Northern Colorado future??? (Denver, Colorado Springs, Fort Collins: sales, how much, house)

[CO.Native.SW]

Could there someday in the next 20-30 years be a Northern Colorado (NorCo) combined metropolitan area??? Maybe it could be to CO like how the Bay Area is to CA. While some will completely dismiss this prediction, some may look deeper into the fact that this could possibly happen.

With the large population and developmental growth in Boulder, Longmont, Loveland, Fort Collins, and Greeley, could they all possibly connect someday to form a NorCo metropolitan area in itself, with no singular city dominating the metro area. Not to mention the growth of other areas like Lafayette, Superior, Louisville, etc. Granted, you would need other small towns like Berthoud, Gunbarrel, Erie, Niwot, Johnstown, Frederick, Dacono, Windsor, etc. to also grow a bit to connect as other suburbs. Its really not all that impossible to see, with the fact that Boulder almost connects to Lafayette, Superior, and Louisville, which also almost connect already to Longmont. Also, look at how Loveland and Fort Collins practically already connect as well. Another thing to note is that fact that from 2005-2010, Greeley was the fasest growing metro area in the nation. it could easily connect with Fort Collins in the next 10-15 years with more devolpmental and population growth. The toughest task to accomplish this in the next 30 years would most likely be to connect Boulder-Longmont-Louisville-Lafayette-Superior with the Loveland-FoCo area, seeing as there is vast amounts of land between Longmont and Loveland.

It could happen. Just look at how close the southern tip of the Denver metro area is to connecting with Castle Rock. Also, look at how fast the Colorado Springs metro area has grown the past 20-25 years and it will most liley eventually connect with Castle Rock someday as well.

Could anyone else see this large NorCo Metropolitan area formed if Boulder-Longmont-Louisville-Superior-Lafayette-Loveland-Fort Collins-Greeley all connect someday??? Could anyone else this happening anywhere from 25-35 years from now??? It would most likely be similar to the Bay Area in NorCal, with no one city dominationg the large area.

Thoughts???

[docwatson]

Given growth along the I-25 corridor in Weld County, I think it is happening ... economically, but also physically with unfortunately little coordinated planning for land use, employment and transportation. Without a defined center, though, I think it is always secondary to Denver. I think you hit two issues - an interconnected economic/social metropolis, which is not necessarily the same thing as communities physically growing together. To use your Bay Area comparison - there's a couple miles (?) of water between SF and Oakland (but only one BART stop); preserved open space hills between Oakland and the easternmost suburbs.

The NoCo communities in the late 1990s got together and decided that they didn't want to grow into one contiguous community, but wanted to preserve buffers of open space between them, adopting a document to this effect. Then the development lobby stepped in, dubbed I-25 the "Main Street" of Northern Colorado, got their people elected to local Councils, and snuck in taxpayer-subsidized "Urban Renewal" areas to correct "urban blight" on farmland along I-25 or in "downtown" Timnath (i.e the Wal-Mart) before the state got their act together to make this illegal. Meanwhile state funding for any sort of real public transit is looking dubious as decision-makers want to engage in highway expansion that there is no funding for.

Larimer County has taken some steps to maintain distinct cities with open space in between - i.e. the one-mile buffer between Loveland and Fort Collins., and the un-likelihood of any urban level development west of either FC or Loveland. And Boulder County, for all Boulder's wierdness, has implemented county-wide planning, meaning that Erie and maybe Longmont will connect on the east to the I-25 corridor, but Boulder Co communities won't grow into each other much more than they already do.

While I would look forward to growth of Fort Collins, becoming a real "city" with some urban feel (if I still lived there), I don't think that continuous sprawl is the best answer for NoCo. We can accomodate the same population and jobs within communities that maintain distinct physical identities and open space near to where people live, that have employment centers linked by public transit - i.e. it's not a choice between being Boulder or being SoCal. But its all up to the people what they want and to elect people who act on this. I've been surprised on this board that those who did post thought the continuous NoCo sprawl is either a done deal (can't stop "progress" - so we might as well subsidize it!) or simply didn't care (why would you protect tallgrass prairie when you can replace it with bluegrass lawns and subdivisions?)

Anyway, my .02 but I think if NoCo wants to maintain its attractiveness and quality of life for people and for businesses, we need to accomdate growth in a smart way, add employment in city centers to the extent we can, invest in a balanced transportation system, and maintain open space buffers - even small ones - between our cities.

