01-12-2009, 07:50 PM
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America's Weakest Housing Markets
Deborah Orr, Forbes.com
Jan 9th, 2009
ARTICLE TOOLS:
Last year was brutal for real estate markets in Florida, California and Arizona. This year won't be much better.
In Palm Bay, Fla., a 563,000-person metro area on the central Florida coast, it's not just lush palm trees dotting the landscape--foreclosure signs are all over.
Partly to blame? The area's median home sale price has fallen by half since 2006, from $238,000 to $110,000, according to Trulia.com, an online real estate data provider. This has left many homeowners owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth.
In Pictures: America's Weakest Housing Markets
weakest1_419x98.jpg
As a result, almost 1,800 homes are in the process of being repossessed by lenders--twice as many houses as were sold in the six months between May and November.
And more foreclosures are inevitable as homeowners cut their losses and walk away from their mortgages. There are already so many empty homes that the city passed an ordinance two months ago requiring lenders to identify which abandoned properties they owned.
Farther south in Miami, it's a similar story. Online real estate data provider Zillow.com estimates that 96% of Miami's houses are losing value. Median sales prices were 22% lower than last year in the third quarter.
Out West, in Las Vegas, a crushing 98% of homes are losing value and foreclosures account for 45% of all transactions, according to Zillow.
All three top a list of the country's top 25 worst housing markets in 2009. Provo, Utah, and Fort Lauderdale, Fla., round out the top five.
Behind the Numbers
To find them, we asked Moody's Economy.com to compile a list of the country's real estate markets that are furthest from recovery. Moody's looked at the country's Census-defined metro areas--including metropolitan and micropolitan statistical areas--with populations over 500,000 and prepared forecasts through 2011. They then compared them with prices in the second quarter of 2008, the latest figures available, to calculate how far prices will likely fall before reaching bottom.
In Palm Bay, real estate values are expected to fall another 41.4% before bottoming late next year. Miami could be in for a similar decline, and Fort Lauderdale is forecast to drop another 30%.
There are more familiar names on the worst-off list: Los Angeles and Phoenix where foreclosure signs and half-built exurbs serve as constant reminders of the real estate frenzy that lead to this crisis.
In Las Vegas, where speculation moved out of the casinos and into the property market, prices have another 43% to lose, according to Moody's.
In Phoenix, too many houses and too much speculation sent property prices into a tailspin two years ago. But the bottom may be in sight late this year--after another 31% drop.
Tucson, Ariz., also looks like it's close to flattening out--after an estimated 33% fall by the end of next year.
For other towns on our list, there's still plenty of time to get 'em while they're cold. Most of these troubled markets--including Santa Ana, Calif.,Orlando, Fla., and Jacksonville, Fla.,--won't even start to recover until next year or the year after.
That's even though real estate prices, on average, across the country should hit bottom by the end of this year, according to Moody's forecasts, after an average 15% drop.
It's not just the cities already facing massive foreclosures that are poised to further stumble; this year the gloom is spreading to the country's second-home markets.
Many of these places were doing well until recently as retiring boomers and investors bought property where they played. But the market for second homes followed Wall Street into a deep dive last year. Because the downturn hit many of these markets late, the worst is yet to come.
Just over a year ago, for example, property prices in Salt Lake City were still rising, even though they were falling just about everywhere else.
By the third quarter of 2007, the median home sold for $247,000 versus $203,000 in 2006. Prices haven't fallen much yet; the median price in late 2008 was $230,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.
But Salt Lake City, which is surrounded by some of the best ski resorts in the West, is just starting to feel the effects of the drop-off in second-home buying. Prices are set to fall 29% over the next two years, according to Moody's forecasts.
Provo, Utah, and Boise City, Idaho, are also headed down with the drop in nearby ski home sales, says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.
Honolulu hurt by the drop in buyers from Asia and California, is beginning a long and slow descent, with real estate prices forecast to drop 31% before hitting bottom in 2011.
There is another region where the worst may be to come: New York City-area metros. Housing values in Newark, N.J., could fall 26%.
Likewise, Edison, N.J., is also among the mid-sized metro areas expected to see the steepest drops this year. But the worst could be over by the end of 2009 for New York's satellite cities.
Manhattan, now at the epicenter of the financial crisis, is noticeably absent from the top 25 weakest markets list. So far, the city has been isolated from the popping bubbles in the rest of the country.
Property prices were rising in Manhattan until early last year. Zandi believes Manhattan could be spared a steep drop. He expects a fall of around 20%. Even if big bankers lose their bonuses, "Manhattan is still supported by international demand," he says.
That prediction may prove conservative. The value of new contracts signed have already dipped 15% to 20% in the fourth quarter, according to a Beige Book report from the U.S. Federal Reserve last month.
