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Old 03-06-2011, 11:38 PM
 
Location: Miami
83 posts, read 110,245 times
Reputation: 88
Tampa too -- i mean, sure it COULD get hit, and its like waaaay long overdue for a BIG ONE. But considering it hasn't taken a major hit (or any really) since 1921....suffice to say along with NE FL it should be added to the list.

Worst by far:
South Florida and Pensacola/Emerald coast.
But by county, worst from top is:

1.) Monroe (Keys, Naples)
2.) Dade (Miami)
3.) Broward (Ft Lauderdale)
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Old 03-07-2011, 12:22 PM
 
3,037 posts, read 4,193,204 times
Reputation: 1195
Based on what? Did you just make up those "facts"? Or are you basing it strictly on recent history?

The reality is that Miami has only been hit twice in the last 50 years. Andrew didn't even make a direct impact as it hit Homestead. The other storm, forget the name, that hit in 2004 was a weak category 2. It caused some flooding issues and electrical outages, but not much permanent damage. Homes in Miami are also better constructed than in NE FL, so if a hurricane hits, Miami would fare better than Jax.

Tampa was hit by Charlie in 2004, although not directly. Charlie went through Orlando and came out the east coast just south of Jax. Katrina and Andrew both hit New Orleans directly. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston SC. Seems like all coastal areas in the SE United States are about equally as vulnerable.
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Old 03-07-2011, 01:07 PM
 
1,468 posts, read 2,669,601 times
Reputation: 1014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolefan34 View Post
Based on what? Did you just make up those "facts"? Or are you basing it strictly on recent history?

The reality is that Miami has only been hit twice in the last 50 years. Andrew didn't even make a direct impact as it hit Homestead. The other storm, forget the name, that hit in 2004 was a weak category 2. It caused some flooding issues and electrical outages, but not much permanent damage. Homes in Miami are also better constructed than in NE FL, so if a hurricane hits, Miami would fare better than Jax.

Tampa was hit by Charlie in 2004, although not directly. Charlie went through Orlando and came out the east coast just south of Jax. Katrina and Andrew both hit New Orleans directly. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston SC. Seems like all coastal areas in the SE United States are about equally as vulnerable.
It seems most years there is a ridge that keeps most storms south. Sometimes they can turn back out to sea but usually those highs are coming down directing the storms. It takes an unusual combination of things to bring a storm to Jacksonville. It just never seems to happen. It's not really luck, these weather patterns have a consistency to them every year making some areas of Florida more likely then others. All you have to do is look at the past and why what happened happened, not really luck. These pasterns seem to repeat themselves every year.
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Old 03-07-2011, 01:46 PM
 
3,037 posts, read 4,193,204 times
Reputation: 1195
mango23-

You are basing this on recent history, meaning the last 50 years. That is a very small sample size of time. Hurricanes run on 30 year cycles, with 1 bad decade and 2 mild decades in between. So you're barely talking more than one 30 year cycle as your evidence. During the last 30 year cycle, Jax has been lucky not getting hit and Miami has been hit indirectly twice. If you go back 200 years, I'm sure you can find times when Jax was hit more than Miami.

Like I said, Miami has been indirectly hit twice during that stretch, never directly. The last time Miami was hit directly was in the 1930's. Meanwhile, since the 1930's many other cities and regions have been hit the same number of times is Miami. New Orleans was hit twice directly, Charleston SC was hit once, Wilmington NC has been hit more than twice. Even Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christie have been hit multiple times. So I fail to see how Miami is more vulnerable than these other areas.
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Old 03-07-2011, 09:19 PM
 
Location: Miami Beach, FL
2,035 posts, read 1,697,776 times
Reputation: 710
Quote:
Originally Posted by SouthAfrica75 View Post
WRONG......

South East Florida is by far, more vulnerable of being hit by a hurriance than N.E. Florida....

