Housing market in Broward (Vero Beach: mortgage broker, loans, foreclosures)

[sk071077]

When do YOU think the housing market in Broward will bottom out? And how long will it stay around the same level before rising?

[DailyJournalist]

I think a psychic reading is what you need,lol.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by sk071077

When do YOU think the housing market in Broward will bottom out? And how long will it stay around the same level before rising?

In 2009 or 2010, then bounce along from anywhere from five to 20 years, depending when the next bout of sheer idiocy and financial irresponsibility sweeps the nation.

[Wild Style]

I generally agree with bale but I think he is being a little optimistic. I think it will be 2011 to 2012, agree with him about the idiocy thing though. Anyone thinking prices will just run away like they did this last time must have no clue on how any of this works. Prices can not go above the local economy's ability to pay UNLESS you have some external artificial factor. The external factor being liar loans in this last case. So, people shouldn't be looking for it to go crazy again.

[runswithscissors]

Originally Posted by bale002

In 2009 or 2010, then bounce along from anywhere from five to 20 years, depending when the next bout of sheer idiocy and financial irresponsibility sweeps the nation.

I would agree with this because it's what happened between 1987 and 2000 Houses that were bought in 1987 sold at the exact same price up until about 1999 with a large bubble in the middle that popped, too. But there were no creative lending policies then, and that was the downfall here. The only no doc loans (invented back then) were for a few specific types of people. There were no HELOCS either.

What gives this era it's unprecedented status, though, is the creation of the irresponsible and scam mortgages with HELOCS and public acceptance of Liar Loans which changed the industry and people's perception of homeownership. Liar Loans and lying appraisals to boot. And liar mortage brokers who really didn't bother to qualify at all. Just like politicians payday is NOW and I'm going to get paid and let the future worry about itself.

Ask anyone selling mortgages throughout the 2000's and they will tell you a "successful" mortgage sale was one that including having the mortgagee accept a HELOC along with their mortgage. You got extra bonuses for that as the mortgage broker.

"Homeownership for everyone" was a political and economic concept that was put forth for politicians' gains and the greed of lenders it had nothing to do with the sociologic concept they were claiming.

Not every individual is supposed to OWN a house. And as we know, people who have things given to them without responsibility of saving for it, or even UNDERSTANDING their responsibilities do not make the best neighbors both financially and practically. Like cutting the grass and doing routine maintenance.

Look how many people here are mad they can't just "walk away" and/or MOVE just because they "feel like it". They also are ticked off that their houses aren't retaining the same artificial value. This comes from being financially unsophisticated and lacking understanding of the basic principles of how housing WORKS.

SO, now we are at a precipice with no solution. 90% of Americans are paying their mortgages but the other 10% have wreaked havoc on the economy and there are too many houses in inventory and negatively impacting the economies in pockets. And people haven't accepted that their houses are NOT GOING BACK UP IN VALUE. Not for years like the 80's cycle. YOU HAVE TO STAY IN THEM, PEOPLE.

SO, now the Congress has this genius idea with the housing package passing through the House RIGHT NOW that forces all the rest of us to cough up OUR tax dollars to bail out the deadbeats and dispose of the empty properties and foreclosure pipeline.

To me, this is the big intangible that needs a crystal ball and only time will tell what it means when the bill goes through. And you better believe it will go through because all those politicians' single goal in life is to be re-elected and they could care less about anything else in life including fairness AND the impact of their actions on the future. In case we haven't noticed it, politicians only act in short term solutions until their next elections.

So if the bill, as it's described gives millions (billions) of dollars to [WHO KNOWS WHO] "COMMUNITIES" to buy up all the foreclosures, WHO are they putting in them? The bill also provides DOWN PAYMENT ASSISTANCE. And MORE MORTGAGE programs. It has yet to be seen what type of programs but you can bet they will be very liberal because they want it to be a political SUCCESS just like before "homeownership for all".

Here we go again, the same old trick, irresponsible homeownership.

For me, a buyer the question isn't only about the bottom for pricing anymore. That's a fun question and I'm willing to wait, or buy a very small piece of crap that I could walk away from without too much financial ruin.

For me, the question is what is the future of homeownership and the implications in the NEIGHBORHOODS that I might be interested in. Florida is a unique place with "substandard" (in my view) neighborhoods or streets intermingled with "good" streets.

That's because I am shopping in the $250,000 and under category here. The marginal group. If I were shopping in the 300,000 to 500,000 category I'd have a better chance of a prediction, especially on the beach which will always retain value. I'm really only interested in a small house in a modest surrounding. I have no desire to maintain or even clean 2600 square feet. But sadly, whereas there were plenty of that type of house all throughout the east coast, those neighborhoods are a mess now.

