read the manifesto and you tell me if I'm off here. Property rights have been attacked over and over and over and it's unrelenting. It's getting to a point where a bird has more rights to your property than you do. Now how do they push this over the top? The centralized bank ( the fed ) gives money away, thereby creating this huge bubble and then to put the final nail in the coffin, they "allow" banks to offer 40, now 50 year mortgages.
The banks/fed make out quite well on that don't they.
When I lived in West Boca, my house was 200K. That was only 8 years ago. My neighbor across the street was upper management for Fed Ex. He made 75K a year. His wife was a part time school teacher making 25K a year. Neighbor to the right was a critical care nurse in hospice making 100K a year. People in that neighborhood made roughly 100K a year and lived in 200K houses. ( Loggers Run if you must know )
Now those houses are 400K. Would someone tell me please if those people I just mentioned have seen their salaries double in the same time frame? Yes? No? If not then WHO is buying those houses and how can they afford them? Or are they buying them but will never own them?
I never believed in conspiracy theories before and believe me, in my business I've heard them all. But I'm starting to believe.
40 and 50 year mortgages will occupy a large portion of the lending business within a few years. Watch and see. The sheep will go for that right quick.
The percentage of home purchasing will go up, but actual ownership by most people will be gone forever. A very small percentage of people will ever own their homes outright.
The country has been going in a counter direction to what the idea of this place was all about to begin with and one of the remaining planks of the manifesto that has not been adopted has been on the issue of property rights and that property being controlled by the state and administered by a central bank. Read the manifesto and you tell me if I'm off here. Property rights have been attacked over and over and over and it's unrelenting. It's getting to a point where a bird has more rights to your property than you do. Now how do they push this over the top? The centralized bank ( the fed ) gives money away, thereby creating this huge bubble and then to put the final nail in the coffin, they "allow" banks to offer 40, now 50 year mortgages.
The banks/fed make out quite well on that don't they.
When I lived in West Boca, my house was 200K. That was only 8 years ago. My neighbor across the street was upper management for Fed Ex. He made 75K a year. His wife was a part time school teacher making 25K a year. Neighbor to the right was a critical care nurse in hospice making 100K a year. People in that neighborhood made roughly 100K a year and lived in 200K houses. ( Loggers Run if you must know )
Now those houses are 400K. Would someone tell me please if those people I just mentioned have seen their salaries double in the same time frame? Yes? No? If not then WHO is buying those houses and how can they afford them? Or are they buying them but will never own them?
I never believed in conspiracy theories before and believe me, in my business I've heard them all. But I'm starting to believe.
I believe if you raise the minimum wage everything else goes up along with it. If the minimum wage was 100.00 an hour and a loaf of bread was 50.00 the only thing wer'e doing is paying more taxes and raising inflation. But thats just my opinion.
I believe if you raise the minimum wage everything else goes up along with it. If the minimum wage was 100.00 an hour and a loaf of bread was 50.00 the only thing wer'e doing is paying more taxes and raising inflation. But thats just my opinion.
Absolutely and the continuous devaluation of the dollars value guarantees that.
In my business there's a saying. In 1913 when the federal reserve and income tax was born in the USA, a double eagle ( $20.00 gold coin ) would buy a man a suit of clothes as would a $20.00 Federal Reserve Note. Nowadays a bare bones worn out double eagle is worth almost $600.00 bucks and will still buy a suit of clothes whereas a $20.00 Federal Reserve note ......?
In the 1920's , 30 of those double eagles would buy a new Ford. So would $600.00 in Fed Reserve notes. Those same double eagles today, even in very worn condition would net roughly $18,000.00 and would still buy a new Ford ( Or Honda! ). Meanwhile that 600 bucks in federal reserve notes..........
Absolutely and the continuous devaluation of the dollars value guarantees that.
In my business there's a saying. In 1913 when the federal reserve and income tax was born in the USA, a double eagle ( $20.00 gold coin ) would buy a man a suit of clothes as would a $20.00 Federal Reserve Note. Nowadays a bare bones worn out double eagle is worth almost $600.00 bucks and will still buy a suit of clothes whereas a $20.00 Federal Reserve note ......?