Stike Probabiliy.....
Jacksonville 1 in 100
Miami 1 in 6
Yep. Statistically, the Carolinas are much more likely to get hit than NE Florida. I say look at where the 2004/2005 storms hit, since those areas are not going to be "overdue" for a big storm for a while. Well...assuming climate change doesn't alter the storm tracks!
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Old 03-08-2011, 08:34 AM
 
1,468 posts, read 2,669,601 times
Reputation: 1014
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolefan34 View Post
mango23-

You are basing this on recent history, meaning the last 50 years. That is a very small sample size of time. Hurricanes run on 30 year cycles, with 1 bad decade and 2 mild decades in between. So you're barely talking more than one 30 year cycle as your evidence. During the last 30 year cycle, Jax has been lucky not getting hit and Miami has been hit indirectly twice. If you go back 200 years, I'm sure you can find times when Jax was hit more than Miami.

Like I said, Miami has been indirectly hit twice during that stretch, never directly. The last time Miami was hit directly was in the 1930's. Meanwhile, since the 1930's many other cities and regions have been hit the same number of times is Miami. New Orleans was hit twice directly, Charleston SC was hit once, Wilmington NC has been hit more than twice. Even Houston, Galveston, Corpus Christie have been hit multiple times. So I fail to see how Miami is more vulnerable than these other areas.
I am not talking about statistics at all, I am talking about why hurricanes do what they do. It is not random they follow the weather patterns that exist at the time they come across. These patterns have a consitency to them and make what the hurricane does predictable to a degree. They seem to either keep them low and the hurricane goes in the gulf or they go north and turn out to sea and anywhere in between.

It takes a perfect combanation of weather events to happen to have one directed to Jacksonville. Where as south Florida is in the path from the moment the storm forms and begins it's march across. South Florida is almost always in the cross hairs at some point with every storm. Jacksonville pretty much never.
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Old 03-12-2011, 04:39 PM
 
3,037 posts, read 4,193,204 times
Reputation: 1195
mango-

You make no sense. You're just basing your assessment on your own opinion rather than facts. Do you realize Miami and Jacksonville are only 400 miles apart? A typical hurricane is 300-400 miles in circumference. So if Miami is in the "direct path", then Jacksonville would have to also be in the path.

Then you say the patterns are not random. Actually, yes they are. There is no pattern. Every hurricane hits in a different place and they're highly unpredictable. Just because Jacksonville hasn't been hit doesn't mean it won't get hit. Again, you probably haven't studied hurricane history beyond the last decade or 2. That is too small of a sample size to make these predictions.

Miami has only been hit twice indirectly in 50-60 years. Jacksonville hasn't been hit in the last 60 years, although one hurricane hit about 2 hours south of Jacksonville. I fail to see how your logic holds that Miami is so much more vulnerable.
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Old 06-16-2011, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Miami
83 posts, read 110,245 times
Reputation: 88
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolefan34 View Post
Based on what? Did you just make up those "facts"? Or are you basing it strictly on recent history?

The reality is that Miami has only been hit twice in the last 50 years. Andrew didn't even make a direct impact as it hit Homestead. The other storm, forget the name, that hit in 2004 was a weak category 2. It caused some flooding issues and electrical outages, but not much permanent damage. Homes in Miami are also better constructed than in NE FL, so if a hurricane hits, Miami would fare better than Jax.

Tampa was hit by Charlie in 2004, although not directly. Charlie went through Orlando and came out the east coast just south of Jax. Katrina and Andrew both hit New Orleans directly. Hurricane Hugo hit Charleston SC. Seems like all coastal areas in the SE United States are about equally as vulnerable.

Monroe County, FL - Official Website - Florida Hurricane Factoids (http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/index.aspx?NID=505 - broken link)

Ok wow, people who don't really know anything need to keep quiet

Read that link i posted from the official Monroe County FL website (since Im going to assume you don't know, that Dade's neighboring county).

"Southeast Florida and the Keys are most hurricane prone regions in the entire United States. 15 major hurricanes have impacted southeast Florida since 1851, with 13 major hurricanes striking southwest Florida and 13 major hurricanes striking the Florida panhandle: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E20.html"

Miami has not only been hit twice with hurricane conditions in the past 50 years.....so thats false. If you lived in Miami...you'd know that but ok. And lemme get this straight, Andrew makes landfall 15 miles south of the city Miami...with probably hurricane winds that extended some 50-60 miles out....and so the millions of people who suffered extreme damage say in South Miami, or Kendall, or Pinecrest....oh yeah ok - they weren't "directly" hit.....tell that to them, or their insurance companies.

