[Floridamex]

Originally Posted by Nomoresubways

I think you have to remember that in Florida at least the slowdown probably didn't start until spring of '06, so you had even higher prices going into summer, at which point they have stagnated a little. I have no doubt that there is a year over year increase, but I'd have to say 95% of that was before May. I could be terribly wrong.

I work for a county in zoning and I can tell you next Q4 the numbers will be way down. also development orders will be very bad for next year.

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by bamboosmom

Zillow is usually inaccurate.

I've found zillow to be right on, on what a house sold for. It's public record anyway. However I have seen it be inaccurate on Sq ft and estimated value.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

Here is the FL Association of Realtors Stats on Realtor Sales in the state.

It is broken down in Years as well as by Area... Pretty self-explanatory and easy to follow.
media.living.net/statistics/statisticsfull.htm

But, knowing that markets are all locally defined, what a home on one block sells for can be a far cry from an identical home less than a mile away.

PS BTW

I don’t know Ocala this is your area but looking at the Florida association of Realtors data sets you provided

Median Home prices for Ocala
2004 = $109,600
2005 = $142,000 + 32.8% from 2004
September 2006 = $ 168,000 +15.5% from 2005

September 2006 median sales price in Ocala is 34.8% higher than in 2004 and has not seen a monthly decline for as far back as your chart would allow which was 1994

Your locally defined market seems to be doing rather well. I don’t understand what position you have here could you explain?

[shannon94]

Originally Posted by bamboosmom

Oh gosh, we all know that home prices were/are dropping because people are desparate. We weren't desparate luckily. We kept our price and got what we wanted. It all depends on how your home shows also and what your home has in it. People are dropping their prices because they need to.
If you are trying to sell a basic Florida home here in Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda with no frills and dills then you will not get the higher selling price.
The homes with the amenities still sell for more. Common sense will tell you that. It's like comparing a diamond to a rhinestone.

No offense Bamboo....but you did drop your price from what I've read. By the way...all that aside....congrats on selling....glad you got out.

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by Floridamex

I work for a county in zoning and I can tell you next Q4 the numbers will be way down. also development orders will be very bad for next year.

Could you please tell us what county/region or at least what q4 numbers you quote. Are you referring to new building permits here, land clasification change request or what?

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

The entire U.S. did not see the steroidal growth spurt that FL (and some other areas) have. I have not seen it.

I own three homes in three OTHER states and Not a One of them appreciated more than a few thousand dollars (a normal rate) each year, none have doubled in price, not even after 5 years.... Now the one that is paid off had a good gain, but it was purchased via a 203K at well below market in 95, but it was gutted and rehabbed from the footers up.

YES, markets (all of them) are local; any one who has ever tried to buy or sell can figure that out, most people are actually quite intelligent. That is not a spin either.

Locally, I have seen no real gains, lots and lots of "Reduced", "Make Offer", "Seller Motivated", “Must Sell” signs and ads... Homes in my neighborhood are not selling and many builders are still building homes that sit empty (even many rentals sit empty) I have 4 empty New homes on my block. One builder has three homes in a row all for sale, all never lived in and all on the market for at least 12 months that I know of... I pass them daily. The house behind us was purchased for $110K in 5/03 (2100 heated sq ft, 2 car garage on .8 acre lot), same house still empty after 6 months on the opposite corner is listed (with 2 reductions) at $239K. hmmmm, I just do not know what to think about that, if it has anything to due with the sudden exaggerated pricing that magically appeared in this area. One day a 800 sq ft 2 bed home is $40K, the next with a coat of paint over the lovely cinderblock exterior, it is $119K?
Am I just so “old School” that I find it almost criminal? Maybe, but to a small family or a young couple who does not know that the hosue was inflated over 100%, it may seem like a steal compared to NYC or NJ. Right?

I do know a husband and wife RE team in Naples, they are both looking for new jobs because their market is dead with price drops, very slow sales, slow to no new housing starts and deflation going on right now. The past few years let them live like the rich and famous, they bought new hummers and a lovely condo and now, they can not afford it all.

My cousin bought a home in Navarre (near Elgin AFB) and paid 100% more than the previous owner had only 22 months prior (abnormal appreciation, maybe a bubble house?) I wish I could have chatted with him before he bought, because he was livid with his agent after I showed him how to locate all the tax and sales history info (his agent should have been up front?). He said he would never have bought it, but rented if had known. Well, I know three people who giggled all the way to the bank on that one. Now, His Company closed and he took a new position with another Aircraft Manufacturer and moved, he can not rent the home in Navarre to cover the mortgage, taxes and insurance… He can not sell it for what he has in it, because prices have not moved up. Oh well, the bright side (if there is one) could be that he did use a traditional FRM.