I'm 55 and early retired (doesn't mean I'm not planning on working though). This puts me in a different demographic than a young family that has different needs and alot longer to wait out the changing neighborhoods.

So far, I am finding the best "luck" in small condo subdivisions or HOAs that have alot of mature adults. Even though they have 10% to 20% vacancies they seem to still be willing to invest their modest dollars into their communities. Versus single family houses that have eyesores on many many blocks.

What I'm absolutely sure of is that I refuse to live next to gypsies and transients that were put in their houses to fill space. So that might mean that I'm going to be a renter for some time, as opposed to my original goal in 2007 of moving here to buy.

[runswithscissors]

LOL Wild Style you sniped me. (ebay term for posting a bid at the exact same time as another bidder).

We are of the same mind.

[Wild Style]

runs with scissors,

not sure where you are from originally but, in cali and the north east, there was a housing bubble back in the 80s that went belly up. It was those savings and loans banks that caused it and the weapon of choice were the ARMs and such. Same exact situation, only difference was the prices didn't increase as much as they did this time. As a result of this, there will be a much longer correction this go round.

check this out

link

read through the articles that are there from the NY times. They show exactly what happened last time this took place and how long it took. Again, tack on some years for this present mess, seeing as how ridiculous the prices have become.

[runswithscissors]

I also wanna say that this is what happens when you tear down one nice single family home and replace it with a 4-20 story condo.

Crappy politicians and apathetic citizens. So you entice everyone from all over the country to buy something here, and end up with a concrete jungle and endless subdivisions.

And by overproducing inventory you have no filter so any old person can own in Florida, without even a glimmer of community spirit. Then when it goes bust you end up with a bunch of empty or ugly neighborhoods.

If you had replaced even a tear down with another single or duplex, we wouldn't be having any of these conversations.

[runswithscissors]

Originally Posted by Wild Style

runs with scissors,

not sure where you are from originally but, in cali and the north east, there was a housing bubble back in the 80s that went belly up. It was those savings and loans banks that caused it and the weapon of choice were the ARMs and such. Same exact situation, only difference was the prices didn't increase as much as they did this time. As a result of this, there will be a much longer correction this go round.

check this out

link

read through the articles that are there from the NY times. They show exactly what happened last time this took place and how long it took. Again, tack on some years for this present mess, seeing as how ridiculous the prices have become.

YES, that's what I was trying to say. I'm from PA. When the Houston bubble broke all the migrant labor came to my area because the late 80's had it's boom.

My house, bought in 1987 was a mess with poor carpentry etc. They couldn't build them fast enough. We did not have ARMS at that time, that happened in the 90's. And we had mandatory 20% down in almost every single situation.

Then a couple years later, the house, originally sold for 135,000 had a bubble of 225,000.

Well that didn't last. I sold it in the late 90's for 135,000. And I had already replace floors, appliances etc so it was a big nothing. That gave me the philosophy that homeownership is overrated UNLESS YOU ARE STAYING IN IT. The house today is worth 300,000, but probably will go down more...as it should. People have to stay in their damn houses to be sure of future value. LOL

Edited to add: Great link I cant wait to read it since it's actually in real time. WELL, I don't know where all those ARMS were in the early 80's and I lived right next to NJ lol. In PA we had fixed only except for the balloons on jumbos.

Maybe I wasn't paying enough attention at the naieve age of 27. I actually thought making a mortgage was making a COMMITMENT LOL.

[runswithscissors]

Wild Style, what do you think of my mediocre strategy? I respect your opinion.

There are some 55+ condos here in Vero Beach, one is fractionally on the Intracoastal near the causeway to the barrier island. The other two are not exactly on the ICW but still right at the causeways. They have some modest amenities like 2 have their own golf courses.

Some have alot of vacancies some don't. All of them have alot of snowbirds. The residents are active in their HOA. Assuming their HOA financials are in order (big assumption) I was thinking of buying one of these units to live in...probably next year. March or so when my lease is up here.

They are a giveaway, from $30,000 to about $50,000. I can live in 900 sq ft without a problem and 2 miles from the beach is a plus for me, I'm a walker, 4 miles a day sometimes.

Aside from the potential destruction or displacement by hurricane, I was thinking they would be a pretty sound deal for me at 55. They rent for as little as 450 - 500 but I would be paying cash. Even if they had hurricane assessments, if there was that level of damage in the area, I'd have to be out of pocket x amount of dollars anyway.

Also, do you know am I right that if you have an HOA assessment due to hurricane you pay yourself your insurance doesn't pay it?

What do you think?