And nope...no storm hit us in 2004....FALSE again lol. You really need to think before speaking

Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda...waaaay south of Tampa. You're wrong yet again..........awkward.

Neither Katrina or Andrew hit new orleans directly as Andrew hit slightly to the left and Katrina actually made landfall in mississippi to the right so wow FALSE AGAIN!!!

Bro seriously? Your post was a hotmess. I don't mind opinions but you can't be spewing out false things left and right its a problem lol
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Old 06-16-2011, 06:34 PM
 
3,037 posts, read 4,193,204 times
Reputation: 1195
Quote:
Originally Posted by unkindravens View Post
Monroe County, FL - Official Website - Florida Hurricane Factoids (http://www.monroecounty-fl.gov/index.aspx?NID=505 - broken link)

Ok wow, people who don't really know anything need to keep quiet

Read that link i posted from the official Monroe County FL website (since Im going to assume you don't know, that Dade's neighboring county).

"Southeast Florida and the Keys are most hurricane prone regions in the entire United States. 15 major hurricanes have impacted southeast Florida since 1851, with 13 major hurricanes striking southwest Florida and 13 major hurricanes striking the Florida panhandle: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E20.html"

Miami has not only been hit twice with hurricane conditions in the past 50 years.....so thats false. If you lived in Miami...you'd know that but ok. And lemme get this straight, Andrew makes landfall 15 miles south of the city Miami...with probably hurricane winds that extended some 50-60 miles out....and so the millions of people who suffered extreme damage say in South Miami, or Kendall, or Pinecrest....oh yeah ok - they weren't "directly" hit.....tell that to them, or their insurance companies.

And nope...no storm hit us in 2004....FALSE again lol. You really need to think before speaking

Charley made landfall in Punta Gorda...waaaay south of Tampa. You're wrong yet again..........awkward.

Neither Katrina or Andrew hit new orleans directly as Andrew hit slightly to the left and Katrina actually made landfall in mississippi to the right so wow FALSE AGAIN!!!

Bro seriously? Your post was a hotmess. I don't mind opinions but you can't be spewing out false things left and right its a problem lol
You are wrong on almost every bullet point, you have poor grammar skills, and you tried to wordsmith half of the stuff I said. I don't know what a "hotmess" is but if I can guess I would think it is your writing skills. All you did was wordsmith my comments by introducing the word "directly". Where did I say those storms "directly" hit those cities?

No hurricane hit us in 2004? Ever heard of Hurricane Wilma?

Charlie hit Punta Gorda directly, but caused widespread damage in Tampa and Orlando. So you're WRONG on that point.

Katrina didn't hit New Orleans? That's news to me. I seem to remember the French Quarter being flooded when the levies burst and thousands of homes being reduced to rubble.

"And lemme get this straight, Andrew makes landfall 15 miles south of the city Miami...with probably hurricane winds that extended some 50-60 miles out....and so the millions of people who suffered extreme damage say in South Miami, or Kendall, or Pinecrest....oh yeah ok - they weren't "directly" hit.....tell that to them, or their insurance companies."

Try telling that to the people of New Orleans after you said Katrina didn't hit them directly. Its funny how you interchange words like "directly" to undermine my comments, yet I specifically said "indirectly". You really are a jerk.

You can post whichever stats you want. But the fact remains that only 1 hurricane has hit the Miami area directly in the last 35-40 years at least. I am counting Andrew as the only one even though it hit 20 miles south of Miami. Wilma hit miles away further south but caused flooding in Miami. I don't care what some weather service says. That's like telling me the weather man said it might rain outside. I'm still going fishing because he's probably wrong. Every year they predict will be the worst year for hurricanes yet. They are always wrong and just make those predictions to scare people.
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Old 06-17-2011, 06:00 PM
 
Location: Hollywood FL
297 posts, read 329,587 times
Reputation: 223
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nolefan34 View Post

No hurricane hit us in 2004? Ever heard of Hurricane Wilma?
I don't know about you, but Hurricane Wilma hit MY house in 2005.
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