Real Estate Bubble Poll (Tampa, Orlando: mortgage, environment, credit)

[Shores9]

ABC action News said on tonight’s news that real estate is a steal and there are great deals to be had.

ABC say’s now is a good time.

Get your Dream Home Now “buyers can really “Clean Up”


Who am I to say – if it’s on the news it must be true. I just follow the numbers

It “the bubble” started with the media and now looks like it is about to change with the media.

[RVJ]

Nice, interesting reading that is...specially now that I'm looking around to buy in NE Florida.. thinking lease-buy- options might make more sense in harder-to-sell properties or outright buying under market values a few months down the line...

[Nomoresubways]

Shores, I saw the same thing on the news last night. Made me chuckle a little. I also saw an article in the NY Times last week that said pretty much the same thing. So even if this whole housing market bubble is a manipulation by the media, seems to me they are swinging it back into gear now with their "buy now!" mentality.

I am selling my house in NY (yes I know, completely irrelevant to this post and forum). If I could, I'd just take it off the market until March but I'm tied into a contract with my broker. The only people looking right now are those trying to get a bargain. I got one offer that was 20% less than my asking price. The funny thing is, the inventory is creaping slowly down. So once March comes around, with a somewhat normal inventory, I expect a normal selling season.

As far as Florida, i think it is definitely a little more stagnant. But, I think you will see that between foreign investors taking advantage of the weak dollar, yankees (such as myself) either relocating altogether or springing for a second home, and those on the fence will push the demand a little closer to supply sometime by summer.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not a realtor, nor do I have any solid evidence to whip out in my defense. Let's call it a gut feeling. I had the same gut feeling 2 years ago with Apple stock, just as I did about 3 months ago with Cisco, and now a month ago with HP. Those have all turned into decent gut feelings...

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

Shores, I saw the same thing on the news last night. Made me chuckle a little. I also saw an article in the NY Times last week that said pretty much the same thing. So even if this whole housing market bubble is a manipulation by the media, seems to me they are swinging it back into gear now with their "buy now!" mentality.

I am selling my house in NY (yes I know, completely irrelevant to this post and forum). If I could, I'd just take it off the market until March but I'm tied into a contract with my broker. The only people looking right now are those trying to get a bargain. I got one offer that was 20% less than my asking price. The funny thing is, the inventory is creaping slowly down. So once March comes around, with a somewhat normal inventory, I expect a normal selling season.

As far as Florida, i think it is definitely a little more stagnant. But, I think you will see that between foreign investors taking advantage of the weak dollar, yankees (such as myself) either relocating altogether or springing for a second home, and those on the fence will push the demand a little closer to supply sometime by summer.

Now don't get me wrong. I'm not a realtor, nor do I have any solid evidence to whip out in my defense. Let's call it a gut feeling. I had the same gut feeling 2 years ago with Apple stock, just as I did about 3 months ago with Cisco, and now a month ago with HP. Those have all turned into decent gut feelings...

Funny thing about gut feelings is that that is what most people go on to start. That’s where momentum begins. There are no gut feelings left about this market correction -- the market correction has come.

The gut feeling now is that it soon may go and as more come to the same conclusion the market will rebalance.

Inventory is holding steady if not trending down, prices are holding steady if not slightly up. New home builder sales are picking back up and their incentives are starting to slim down.

The major change is seller’s expectation. Last year it was totally unrealistic to think that you could just lump on another 20% from the previous similar home sale next door.

The value that most sellers wanted was just not supported; I had argued this on several listing appointments over a year ago. Those that wouldn’t listen I didn’t take the listing. Those who were realistic then and now have sold.

In this so called media hyped bubble we have quietly surpassed 2002 and 2003’s sales numbers in volume and in price and we continue to exceed 04 and 05 in price. That not media hype that’s fact.

Muggy please don’t get impatient – I will answer your challenge but your questions need additional consideration and time.

[Nomoresubways]

I can definitely vouch for Shore's statement about homebuilder's trimming their incentives. The same home builder I bought from a few weeks ago has stopped many of the incentives that drew me into their community. They stirred up enough interest in their community to sell off the remainder of their inventory homes by the end of the fiscal year, without pulling out the heavy artillery (incentives) that I was able to take advantage of. One example does not make a market, but you can just see the twinkle in the eye of those patient enough to wait out the storm and start the buying frenzy. I may exaggerate in my use of words, but there will be those that take advantage and make out well, and those that sit on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets wondering "what if".