In the 1920's , 30 of those double eagles would buy a new Ford. So would $600.00 in Fed Reserve notes. Those same double eagles today, even in very worn condition would net roughly $18,000.00 and would still buy a new Ford ( Or Honda! ). Meanwhile that 600 bucks in federal reserve notes..........
I'm very disappointed with the ad hominem attacks that have blurred, confused and otherwise mislead the readers of this thread. While realtors on this board are constantly attacking the character of other authors, calling newspapers liars, and generally not answering any questions of value, one thing remains true: exactly none of them are willing to post meaningful information about today and the future.
Hindsight, as we all know, is 20/20. This is not 2003. 20% a year is over.
If realtors were sincere about their beliefs they would be working to assuage potential homebuyers’ (like myself) fears regarding potential losses due to recent unnatural market gains. Instead they choose to ignore valid questions and constantly refer to gains of years past.
So this is my ultimatum to Shores9 & Scamutz:
Muggy, I never claimed to be well versed in real estate speculation or prediction. As I've mentioned in the past, I am not in general real estate. Yes, I have a real estate license, but I am in new home sales. My input on this site has been primarily personal experience from my own real estate dealings, or insider knowledge on new home construction. I don't do competitive market analyses, and don't set pricing for the homes that I sell.
Here's what I know. One year ago, my prices were about 10-12% higher than they are now and I had people camping out on my front porch for the opportunity to buy a home from me.
From January-August of this year, we were totally dead. I didn't sell one home and took back the majority of the homes that I had sold due to cancelled contracts, traffic was abysmal.
From August-December, I have been selling 2-3 homes/month. This is comparable to what it has always been in a "normal" market (1994ish). My traffic is up to about 15/week coming through my model and has been improving weekly. That is a fairly strong number.
While I'm not breaking any records, I would be perfectly happy if it continued like this for the rest of my career; It keeps up a level of professionalism in the business and allows me to have time to take care of customers the way that I would like to.
I expect things to continue like this, and slowly improve as the inventory in the market is reduced. My prediction is that by this time next year, we have gotten back 5 of the 10% that we lost.
If Gov. Crist actually comes through with portability for "Save our Homes" and the insurance companies are reigned in, I expect sales to again go through the roof.
. The point is, since gold is an element that exists in a relatively small quantity worldwide, actions over which you have no control can result in sharp price swings. Because of this, professionals caution that you should not commit more than 5 percent of your total investment portfolio to gold, or to a diversified basket of commodities that would include precious metals, oil, and other natural resources.
QUOTE]
That's a cliche' ( 5% diversification). The same people advise holding rare coins for 3-5 years and only buying gem uncirculated coins. Generally speaking those "pro's" are "phone-room" pros and have less of a clue then the people they are pitching to.
MrTudo,
Since I assume that this is your specialty...if you have time, I'd love to see a post in the General category (or anywhere) with your recommendations for investing in precious metals/coins.
In all honesty, Realtors are just repeating the babble that is tossed to them from the NAR, heck in NARdi Gras this year (the convention was held in New Orleans, Nov 10-13 '06), David Lereah, pushed in his Power Point Presentation, entitled, "The Road to Recovery", that the ever so evil media was feeding a false craze about a bubble... SOOOOO, what Agents will remember and adhere to when marketing/cheerleading is that There Is NO Bubble and the spinning starts. I am not attacking RE Pros (that is my line of work too), but you must stop and be honest with folks.
Granted, not all areas of the US have been affected, but Florida certainly has.
I just pulled a box from the top of my pantry down to get something and I found the Ocala Star Banner from April 23, 2006 in it. I thumbed through it and noticed a DR Horton ad for Marion Oaks (Ocala).
This is NOT an advetisment for any builder or RE company, ONLY an example of what is happening in the past 6-7 months.