The report said much of the activity came from "desperate sellers," so it may not be a fair gauge of where prices will go from here.
Of course, that depends on how many more sellers become desperate.
America's Weakest Housing Markets - Yahoo! Real Estate
01-12-2009, 09:13 PM
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Thanks!
01-13-2009, 05:31 AM
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Those of you who are listening to realtors who are telling you things are picking up, please take heed. I don't see things really getting worse here (in terms of more inventory on the market) but I don't see them getting any better either........
01-13-2009, 07:10 PM
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Actually, I was thinking that there has been a lot more activity on this board lately. Maybe it's the first really cold winter in awhile, but there does seem to be increased interest in moving to S Florida.
01-13-2009, 07:14 PM
Location: southern california
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many are attempting to convince this is the crash and should buy now. not so. the bailout which is poorly managed will fail and then there will be a crash but it will be delayed. dont buy for 18 months. be prepared to pay cash.
01-14-2009, 06:21 AM
Location: America
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Huckleberry3911948
many are attempting to convince this is the crash and should buy now. not so. the bailout which is poorly managed will fail and then there will be a crash but it will be delayed. dont buy for 18 months. be prepared to pay cash.
that is exactly right. We have not hit bottom. things will get worse as more jobs are loss. Foreclosures have not let up and prime and near prime alt A loans will be resetting this year through 2012 and those are the bulk of the exotic loans (subprime was just a drop in the bucket). Usually it takes a equal amount of time to deflate a bubble as it does to inflate it. This started in 1998 and fell off in 2007 (2008ish if you are in NYC). This year is going to suck.
01-14-2009, 12:23 PM
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^^^ I was concerned with this as well, however, it seems the Fed have at least anticipated this. The Alt-A's are set to the one year Libor rate, with a typical margin of 2.25 above Libor at re-set. After all of the dramatic interest rate cuts of late, this has caused the Libor to drop to 1.86 this week (was around 4 last year at this time). This would mean someone who got, say a 5% fixed interest only loan in 2004 who re-adjusts this year would actually be looking at their interest rate *dropping* to 4.11% The interest rate drop doesn't result in a drop in pmt however because principal wasn't amortized previously, but the ultimate monthly payment is comparable and doable. So even if the mortgagee would not be able to refinance due to underwater mortgage, they could still hang on till things (eventually) improve. Dicey for sure, but not the inevitable doomsday I was predicting would occur before.
Since Alt-As have prime credit, I don't see the fall-out from this sector beng nearly as severe as the subprime group, and as long as the Fed can keep the rates low, may stave off a dramatic default in the Alt-As in the near-term (or hopefully for as long as they were offered - about 3 years). But of course, this is assuming homeowner doesn't lose their job or get sick or....
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/ratewatch/other-indices.asp
Last edited by fauve; 01-14-2009 at 12:34 PM ..
01-14-2009, 03:36 PM
Location: America
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01-14-2009, 08:24 PM
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^^^ I agree we are in a depression now - we could argue all day about the measures of this, but in the end, I'd agree with you. I am concerned that in the necessity to hold down interest rates to lessen the severity of the "depression", we are at much greater risk of a hyperinflation. This would be devastating, and I'm not sure which direction is worse or which way it might go. Talk about walking a tightrope.
01-15-2009, 05:27 AM
Location: America
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If we entered into hyperinflation interest rates would go to the moon. meh, I wish I had a special tv remote and i could fast forward through life until it things became decent again
sun sentinel article talking about broward's housing mess
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Urban houses (%)
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Mortgage status - with mortgage (%)
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Housing units in structures - 50 or more (%)
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Means of transportation to work - Drove car alone (%)
Means of transportation to work - Carpooled (%)
Means of transportation to work - Public transportation (%)
Means of transportation to work - Bus or trolley bus (%)
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Working at home (%)
Industry diversity
Most Common Industries - Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting, and mining (%)
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Occupation diversity
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People in Group quarters - Institutionalized population (%)
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People in Group quarters - Military disciplinary barracks (%)
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People in Group quarters - Nursing homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards, hospices, and schools for the handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals/wards and hospices for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospices or homes for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Military hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Other hospitals or wards for chronically ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Hospitals or wards for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Mental (Psychiatric) hospitals or wards (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Schools, hospitals, or wards for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
People in Group quarters - Institutions for the blind (%)
People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in military hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
People in Group quarters - Juvenile institutions (%)
People in Group quarters - Long-term care (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for abused, dependent, and neglected children (%)
People in Group quarters - Residential treatment centers for emotionally disturbed children (%)
People in Group quarters - Training schools for juvenile delinquents (%)
People in Group quarters - Short-term care, detention or diagnostic centers for delinquent children (%)
People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally retarded (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - Dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking other language at home (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)