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Old 06-25-2010, 08:04 AM
 
Location: Orlando, Florida
43,862 posts, read 25,443,185 times
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I refuse to panic, but I wouldn't minimize the possibility of any number of things happening that has catastrophic end results.

The truth is, they were warned that drilling this deep into such a massive oil source was going to be dangerous. They didn't have the capacity to control it. Could be why Goldman Sachs and Tony Hayward sold their stocks BEFORE the fact. Who knows?

For now, probably the most sane thing to do is to continue with our daily lives, but to get some money in savings for the near future.
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Old 06-25-2010, 08:59 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GloryB View Post
I refuse to panic, but I wouldn't minimize the possibility of any number of things happening that has catastrophic end results.

The truth is, they were warned that drilling this deep into such a massive oil source was going to be dangerous. They didn't have the capacity to control it. Could be why Goldman Sachs and Tony Hayward sold their stocks BEFORE the fact. Who knows?

For now, probably the most sane thing to do is to continue with our daily lives, but to get some money in savings for the near future.
What do you think is going to happen?
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Old 06-25-2010, 10:34 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrlandoRE_Miracle View Post
What do you think is going to happen?
I will tell you one thing that is the most likely thing to happen. They are not going to be able to stop the leak period. Drilling experts are already saying the relief wells may not work in this instance. As they pump in the mud and cement it will just be blown out like it was with the top kill and when they stop pumping the the oil will again begin to flow. A second scenario is the pipe is so degraded and damaged, it will crumble, split or will break apart and the flow will continue completely uncontrollable. The pipe may not be able to contain any pressure. They are still not telling anyone the truth about what the future may be, they are just hoping and praying and working by the seat of their pants.

Mostly everybody is angling for future political and legal cover now. You can hear it in every news conference. Nobody sounds like they have any confidence in their own words.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...403337_pf.html

A reality check:
Sometimes things do not always have the best outcome no matter how hard smart people try and sometimes when the doctor says you have cancer, you do die, wars are not always won and people you put your trust in fail you, like it or not.

Last edited by mango23; 06-25-2010 at 11:01 AM..
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Old 06-25-2010, 11:08 AM
 
2,414 posts, read 3,119,364 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mango23 View Post
I will tell you one thing that is the most likely thing to happen. They are not going to be able to stop the leak period. Drilling experts are already saying the relief wells may not work in this instance. As they pump in the mud and cement it will just be blown out like it was with the top kill and when they stop pumping the the oil will again begin to flow. A second scenario is the pipe is so degraded and damaged, it will crumble, split or will break apart and the flow will continue completely uncontrollable. The pipe may not be able to contain any pressure. They are still not telling anyone the truth about what the future may be, they are just hoping and praying and working by the seat of their pants.

Mostly everybody is angling for future political and legal cover now. You can hear it in every news conference. Nobody sounds like they have any confidence in their own words.
Firms in gulf drilling are working to limit liability in spill

A reality check:
Sometimes things do not always have the best outcome no matter how hard smart people try and sometimes when the doctor says you have cancer, you do die, wars are not always won and people you put your trust in fail you, like it or not.
Thanks for the "realtiy check" but you sound like an alarmist. I'll wait and see what happens.
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Old 06-25-2010, 11:26 AM
 
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Originally Posted by OrlandoRE_Miracle View Post
Thanks for the "realtiy check" but you sound like an alarmist. I'll wait and see what happens.
A lack of alarmists is what got us where we are today.

People saying " What are you worrying about, it has never happened before", or "It will be OK, what are the chances something will go wrong".

In fact, even after the it happened they sat around maybe more worried about being alarmists and accused of over reacting then doing everything they could right from the start.
Maybe everything at this point is now hindsight and it's too late. All we can do now as you say is wait around and see what happens. Then again that is what they did in the first place and we see how that worked out.
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Old 06-25-2010, 12:38 PM
 
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Originally Posted by mango23 View Post
A lack of alarmists is what got us where we are today.

People saying " What are you worrying about, it has never happened before", or "It will be OK, what are the chances something will go wrong".

In fact, even after the it happened they sat around maybe more worried about being alarmists and accused of over reacting then doing everything they could right from the start.
Maybe everything at this point is now hindsight and it's too late. All we can do now as you say is wait around and see what happens. Then again that is what they did in the first place and we see how that worked out.
There is a difference between the government being careless at the beginning, and your chicken little scenarios.
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Old 06-25-2010, 01:13 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrlandoRE_Miracle View Post
There is a difference between the government being careless at the beginning, and your chicken little scenarios.
No, because of cause and effect. By the way, Chicken little was not wrong he did get hit in the head and told everybody about it. That would be better then someone putting their head in the sand and pretending it never happened.

Last edited by mango23; 06-25-2010 at 01:30 PM..
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Old 06-25-2010, 02:42 PM
 
3,047 posts, read 4,559,058 times
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I think the major problem here is that neither the government nor BP has been transparent from the beginning. They have only updated information after outside scientists have come out and made statements and even then sometimes deny the evidence ("it depends on how you define plume"). As long as there is such obfuscation, there will continue to be worst case scenarios that grow worse as soon as the past one has been proven to be true. And, one has to wonder why they're not being transparent. Are they trying to prevent panic or let the information out slowly to get people to accept more and more as the "new normal."

Unfortunately, we're at the stage when the only thing that can possibly be worse than we've already heard are stories about methane gas and oil seepage from the seabed (which there is video evidence of and a statement by Senator Nelson) and then speculation by scientists about the ramifications of that seepage (talk of the collapse of the seabed). In addition, due to what engineers can physically see from the ROV video (the tipping of the BOP), they then are able to speculate that the well is damaged down hole (which would explain the seepage). So, the next stage of speculation then goes to methane bubbles and explosions, tsunamis, etc. Also no official has addressed the toxic rain speculation either or the effects of a tropical system (and there is one due next week).
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Old 06-25-2010, 03:10 PM
 
2,414 posts, read 3,119,364 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mango23 View Post
No, because of cause and effect. By the way, Chicken little was not wrong he did get hit in the head and told everybody about it. That would be better then someone putting their head in the sand and pretending it never happened.
ok then, the boy who crief wolf
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Old 06-25-2010, 03:18 PM
 
1,468 posts, read 2,555,921 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OrlandoRE_Miracle View Post
There is a difference between the government being careless at the beginning, and your chicken little scenarios.
You know, there are a number of interpretations to the Chicken Little fable. One is that Chicken Little is brave and going to the king to tell him what happened even though he may look foolish was the right thing to do.
In the fable the hysteria is not created by Chicken Little but by the Fox in order to use the crises to his own advantage.. Sound familiar?
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