By this time next year, house prices will have fallen an additional 22% !! (Miami: 2010)

[heydade]

Here is the list.....

Ft.lauderdale area homes are forecasted to drop another 22% by May of next year.

Miami will be 24%

and West Palm area 17%
Top 100 markets forecast: Where home prices are headed next - May. 7, 2008



Things are finally going to get affordable by next year !!!
woooooooohooooooooooo !

[Wild Style]

^^

calm down soldier. this war is far from over. It takes traditionally 5 to 6 years for these things (housing bubbles) to bottom out. Sit back, sip your mocha latte and enjoy the show.

[Luke9686]

I agree. Far from over.

[Luke9686]

These government bailouts are only prolonging the inevitable.

[fauve]

I think the real answer for Florida and California will lie in what happens to the jumbo *prime* loans. I don't think there will be many bailouts for the perceived "rich" who run into problems. Companies like Thornburg Mortgage, who almost exclusively dealt in jumbo primes has seen their share price drop from the $26 range last August to 71 cents yesterday. And, these loans, for the most part, were given in 2004-2007 and have 5-10 year interest only ARMS. These borrowers all contributed 20% plus in downpayment. Depending on when/if the market recovers in the 5-10 year period these mortgages reset (2009-2017), and if wages remain stagnant while inflation rises, there could be some serious problems.

I don't take future forecasts too seriously - there are so many variables. They predicted in 2005, my zip - 33314 would increase in value by 125% by 2010. Yeah, right.

It is interesting that according to these figures the center of the housing crisis where there are the highest increases in foreclosure is right here at home and Sarasota. The media keeps reporting on Sacramento and Stockton being ground zero.

[Wild Style]

fauve

you can take future forecast seriously DEPENDING on who is giving it. Look at people who have solid track records like Eric Janszen, or Nourel Rabbini. Eric in particular predicted the tech bubble burst 1.5 to 2 yrs in advance, did the same with the housing bubble. He has also predicted other things. It really isn't rocket science, anyone with a economics degree OR who has been doing tons of research and self education can come up with the proper conclusions. The problem comes in when you get these people with hidden agendas giving forecast, thats when you get lead astray.

[fauve]

I'll google the names, Wild - thanks for the lead. No, it isn't rocket science - I think most people had the intuition in both the housing bubble and tech bubble that the party couldn't last forever. Certain tech stocks have done incredibly since then (think Google), and I predict certain housing markets will rebound and shine too. But where? That's the question.

[Wild Style]

^^

To figure that out you have to ask yourself a few questions

1. How bad will things get
2. How will all this economic trouble change the land scape of America
3. what places are best suited to benefit from this change/shift in the American economy and its society.

You figure those out and you will have your answer. I have my theories but I am not prepared to share them. Still doing research and observation.