What happened to all the Ethical Guidelines and Moral Standards that I recall from class and hours of continuing education… I see very little of it here.

Again, I am not spinning anything. I have No Reason to, I am NOT trying to sell myself or my professional wares. I am not trying to look like a know it all. I am not doing anything more than expressing my very own opinion and experience; which includes being a co-owner of a concrete company in the builder’s trade, I have worked from the dirt end of this industry to the sales end. I got out of Real Estate in March, when I made a semi-permanent move back to FL. Who knows, I might go obtain my Broker’s License, I might not. But, I still stay active with other agents in other states.

BTW, I would never be-little others or poke fun at their experience or opinions’. That would just be a Massive Character Flaw.

I whole-heartedly enjoy reading most people’s posts and assessments of the Housing Bubble topic, it shows me that some people can form their very own thoughts and interpretations to all the activity as well as the pros and cons that they see. I enjoy reading what other Buyers, Sellers and Existing Residents express.

I have more Santa Shop’n to do, I have to go adopt an iDog for one of the rug rats!

[MyHomeIsInOcala]

Originally Posted by Shores9

PS BTW

I don’t know Ocala this is your area but looking at the Florida association of Realtors data sets you provided

Median Home prices for Ocala
2004 = $109,600
2005 = $142,000 + 32.8% from 2004
September 2006 = $ 168,000 +15.5% from 2005

September 2006 median sales price in Ocala is 34.8% higher than in 2004 and has not seen a monthly decline for as far back as your chart would allow which was 1994

Your locally defined market seems to be doing rather well. I don’t understand what position you have here could you explain?

Shores, I have stated before, I personally put little trust into ANYTHING the NAR or their state sub-lings quote. I only know what I personally see going on. Even as a Former Realtor, I would believe only some of what I hear and maybe half of what they publish. So, you take it with a grain of salt. I still read it, it makes for good conversational comps. For years, my personal experience with sales never seemed to match the numbers that where quoted and I worked with a National Company.

I also posted FACTUAL info on one of the big builder in Ocala earlier in the thread, and if the quoted price gains are so accurate in Ocala, why are the builders begging for buyers, dropping selling prices and offering $50K in options? Maybe it is just out of the kindness of their hearts?? I would rather they actually take $50K off the sales price, who needs the upgrades? I sure don't, just give me a reduction! And that is only November vs. April of 2006.

I am gonna squeak this in here:

When I first came back for the winter of '04, Deltona Corp. and others had Billborads along the roads stating "Homes starting in the low $90's" before Jan '05, she signs were removed. Now they read things like "A place to build my mini-mansion "Dream Home". Go Figure!

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

Locally, I have seen no real gains, lots and lots of "Reduced", "Make Offer", "Seller Motivated", “Must Sell” signs and ads... Homes in my neighborhood are not selling

Again, I am not spinning anything. I have No Reason to, I am not doing anything more than expressing my very own opinion and experience;

BTW, I would never be-little others or poke fun at their experience or opinions’. That would just be a Massive Character Flaw.



I have more Santa Shop’n to do, I have to go adopt an iDog for one of the rug rats!

Ps statistically speaking where does LOTS AND LOTS FIT INTO THE NUMBERS.

If you want to truly be helpful give us some background on normal inventory then last year’s and now so we have some point of reference other than Lots and Lots

Sorry you feel that you were belittled – My stance is to quote statistics and to point out when someone is using an event to support their argument like lots and lots of "Reduced", "Make Offer", "Seller Motivated", “Must Sell” signs and ads. This is a personal observation used to convey the state of the current market = spin

BTW You may have not seen any gains locally but did you see the LOCAL gains in the Realtor stats posted earlier from the last 12 years

[Shores9]

Originally Posted by MyHomeIsInOcala

Shores, I have stated before, I personally put little trust into ANYTHING the NAR or their state sub-lings quote. Even as a Former Realtor, I would believe only some of what I hear and maybe half of what they publish.

You may not personally put trust in NAR or FAR – I personally ignore most of what they say too, but their stats are used by every economist Government or otherwise. These stats are the industry recognized numbers and I would take them any day over most people’s opinions. I’m not suggesting that they be used in lieu of one’s personal due diligence but to be used as a benchmark for an educated opinion.

[bamboosmom]

Originally Posted by shannon94

I've found zillow to be right on, on what a house sold for. It's public record anyway. However I have seen it be inaccurate on Sq ft and estimated value.

They do list the selling price correctly. When they do an evaluation of what a home is valued at, they are way off.