AD Reads: Welcome Home America
We Think You'll Be Very Happy Here
Marion Oaks
NOW SELLING from the $190's
(1/4 are lots included in price!)
*Three or four bedroom homes ranging from 1580 - 2664 square feet.
*Great location, convenient to I-75, shopping and medical facilities.
$5,000 OFF the price of your Home! Plus a FREE Refrigerator AND washer & Dryer!
D*R*HORTON PAYS ALL CLOSING COSTS!
Today, I went to the DR Horton website and found that the prices are NOW starting in the $160's with YOUR CHOICE
Purchase a DR Horton home in this community and
Combine your choices below to equal up to a:
$50,000 COMMUNITY SAVINGS PACKAGE
*Sales Price Reduction
*Washer/Dryer and Refrigerator
*Installed Custom Mini-Blinds
*Distinctive Floor Options
*Homeowners Association Fees
*Interest Rate Buydowns
*New Home Prices Reflect Community Savings Package
So, yes, prices are on the decline with builders (as well as pre-existing homes on the market), I watch, it is happening all over the state. I know that if I had bought a home here, I would be very angry over the fact that my new neighbor got their identical home for a lot less only 7 months AFTER I did. As a RE Agent, I would be ashamed to have have walked my buyer (who must have thought they were getting a GRAND deal) into a deal like that knowing that things where not kosher (No place in history has a home’s value skyrocketed 100-150% in just two or three years).
Here is a slide from the NARdi gra presentation:
http://www.newandusedhomes.com/NAR/06NovPPTNARdiGra.gif (broken link)
In all honesty, Realtors are just repeating the babble that is tossed to them from the NAR, heck in NARdi Gras this year (the convention was held in New Orleans, Nov 10-13 '06), David Lereah, pushed in his Power Point Presentation, entitled, "The Road to Recovery", that the ever so evil media was feeding a false craze about a bubble... SOOOOO, what Agents will remember and adhere to when marketing/cheerleading is that There Is NO Bubble and the spinning starts. I am not attacking RE Pros (that is my line of work too), but you must stop and be honest with folks.
Granted, not all areas of the US have been affected, but Florida certainly has.
I just pulled a box from the top of my pantry down to get something and I found the Ocala Star Banner from April 23, 2006 in it. I thumbed through it and noticed a DR Horton ad for Marion Oaks (Ocala).
This is NOT an advetisment for any builder or RE company, ONLY an example of what is happening in the past 6-7 months.
AD Reads: Welcome Home America
We Think You'll Be Very Happy Here
Marion Oaks
NOW SELLING from the $190's
(1/4 are lots included in price!)
*Three or four bedroom homes ranging from 1580 - 2664 square feet.
*Great location, convenient to I-75, shopping and medical facilities.
$5,000 OFF the price of your Home! Plus a FREE Refrigerator AND washer & Dryer!
D*R*HORTON PAYS ALL CLOSING COSTS!
Today, I went to the DR Horton website and found that the prices are NOW starting in the $160's with YOUR CHOICE
Purchase a DR Horton home in this community and
Combine your choices below to equal up to a:
$50,000 COMMUNITY SAVINGS PACKAGE
*Sales Price Reduction
*Washer/Dryer and Refrigerator
*Installed Custom Mini-Blinds
*Distinctive Floor Options
*Homeowners Association Fees
*Interest Rate Buydowns
*New Home Prices Reflect Community Savings Package
So, yes, prices are on the decline with builders (as well as pre-existing homes on the market), I watch, it is happening all over the state. I know that if I had bought a home here, I would be very angry over the fact that my new neighbor got their identical home for a lot less only 7 months AFTER I did. As a RE Agent, I would be ashamed to have have walked my buyer (who must have thought they were getting a GRAND deal) into a deal like that knowing that things where not kosher (No place in history has a home’s value skyrocketed 100-150% in just two or three years).
Here is a slide from the NARdi gra presentation:
http://www.newandusedhomes.com/NAR/06NovPPTNARdiGra.gif (broken link)
Its nice to have a real estate professional post. Thanks for the truth.
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