[chaotix]

March 9, 2010

Moodys: No Florida Real Estate Recovery Until the 2030s -- Seeking Alpha

Bloomberg BusinessWeek is out with a piece on Florida’s misadventures in real estate. Apparently Eaton Vance is dumping Florida municipal bonds tied to real estate deals at $.26 on the dollar.
Still no need to mark down any of those bank assets, of course. The underlying assets will bounce back, we keep hearing. Well, Moody’ssays the Florida RE market might not recover until the 2030s.


http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...s-default.html

The day when Florida’s new-resident influx is sufficient to reflate property values may not come soon, a March 2 University of Florida report said. The state won’t return to the 300,000-a- year population gains it averaged over the last 30 to 40 years until 2014 or 2015, said Stan Smith, director of the school’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research in Gainesville.
“Florida’s gone through numerous booms and busts, but it’s always been bailed out by the fact population was growing rapidly,” Distressed Debt’s Lehmann said. “That’s stopped.”

[Nomadicus]

Florida's natural resources can't support all the building that contractors can build so this might be really good news. The aquifers needs to be recharged and that can't happen with runaway building and drought conditions.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by chaotix

March 9, 2010

Moodys: No Florida Real Estate Recovery Until the 2030s -- Seeking Alpha

Bloomberg BusinessWeek is out with a piece on Florida’s misadventures in real estate. Apparently Eaton Vance is dumping Florida municipal bonds tied to real estate deals at $.26 on the dollar.
Still no need to mark down any of those bank assets, of course. The underlying assets will bounce back, we keep hearing. Well, Moody’ssays the Florida RE market might not recover until the 2030s.


Eaton Vance Dumps Dirt Bonds as Florida Land Districts Default - BusinessWeek

The day when Florida’s new-resident influx is sufficient to reflate property values may not come soon, a March 2 University of Florida report said. The state won’t return to the 300,000-a- year population gains it averaged over the last 30 to 40 years until 2014 or 2015, said Stan Smith, director of the school’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research in Gainesville.
“Florida’s gone through numerous booms and busts, but it’s always been bailed out by the fact population was growing rapidly,” Distressed Debt’s Lehmann said. “That’s stopped.”

Thanks for posting that - that is great news! I will probably be pretty close to meeting my maker by the time that happens, and I am overjoyed that hordes of people are going to stop coming here - let me enjoy the rest of my days here in what's left of my beautiful state!

[chaotix]

Originally Posted by gypsychic

Thanks for posting that - that is great news! I will probably be pretty close to meeting my maker by the time that happens, and I am overjoyed that hordes of people are going to stop coming here - let me enjoy the rest of my days here in what's left of my beautiful state!

lol. . . hordes of overly ambitious investors as well. . .

[chaotix]

Originally Posted by Nomadicus

Florida's natural resources can't support all the building that contractors can build so this might be really good news. The aquifers needs to be recharged and that can't happen with runaway building and drought conditions.

I concur, the planning and overbuilding doesn't take into account the infrastructure and other resources that need to be developed with population growth, not to mention jobs. . .

[Moderate Guy]

Originally Posted by gypsychic

Thanks for posting that - that is great news! I will probably be pretty close to meeting my maker by the time that happens, and I am overjoyed that hordes of people are going to stop coming here - let me enjoy the rest of my days here in what's left of my beautiful state!

lol, gypsy...I know where you're coming from with that...the flippers and assorthed other characters of less than honorable reputation created a mess! But please, can I just squeeze into the state with my meager trappings...not coming to flip just to take a dip (in the water), no money to buy and sell, to make a quick buck and live to tell...just wanna sit at the beach, watch the waves roll in, the gals take a swim, and sip a pina colada.

Oh, I'll be contributing to the state in the daytime as as an accountant and writer...the beach bum thing is only part-time!!!!

I know, OP, I alone won't defy Moody's..but I do believe that their forecast is a little dire...people will still come down to the Sunshine State...but you'll be seeing quality not just quantity...now that ought to be good!

[Mike1306]

Do you have a link to the actual Moody's article?

I would be interested in reading that to get some context rather than one line pulled out of it by a blogger.

[Mike1306]

I found a mention of it elsewhere and the title is misleading.

Here is what Moody's said about Florida.

Home prices won't regain peak this decade: Moody's - MarketWatch

On a regional basis, Moody's said hard-hit states such as Florida and California will be among the last to recover and "will only regain their pre-bust peak in the early 2030s, well after the nation does." Meanwhile, a decimated Wall Street will weigh on New York's recovery, although the state's overall price decline will be less severe.

I don't think reaching peak prices is needed to be considered a recovery and is exactly why I wanted to read it in context.

[Moderate Guy]

Originally Posted by Mike Peterson

I found a mention of it elsewhere and the title is misleading.

Here is what Moody's said about Florida.

Home prices won't regain peak this decade: Moody's - MarketWatch



I don't think reaching peak prices is needed to be considered a recovery and is exactly why I wanted to read it in context.

Excellent observation.

[gypsychic]

Originally Posted by Moderate Guy

lol, gypsy...I know where you're coming from with that...the flippers and assorthed other characters of less than honorable reputation created a mess! But please, can I just squeeze into the state with my meager trappings...not coming to flip just to take a dip (in the water), no money to buy and sell, to make a quick buck and live to tell...just wanna sit at the beach, watch the waves roll in, the gals take a swim, and sip a pina colada.

Oh, I'll be contributing to the state in the daytime as as an accountant and writer...the beach bum thing is only part-time!!!!

I know, OP, I alone won't defy Moody's..but I do believe that their forecast is a little dire...people will still come down to the Sunshine State...but you'll be seeing quality not just quantity...now that ought to be good!

As long as it's just to dip not flip, you can squeeze in here.

Actually, that article has made the rounds around here, and I do remember that they were just referring to the peak prices, which of course were never sustainable to begin with.

And I am ALL for the QUALITY people coming here - I will just keep it to myself as to what I consider "quality."