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

I can definitely vouch for Shore's statement about homebuilder's trimming their incentives. The same home builder I bought from a few weeks ago has stopped many of the incentives that drew me into their community. They stirred up enough interest in their community to sell off the remainder of their inventory homes by the end of the fiscal year, without pulling out the heavy artillery (incentives) that I was able to take advantage of. One example does not make a market, but you can just see the twinkle in the eye of those patient enough to wait out the storm and start the buying frenzy. I may exaggerate in my use of words, but there will be those that take advantage and make out well, and those that sit on the sidelines with their hands in their pockets wondering "what if".

Definitely the worst is behind us. Barring exogenous shock it can only get better. The Insurance industry is getting put in their place – outrageous rate hikes are getting turned down. There’s a major revolt underway on taxes. Interest Rates are still low and talk is 50/50 that the fed will lower rates some time next year q1 or q2. Extremely low unemployment, even lower in Florida. Migration patters favoring southern states.

This is not rocket science

[Nomoresubways]

Granted, it's not the world's most reliable newspaper, but the Orlando Sentinel has an article today stating that construction jobs are on the rise again, thanks mostly to some very large commercial projects on the wing. While not all residential construction workers have transferrable skills over to the commercial side, a good portion of the workers do and are finding jobs. That should more than soften the blow that the slowdown is thought to cause in the employment scenario.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/custom/growth/orl-construction27_106nov27,0,7628963.story?coll=orl-home-headlines</url>

Also, let's not forget, baby boomers are getting older and that means more people retiring. Those people are retiring somewhere. Granted, they may not flock to the coastal areas anymore because of the exacerbated insurance rates, but they still will head to Florida in droves.

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Below is the entire PPT link from the NAR, now; you have to remember it is geared toward marketing and making the most of the declines (as of right now) and informing their members on how to look at the issue from the spin cycle. Again, it is all about Marketing in the eyes of many a salesman. Many agents are groomed to make Sellers AND Buyers feel all warm and fuzzy… Pish Posh, Just be honest with everyone… My broker always told me to treat everyone I met like my client or customer, not to be-little or talk down to them (that is just rude and shows your true nature).

I think all the info, if taken in and processed, along with some good old common sense, will help you discern an answer (no matter what it is), but, you can twist anything to suit your own need. This is 40 pages/frames long. Please, just take it all in with a grain of salt:
realtor.org/Research.nsf/files/06NovResForum3.ppt/$FILE/06NovResForum3.ppt


Once again, FL is in a precarious moment of time as far as the Real Estate Market goes. It is very over inflated.

Also, now is the slowest season of the year for listings (nationwide) wait till spring, more homes will be on the market. As far as New Construction goes… A LOT of it is now turning into RENTAL Property, Buy Owner and Lease-to-Own due to sluggish sales (this removes many of the units from the MLS’s current listings and creates an illusion of decreased new construction on the market, when in reality, it is still there, just now offered with rental payments that are more often than not, lower than an actual mortgage payment for the same property would be right now).

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

Once again, FL is in a precarious moment of time as far as the Real Estate Market goes. It is very over inflated.

Also, now is the slowest season of the year for listings (nationwide) wait till spring, more homes will be on the market. As far as New Construction goes… A LOT of it is now turning into RENTAL Property, Buy Owner and Lease-to-Own due to sluggish sales (this removes many of the units from the MLS’s current listings and creates an illusion of decreased new construction on the market, when in reality, it is still there, just now offered with rental payments that are more often than not, lower than an actual mortgage payment for the same property would be right now).

Who's spinning who here???????

[Nomoresubways]

Ocala, are you saying that builders are renting their unsold new construction homes? Or are you just saying that people that purchased new construction are putting these up for rent now since they aren't selling? Just trying to get a clearer picture.

Renting out a house right now is actually pretty wise. There seems to be decent demand and it sure as hell beats having it sit unoccupied for months at a time.