[movingin2new]

"...Anyway, my .02 but I think if NoCo wants to maintain its attractiveness and quality of life for people and for businesses, we need to accomdate growth in a smart way, add employment in city centers to the extent we can, invest in a balanced transportation system, and maintain open space buffers - even small ones - between our cities..."

Well said, but herein lies the challenge. Everyone has a different definition of what attractiveness and quality of life for people and businesses is. We relocated to Fort Collins in late 2009 and were hit immediately with a north-south resentment. It was odd but it soon became clear that the residents at the north end of town believe (and possibly do have) different ideas about growth and land-use and progress than those at the southern end which is more recently developed. People who live on ranches have different needs than those in subs. Families with young children have different needs than those who retire. So bringing this all together even in one community is a challenge, let alone tying several communities together.

I've also noticed an incredible (and I do mean incredible) pride in identity here. People from Wellington are incredibly proud they are from Wellington and don't mistake that they live in Fort Collins. People in LaPorte have tremendous pride in their historical preservation. People in Loveland don't want to be viewed as the step-child to Fort Collins and are proud in their own right. Being proud of where you live is wonderful but it can cause emotions to run high when economic decisions are made - from what I can tell.

I don't see it happening but ... ya never know. Would it be a good thing? Theoretically, yes. It would pool resources which could leverage buying on a scale of economies. It could bring wonderful resources that multiple communities could take advantage of. However, there are other factors at work.

The spread of fracking within Northern Colorado will change land use. The way water is being shared would have to adjust to growth and that may also run into geologic if not political realities.
Land zoning would have to be addressed, as would the ability for people to buy an older house and renovate it to accomodate today's larger families and larger furniture.

I'm not passing one iota of judgment here - I'm just saying that as an outsider I have observed a lot of passion in Northern Colorado residents who really, truly, want to hold onto tradition and do not want to see change. Or at least that is how it appears. I can't pass judgment on a community I haven't lived in long enough but when I see some of the passions I recognize there are strong feelings on all sides.

While some communities would definitely benefit (i.e. Berthoud and smaller communities), others may feel they are having resources diverted away from them at a steep price.

This concept has been around for awhile (Detroit and Lansing and Flint were supposed to and Tucson and Phoenix were supposed to) but it has already hit major stumbling blocks and not just housing collapse related ones...

[docwatson]

You know, I think you hit the nail on the head as to the challenges ... the different communities have different cultures and ideas and sometimes see development as a zero-sum game. One thing I have noticed in Colorado is a sort of all-or-nothing approach to growth - either a community has to shut it off (like Boulder tries to do), "keep things the same", or they need to say bring it on, maybe even subsidize it. The other stumbling block is many of the "anti-growthers" are also decidedly anti-urban. (I think some of the policies in Fort Collins have been a little less than effective as well, in part because Northern Colorado developers can't seem to figure out how to make a small-lot home with a yard!) Larimer County and Ft. Collins tried, with some success, to walk the middle path to smart growth. Two of the big challenges most states have are: 1) there is no statewide growth management laws akin to Oregon's or Washington's that would force the different communities to plan for their future together; and 2) cities are largely funded largely by sales tax, giving developers leverage over politicians who will subsidize retail development. The growth of resource economy (fracking) will certainly bring new challenges as I think both liberals and conservatives west of I-25 view their communities as "clean industry" communities.

But both Larimer and Boulder counties have fairly effective versions of what I have described, and in the late 90s Northern Colorado communities actually adopted a plan to create buffers between themselves. By 2000, two-thirds of Colorado voters we ready to vote for statewide growth management, until the costliest lobbying campaign in Colorado's history swayed the vote the other way ("too radical for Colorado!"). For Northern Colorado, the wild card was the push by developers and small communities (Johnstown, Timnath) along I -25 to throw out the whole system of regional growth management at least along the highway, plus the fact that much of the I25 corridor lies in Weld County ...

My guess is that the western communities (Longmont, Berthoud, Loveland, Fort Collins, Wellington) remain separate physically (that's pretty much a done deal) while improving transit along 287, while a pattern of suburban sprawl continues all along the I-25 corridor ...

I think it would behoove us to look at this issue as a larger community. We all hear the stories about the "progressives" who come out to protest when a new compact, urban type of development is proposed within their city; and the "conservatives" who protest when a new sprawling subdivision is planned next to their own subdivision ...

[movingin2new]

"One thing I have noticed in Colorado is a sort of all-or-nothing approach to growth -"

Yep, I noticed the same thing. You brought up very good points. The truth is, you can understand where everyone is coming from. Finding a middle ground that the majority is happy with is difficult. I don't see a solution everyone can be happy with - but perhaps someday a common answer will present itself.

[movingin2new]

I think Fort Collins and Northern Colorado are in a unique position right now. They have the opportunity (all the communities together) to shape what Northern Colorado becomes.

Fort Collins has long been a cross roads and very transient. So is SIlicon Valley, but that place is also known for the place where technology ideas are born. That is the reputation there.

When I think of North Carolina, I think of Research Triangle and educated individuals doing just that - research. When I think of Florida, it's Disney. California, Hollywood and dreams possible. Texas? Oil. Michigan? Cars. Pennsylvania? Coal mining.

When I thought of Colorado, I always thought of Rocky Mountains and Denver.

What does Northern Colorado want to be known for? Fort Collins and Loveland can lead the way in shaping this entire area into something. Whether that something is wonderful or not will depend on what happens in the next 3 to 5 years.

The discovery of the shale and fracking that is exploding here presents an interesting situation in that it can turn Northern Colorado away from its image of nature and into a landscape littered with oil wells. It will build a reputation as blue collar since those are the types of jobs that drilling brings (with a few engineers). Think off shore drilling. Pays well, (because it's dangerous) but no college degree required - very blue collar industry.

The presence of the ACE - should that take root and a solid hold, could turn Northern Colorado into a place known for a combination of Research Triangle and Silicon Valley - where ideas are born and research conducted. It would build a reputation as highly educated. White collar industry.

In the past, this area was an agricultural industry but I'm not sure how much of that will remain as you move into the future.

Another thing I wonder - is anyone looking down the road? If the fracking takes off (or perhaps I should say WHEN) and there are thousands of drills dotting your landscape - once they've pulled everything from the ground? What will be left?

I think of Pennsylvania and West Virginia - filled with little downs now in decline or ghost towns because the mining pulled out and there is nothing left. The same with Northern Michigan, once the copper mining and deforesting went elsewhere - the towns died - overnight.

Think of the ghost towns from the gold and silver rushes that are all over California, Nevada, Colorado...once the stuff had been pulled - the towns died - overnight. They never recovered.

When you make your decisions about how to shape northern Colorado - what it will be known for - perhaps you may want to think even further down the road - to what will be left once the oil industry is done here.

If you want to invest in technology and research - you are definitely looking at a long-term benefit, although there will be cycles due to economic factors.

If you can prepare for the down cycles you can be better insulated against them.

I have yet to see any community recover once it's industry is gone. Think of the textile mills of the north and south east US. The canneries and the fishing industries that left the coasts. Those communities imploded and they never recovered. They are occupied primarily with people who are living below the poverty line.

I think if Northern Caolorado does it right they can avoid that inevitability by diversifying and becoming known for more than one industry.

Detroit's biggest challenge (as in most of the Midwest) is trying to figure out what to do now that manufacturing is no longer the easy ticket it once was. Illinois will fare better because of Chi-town - they are diversified enough to help them survive the downturn of manufacturing. Detroit never diversified outside of automotive and heavy manufacturing and they are paying a dear price for it. The key to their recovery will be finding something - other businesses - and I know they are trying (movies, medical, etc).

Northern Colorado - Fort Collins/Loveland - they can look at what has gone on and learn from it.

There are no quick fixes to the economic challenges and there will always be ups and down. The dot com collapse was "fixed" by a new bubble - the housing bubble. I fear that people are looking for a fix to the housing collapse by introducing a new bubble. Well - eventually, bubbles burst.

So, if you rely on the fracking to turn your economy around - what happens when they have finished pulling all they need? They'll pack up their toys and go home. What will be left of your community?

Who will want to come to a community that has to worry about things like that?

If you plan for a future that will have diversification - a reputation as a good place to do business - a business friendly place - and not just one industry ... you should see a Northern Colorado that thrives in the years to come and is continuously able to reinvent itself.

I hope the community makes wise choices - you'd hate to end up a ghost town ...